The night of May 6-7, 2025, will be etched in the memory of those who closely follow the geopolitical turmoil in South Asia, as the skies over Kashmir lit up with the flash of missiles and the roar of fighter jets. Pakistan triumphantly announced the shooting down of five Indian fighter jets, three of which were believed to be the ultra-modern French-made Rafales, in a dogfight that many described as the largest and most violent in recent aviation history.
India, for its part, maintained a silence that fueled speculation, while social media and international media were filled with conflicting accounts, photos of wreckage and videos that, as it later turned out, were not always reliable (please also read the analysis titled “Pakistan’s reports of shooting down Indian Rafale and Mirage-2000 are fake news“)
The beginning of the conflict
Tensions between India and Pakistan are nothing new. Kashmir, the disputed territory that divides the two nuclear powers, has been the focus of decades of conflict. The recent escalation began in late April, when a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, in Indian Kashmir, left 26 tourists dead. India blamed the Pakistan-linked Jaish-e-Mohammed group and vowed retaliation. This culminated in Operation Sindoor, as it was called, which began on the night of May 6, with Indian Rafale and other fighter jets launching SCALP missiles and Hammer bombs on nine targets in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir, targeting, according to New Delhi, “terrorist infrastructure.”
Pakistan responded immediately. Artillery fire echoed across the border, while the Air Force took off to confront the Indian attack. According to Pakistani sources, 42 Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighters clashed with 72 Indian aircraft in a dogfight that lasted about an hour and spread over a radius of 160 kilometers. The result, Islamabad claimed, was the shooting down of five Indian fighters: three Rafales, one Su-30 and one MiG-29, as well as 25 Indian drones. India, however, did not confirm any losses, limiting itself to stating that its attacks achieved their targets without collateral damage.
The Battle in the Skies
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that Chinese-made J-10C fighters, equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles, played a decisive role, taking advantage of the superior range of their weapons compared to the European MICA and Russian R-77, used by the Indian Rafale and Su-30. The Pakistanis claimed that the shootdowns were carried out at beyond visual range (BVR) of 130-150 kilometers, which, if true, is a milestone for Chinese military technology.
On the other hand, India claimed that its Rafale jets, equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems and precision missiles, destroyed strategic targets, including the Subhan Mosque in Bahawalpur, which Indian intelligence agencies linked to terrorist organizations. However, the choice of a religious site as a target provoked anger in Pakistan, with Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif vowing “revenge for every drop of blood.”
Debris and controversy
Pakistan’s narrative of the Rafale downing has been bolstered by photos and videos circulating on social media. An AFP photographer captured debris with French inscriptions near Srinagar, while posts on X showed parts of the aircraft, including an engine that was said to be the Rafale’s M88.
However, India dismissed this as “fake news,” claiming that the debris belonged to a Mirage 2000, not a Rafale. Analysts such as Rick Joe have examined the photos circulating, and confirmed that the engine looked like an M88, but the lack of official reports from the Indian side has left the issue open.
The controversy over the photos escalated when Pakistan released a video purportedly showing the capture of an Indian pilot. The video, however, turned out to be fake, with many calling it a propaganda ploy. The revelation cast a shadow over the credibility of the Pakistani claims, with posts on X mocking the Pakistani Defense Minister, who reportedly admitted that he had relied on social media posts rather than military data. Meanwhile, India remained tight-lipped in its statements, with the Indian media outlet, The Hindu, publishing and then deleting a post about three fighter jets being shot down in the Akhnoor area.
Later, however, there was a presentation by the Pakistani Air Force that outlined the air battle and stated that it has evidence of the downing of the 5 Indian fighters, which comes from their “electronic traces and that they were lost after being hit by missiles”.
A French official, speaking to CNN, admitted the loss of a Rafale, noting that it was the first time that the aircraft had been shot down in combat. However, the lack of sufficient evidence from Pakistan, combined with Indian silence, creates a climate of uncertainty.
It should be emphasized that no fighter is “invincible” and that the outcome of an air battle depends on training, tactics and technology. Pakistan’s possible use of the Chinese PL-15 missile has also sparked debates about the effectiveness of Western weapons compared to Chinese ones. What is certain is that this conflict was not a typical dogfight, but a dance of power, propaganda and technology.
