The recent escalation of tension in Libya, with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar adopting an increasingly provocative stance towards the European Union, is not an isolated event. Behind his moves, one can see the strategic guidance of Russia, which, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, is using Libya as a lever of pressure to weaken Europe. This is something that several media outlets in Europe have been writing about for several days.
Moscow, leveraging its long-standing support for Haftar, is attempting to exploit Europe’s geopolitical, economic and social sensitivities. The reasons that push Russia to pressure Haftar to open a front against the EU, Italy, Greece and Malta are multidimensional and are linked to Moscow’s broader strategy to destabilize the West.
Russia has a long history of intervention in Libya, supporting Haftar since the beginning of the second Libyan civil war. The presence of the Wagner Group, along with the deployment of advanced weapons systems such as anti-aircraft and armored vehicles, had significantly strengthened Haftar’s position against the Government of National Accord in Tripoli, which is supported by Turkey.
Despite the support that Haftar enjoys from countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Greece, Russia remains today the main player determining the Libyan leader’s movements. The reasons why Moscow is pushing Haftar into conflict with the EU are deeply rooted in Putin’s geopolitical strategy, which seeks to exploit Europe’s weaknesses at a time when the continent is facing multiple crises.
Moscow knows that the EU is at a critical juncture, facing the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, the weakening of defenses and the return of Donald Trump to power in the US. These challenges make Europe vulnerable, and Russia, through Haftar, is attempting to increase the pressure, creating new fronts in the European south. Libya, with its strategic location in the Mediterranean and its energy resources, is an ideal field for the implementation of this strategy.
Russia’s goal is to change Italy’s pro-Ukrainian stance
Giorgia Meloni, since her election as Italy’s prime minister in 2022, has surprised with her steadfast stance on Ukraine, despite initial expectations that her right-wing government would pursue a more pro-Russia policy.
Before taking office, many in Moscow believed that Meloni, with her nationalist positions and friendly relationship with Donald Trump, would reduce Italy’s support for Kiev. This expectation was reinforced by the fact that Italy, under previous governments, had maintained relatively friendly relations with Russia, particularly in the energy sector.
However, Meloni not only maintained but also increased Italy’s military and economic assistance to Ukraine, making her country one of the West’s most reliable allies on the Ukrainian front. This stance has caused great discomfort in Moscow, which sees Italy as a crucial player in the Mediterranean, both because of its geographical location and because of its historical influence in Libya.
Libya, as a former Italian colony and a major supplier of natural gas, is an ideal field for exerting pressure. Russia, through Haftar, seems to be trying to send a clear message to Meloni that continued support for Ukraine will have costs, both domestically and internationally. Haftar’s recent moves, such as obstructing European operations in the Mediterranean or escalating tensions in the maritime zones near Sicily, serve this purpose.
Meloni, however, has shown that she is not easily swayed by blackmail. Her stance is characterized by a balance between her nationalist rhetoric and her commitment to Euro-Atlantic alliances. Despite pressure from far-right circles within Italy, which maintain friendly relations with Russia, Meloni has managed to maintain public support, particularly due to her tough stance on immigration.
Moscow hopes that the ongoing crisis in Libya could weaken the Meloni government, leading to a more Russia-friendly Italian government at large, especially if the current government loses popular support due to the migration crisis or energy problems.
Russia’s strategy in Italy is not limited to direct pressure through Libya, but also extends to more indirect methods, such as fueling social discontent through propaganda and support for far-right circles. Moscow knows that Italy, with its history of political instability and deep social divisions, is vulnerable to such tactics.
Italy’s energy dependence on Libya adds another layer of pressure. The loss of cheap Russian gas has forced Italy to turn to alternative sources, such as Libya, which, however, remains unstable. Russia, through Haftar, could affect Italy’s access to Libyan energy resources, putting further pressure on the government. Rising energy costs, combined with social discontent over migration, create an explosive mix that Moscow hopes to exploit.
