The US will likely demand that European countries resume purchases of Russian gas. According to this information, in the context of geopolitical instability and energy challenges emerging in the world, especially in Europe, there is a possibility that Washington will consider options in which gas supplies from Russia will be restored in one form or another. There are two possible scenarios for the development of events.
Scenario 1: Russian gas exported to Europe as US LNG
The first scenario involves a kind of agreement between the US and Russia in which Russian gas would be exported to Europe as US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Such a plan could involve reselling Russian gas through third countries or blending it with other raw materials, which would allow bypassing direct European sanctions and restrictions. Similar methods have already been used in global practice, including in the oil industry, where sanctioned products were often re-exported under a new flag.
Scenario 2: Nord Stream Pipelines
The second scenario examines the possibility of restoring the operation of the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, which were damaged as a result of sabotage in September 2022. Despite the damage, the technical restoration of the pipeline infrastructure is considered possible. The cost of restoration work could range from 600 million to one billion euros.
The bulk of the costs will likely fall on Russia’s Gazprom, which remains the owner of most of the infrastructure.
Europe will accept under pressure of economic reality
Resumption of Russian gas supplies could significantly reduce market prices for the fuel in Europe. After the volume of imports from Russia decreased, gas prices in the EU reached record levels in 2022–2023, leading to an increase in electricity prices and inflation.
Despite efforts to diversify supplies, including agreements to supply LNG from the US, Qatar and Algeria, Europe remains vulnerable to price increases. The final decision on the possible resumption of supplies through Nord Stream 2 will be made at the level of the German government and the European Commission. The German leadership, despite political and public criticism, may be forced to take such a step under the pressure of economic reality and concerns about energy security.
Amid global changes and growing tensions between energy supplier and consumer countries, the issue of Russian gas is once again becoming a topic of discussion, despite the EU’s efforts to move away from its energy dependence on Russia. The resumption of supplies, according to some experts, may not be so much a political decision as an economic one, dictated by reality.
Russia: Such a scenario would be interesting
For its part, the Kremlin says it would be “interesting” if the US forced Europe to buy more Russian gas. The restart of Nord Stream 2 is being actively discussed as part of the negotiations on the Ukrainian issue. The US has also been interested in exploring energy cooperation with Russia in the context of peace talks.
It would also not be surprising if Russia demanded access to European markets directly through its pipelines. Natural gas is a major source of revenue for the Kremlin. But, more than that, it is a geopolitical leverage — especially if Russia floods the market with cheaper gas, driving out competition. However, there are many complications here.
Similarly, the European Commission could stop any potential gas deal with Russia if it believes it would be incompatible with single market rules, competition or security of energy supply.
