Torrential rains and floods have killed more than 920 people, destroyed thousands of entire villages and homes, and submerged vast swaths of farmland in Pakistan since late June.
Experts fear the floods will force up to 1 million people to migrate to major cities, increasing pressure on urban infrastructure.
Officials are downplaying the chances of a mass exodus, saying the Pakistani government is ready to announce a “massive recovery package.”
Weeks of torrential rain have caused devastating floods across the country, displacing nearly 2 million, inundating vast swaths of farmland, washing away homes, livestock, and even schools!
The disaster could now trigger one of the country’s largest internal and external migrations since the devastating floods of 2010, aid agencies and local experts warn.
Internal migration has already begun
Migration has already begun in several areas as unprecedented rains and floods have left nothing behind for millions of people.
The ongoing floods have already affected an estimated 10 million people who depend on agriculture across the country, mainly in the northeastern province of Punjab, the country’s breadbasket.
The combination of rains and floods has affected farmers in many ways, destroying stored and harvested crops, farmland and livestock, and it could take up to 18 months for the land to become cultivable again.
This grim scenario left them with no choice but to migrate to the big cities to find a living. At least 1 million migrants could make this move in the short term.
The worst monsoons in recent years and the human factor
The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned last Friday that Pakistan is facing one of the worst monsoon seasons in recent years.
According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), at least 922 people have been killed and 1,047 injured since the end of June, while more than 10,000 houses have been partially or completely destroyed, mainly in Punjab and the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
In late August, India – also hit by heavy rains – opened the gates of major dams on rivers shared under the Indus Waters Treaty, warning Pakistan that releasing water could cause flooding downstream. Additional releases have further raised water levels, making the situation worse.
For the first time in Pakistan’s 78-year history, three eastern rivers – the Sutlej, the Jhelum and the Chenab – are simultaneously at “exceptionally” high flood levels, according to local authorities.
Monsoons affect glaciers
In Gilgit-Baltistan, flash floods from melting glaciers added another layer of devastation, destroying remote valleys and homes, water and power systems. These floods occur when rains or rising temperatures cause mountain lakes to overflow, releasing torrents of water and debris without warning.
The UN says climate change is accelerating the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, creating more unstable lakes and increasing the risk of such disasters.
Unpredictable and extreme weather events, declining agriculture, sea erosion, unemployment and prolonged droughts have caused widespread migration in Pakistan over the past decade. This process will be further accelerated by the recent floods.
It estimated that, although temporary migration will be greater, about 25% of the displaced people may never be able to return to their homes.
Government plans ‘massive recovery package’
In 2010, more than 2 million people were displaced by floods that swept across a fifth of the country. Of these, 70% were permanently displaced in major cities due to the destruction of their homes and farmland, according to Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change.
Another wave of mass migration to already overpopulated cities would not only strain their already strained infrastructure, but also fuel crime and exacerbate poverty, forcing much of the internally displaced population to migrate abroad, mainly to Europe.
Pakistan faces a huge challenge in terms of recovery and food security. Affected families have lost everything: their homes, fields, livestock and stocks. Farmers urgently need cash to buy seeds and other agricultural supplies.
Many communities, especially those downstream, have learned from the repeated floods of the past two decades. In some cases, they even see them as opportunities, as floods can regenerate the land and replenish natural groundwater reserves.
They are calling for loan waivers and payment of bills for affected households
Efforts are being made to set up a “special fund for agriculture” to help farmers, in addition to loan waivers and utility bills, given that the government cannot face the challenge of rehabilitation alone.
Meanwhile, Farid Abdulqadir Aiwar, head of the IFRC delegation for Pakistan, urged the international community not to ignore the tragedy that is unfolding “quietly but relentlessly” and destroying communities across the country.
“The crisis is far from over,” he told reporters on Friday. “Entire communities remain underwater, families have lost everything, and access to safe water and healthcare is becoming more urgent by the day.”
IMF to review whether government measures are sufficient to deal with crisis
The International Monetary Fund on Saturday expressed deep condolences for the loss of life caused by devastating floods in Pakistan and said an upcoming Extended Fund Facility review mission would examine whether the country’s fiscal policies and contingency provisions can effectively address the crisis, according to a senior IMF official.
“The mission will assess whether the fiscal year 2026 budget, expenditure allocations and contingency provisions remain sufficiently flexible to address the spending required by the floods,” said Mahir Binici, the IMF’s resident representative in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 11% on Monday as policymakers weigh inflation risks from crop losses against a slowing economy.
The IMF’s board approved a new $1.4 billion loan in May to help Pakistan strengthen its economic resilience to climate vulnerabilities and natural disasters. Disbursement of the funds is contingent on the successful completion of assessments under the EFF, the official said.
Hundreds of Dengue Cases Worsen Situation
On Thursday, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported 1,329 confirmed cases of dengue fever — one of several potentially deadly diseases that thrive after floods — in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
The office said Punjab province is “experiencing the worst monsoon flooding in four decades.”
Global warming has made the monsoon rains that caused previous floods in Pakistan this summer significantly more intense, according to a report published in August by World Weather Attribution (Climate change intensified heavy monsoon rain in Pakistan, exacerbating urban floods that impacted highly exposed communities), an organization focused on researching the links between climate change and extreme weather events.