Greece: The pressure of migration
Greece is also a target of Russian strategy, as its geographical location and its strategic importance in NATO make it an obstacle to Moscow’s plans. Moscow is exploiting two main issues to destabilize Greece, the migration crisis and internal political conflicts.
The recent mass arrivals of migrants in Crete, mainly from Libya, have caused intense concern in the Greek government. Russia, through Haftar, seems to be facilitating the flow of migrants to Greece, knowing that migration is one of the most sensitive issues for Greek society.
The Greek government is in a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, the left-wing opposition is pushing for more “humanitarian” policies, accusing the government of harshness in managing migration. On the other hand, right-wing and far-right circles accuse the government of “de-hellenizing” the country with its policy, implying that the inability to control the borders threatens national identity.
It is characteristic that both of these political spaces, despite their differences, seem to converge on a pro-Russian rhetoric, either through criticism of European policy or through support for Moscow as a counterweight to the West. This convergence is not accidental. Russia has historically invested in supporting marginal political forces in Europe, through propaganda, funding and other means, in order to weaken democratic governments.
In Greece, Moscow therefore seems, cleverly and covertly, to exploit social dissatisfaction with immigration, reinforcing polarization and weakening government cohesion. The Greek government must manage not only the external pressures from Libya, but also the internal challenges arising from social discontent. And indeed, with the Coast Guard constantly accused of “drowning migrants” by the Left (and Turkey), and on the other hand, it receives harsh accusations that “it has become a transporter of migrants who come to take us over” by the Right. These two sides, we repeat, agree quite coincidentally on supporting Russia.
The crisis with the OPEKEPE scandal, which also caused the involvement of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, has further worsened the situation, as accusations of mismanagement and corruption have damaged the image of the government. Russia, knowing that economic stability is a key pillar of government legitimacy, exploits such “sky-falling” crises to intensify pressure on Greece.
A possible destabilization either through immigration or through internal scandals could lead to a more Russia-friendly government, even if it comes from the ruling party itself.
European Union: Further Weakening
More broadly, Russia could be said to be using Haftar as a means to undermine European unity and weaken the EU at a difficult time. Europe is already under pressure on multiple fronts. The war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, the weakening of defenses and the return of Donald Trump to power in the US are putting pressure on Brussels. Moscow is exploiting these challenges to further intensify the pressure through Libya.
The arrival of tens of thousands of migrants from Libya to Europe, Greece, Italy and Malta, is creating new sudden and asymmetric pressure on European governments, which are called upon to manage the social and political tensions that arise. The migration crisis is fueling social discontent across the European Union, and is giving a boost to far-right and Eurosceptic forces, which are often friendly with Moscow. The EU, with its limited capacity to respond effectively to these challenges, is at a disadvantage, as its lack of political cohesion and internal discord increase its vulnerability.
The EU’s defense crisis is another factor that Russia is exploiting. Over the past 30 years, Europe has significantly reduced its defense spending, relying on US protection through NATO. Trump’s return to power, with his threats to reduce the US military presence in Europe, has caused concern in European capitals.
We should therefore see Libya as a tool of Russian circles to distract Europe from the need to strengthen its defense capacity. The destabilization of the Mediterranean, through Haftar’s escalation of tension, is forcing the EU to focus on crises on its southern borders, weakening its ability to respond to the challenges of Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine.
The Turkish position
Haftar’s recent rapprochement with the Tripoli government and the Turks, who in turn maintain close relations with Russia, is changing the balance in Libya. This development favors Turkey, which, as a key supporter of Tripoli, is strengthening its position in the Mediterranean.
The developments allow Turkey to consolidate its influence in Libya, securing access to energy resources and strategic maritime zones. This development further weakens the EU, as Turkey, as a regional power with ambitions, exploits the destabilization caused by Russia to strengthen its own position. Greece, Italy and Malta are at a disadvantage, as Turkish influence in Libya is strengthened, while the EU remains divided and vulnerable. In short, the situation is a small Russian gift to Erdogan.
