The United States is considering a plan to impose sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC in an effort to pressure President Vladimir Putin to accept a ceasefire with Ukraine, while at the same time pressuring China – in the context of tariff negotiations – and India through secondary sanctions to stop importing oil from Moscow and fueling its economy.
The United States is weighing the threat of sanctions on Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC as part of a set of options to pressure Vladimir Putin to accept a ceasefire with Ukraine, according to a report by Bloomberg. The sanctions on the two major oil companies would aim to reduce the Kremlin’s revenues.
Short-term effect
There is also concern about energy prices, as a spike in them would fuel inflation in the United States, and officials say Trump hopes that such a measure — if taken — will have short-term effect.
Other possible options include more restrictions on Moscow’s “shadow” fleet of oil tankers and additional tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, including China.
According to US government officials cited by the publication, the implementation of any measures may be gradual.
Trump has previously said that he prefers tariffs to sanctions, considering them more effective.
The Enormity of Rosneft and Lukoil
State-owned Rosneft, led by Putin’s close ally Igor Sechin, and privately-owned Lukoil are Russia’s two largest oil producers, accounting for nearly half of the country’s total crude exports, or about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of the year.
The threat of further sanctions is part of the U.S. negotiating tactic. Asked by Fox Business Network about possible sanctions against China, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “everything is on the table.”
Trump has already doubled tariffs on India to 50 percent on purchases of Russian oil, a move that some sources say helped bring Putin to the negotiating table in Alaska.
He has also repeatedly threatened unspecified sanctions against Russia, including this week.
“There will be — needless to say — very serious consequences,” Trump told reporters at the Kennedy Center on Wednesday, August 13.
But Trump has repeatedly backed down in the past from threats of tariffs, sanctions and other punishments. On July 29, he gave Russia 10 days to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.
But the August 8 deadline passed without further action from the American leader.
Record oil supply
The potential measures are being considered at a time when the oil market is expected to have a record surplus next year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
While this could allow some supplies to be taken off the market without driving up prices, Russia remains one of the world’s largest crude producers and the threat of supply disruption from it adds new geopolitical risk.
Then-President Joe Biden had refrained from imposing sanctions on major Russian oil companies when the 2022 war began, due to concerns about the impact on fuel prices in the US as his administration sought to contain inflation.
The United States and its G7 allies chose to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports in 2022, partly because of concerns about a potential surge in crude prices.
Brent crude hit $139 a barrel in the days after the war broke out, but is now trading around $70.
In January, the outgoing Biden administration imposed sanctions on Surgutneftegas PJSC and Gazprom Neft PJSC, the third and fourth largest Russian exporters respectively.
However, Asian markets, now the main buyers of Russian oil, largely ignored the restrictions, keeping demand for the sanctioned oil strong.
As a result, Moscow’s crude exports so far this year remain flat, according to Bloomberg calculations based on ship-tracking data.
The China Trade Deal and Oil Imports
US President Donald Trump said he would hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods for now over China’s purchases of Russian oil, citing progress he said had been made with Vladimir Putin on ending the war in Ukraine.
“Because of what happened today, I don’t think I need to think about that,” Trump said Friday (15/8) in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity after his meeting with Putin. “I might need to think about it in two or three weeks, but I don’t need to right now.”
Earlier this month, Trump threatened buyers of Russian energy with additional tariffs as a way to pressure Putin to hold peace talks with Ukraine. The US president has already doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% since August 27, citing Moscow’s oil purchases.
However, increasing tariffs on China would risk breaking a fragile trade truce that Trump and Beijing agreed to extend for another 90 days.
The deal called for a reduction in tariffs on both sides, which had reached astronomical levels in the spring, causing turmoil in global markets.
China: Russian oil imports legal and necessary
China has defended its Russian oil imports as legal and necessary for its energy security.
Trump failed to secure a ceasefire deal with Putin at their meeting in Alaska, but he said there was agreement on many points and called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to move forward with a deal with the Russian leader, who launched the military operation in 2022.
“I think the meeting went very well,” Trump told Fox News. While Trump has expressed strong displeasure over the past month with India for its purchases of Russian oil—which it then refined and resold to Europe at huge profit margins—and has imposed punitive tariffs on it for repeated sanctions violations, he has largely ignored the fact that China also imports huge quantities of Russian oil, quantities that are expected to increase even more in the coming weeks.
India’s Bowing to Trump Pressure
Now that India is reluctantly pulling out of its millions of barrels of Russian oil pipeline, Beijing is rushing to fill the void. According to Kpler, state-owned and large private Chinese refiners are buying cargoes of Russian crude for delivery in October and November as India curbs its imports.
Indian refiners—the world’s largest importer of seaborne Russian crude—were looking for alternative supplies worldwide.
Trump had demanded that India stop buying cheap Russian oil and doubled tariffs on Indian products, accusing New Delhi of fueling Russia’s “war machine.” That forced the Indians to modify their procurement strategies.
Indian state-owned companies have already bought large quantities of non-Russian oil for immediate delivery in September-October, extending a buying “boom” that began under Washington’s initial threats.
Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. sourced cargoes from the U.S., Brazil and the Middle East.
Beijing steps up on imports
As India slows, China accelerates. Chinese refiners bought about 13 cargoes of Urals and Varandey for delivery in October, as well as at least two cargoes of Urals for November. The last time China imported Varandey was in September 2023.
After intensified Ukrainian drone attacks that crippled several Russian refineries in Saratov, Novokuibyshevsk, Afipskiy and Ryazan, Russia turned to exporting 10–12 additional cargoes of Urals.
However, the increase in Chinese demand has not been able to fully compensate for the loss of Indian. Urals, which before the Indian withdrawal was trading at a premium of $2/barrel to Brent, is now trading at just $0.80/barrel.
Prices are expected to fall further if India continues to shun Russian oil—although, with India forced to turn to the free market, it is likely that international benchmark prices will move higher in the coming weeks.
