Two numbers, describing two little-known elements, are currently very high on the agenda of the escalating global trade war, with the United States on the one hand, and China on the other trying to exploit the need for rare earths: elements 31 and 32 on the periodic table.
Gallium and germanium are not the most well-known names. In fact, they have only recently started to be heard, while in our country, the former has mainly emerged with the large investment announced by Evangelos Mytilineos, of Metlen Energy & Metals.
These two elements are found in products that are essential to modern life—and a society without fossil fuels. With its impressive properties, gallium is used in semiconductor chips that go into everything from mobile phones to power converters in electric vehicles to LED lighting displays. The metal is also used in the manufacture of rare-earth magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines, in thin-film solar cells, and sometimes in commercially popular silicon solar photovoltaic cells, where it can help increase efficiency and extend lifespan.
As tensions with Beijing have risen, several companies operating in the U.S. and Canada are considering expanding production of rare earths to meet U.S. demand. While Canadian producers of critical minerals could be drawn into a new geopolitical conflict if Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs, American metals producers could see support from the new administration, which called for federal funding to be prioritized for critical minerals projects in a Day One executive order. Beyond the U.S. and Canada, industry observers say China’s export ban is fueling global interest in making critical minerals supply chains more diverse so that no country is choked off on materials vital to a high-tech, clean energy future.
This latest round of export bans puts a lot of pressure on critical minerals supply chain efforts, not just in the US but globally.
The impact of China’s export restrictions on Europe
China’s decision to impose restrictions on gallium exports to Europe has raised serious concerns about the EU’s supply chain and its long-term industrial competitiveness.
Gallium, one of the rarest metals, is crucial for the development of modern technologies such as solar energy, LEDs and semiconductors. China, which controls the vast majority of global gallium production, has recognised the strategic importance of this metal, making it one of the most powerful players in the rare metals market.
The export ban from China directly endangers EU industries, as European countries are heavily dependent on gallium imports for the production of critical technologies.
Gallium Price Rally
The immediate consequences of this decision include increases in production costs, delays in construction and a potential weakening of the competitiveness of European companies in the global arena.
Furthermore, gallium is used in applications related to sustainability and green energy, which makes its shortage even more worrying for the EU’s development strategies in this sector.
Germanium
Germanium, meanwhile, is used to refract light inside fiber-optic cables. In addition to helping form the backbone of the Internet, the metal’s excellent light-scattering properties make it useful for infrared lenses, semiconductor chips, and high-efficiency solar cells used by satellites.
There aren’t many substitutes for these two elements. Some silicon-based semiconductors lack gallium, and specialized glasses can replace germanium in some infrared technologies. Solar cells are often doped with boron instead of gallium. But these two metals have specific properties that often make them ideal materials. When it comes to clean energy, analysts estimate that there are no substitutes “within the range of material performance and cost-benefit ratio” that gallium offers.
The market for both metals is small — and dominated by China. In 2022, the world produced about 640 tons of low-purity gallium and just over 200 tons of germanium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. In recent years, China has accounted for almost all of the world’s production of low-purity gallium and more than half of refined germanium.
That’s partly because both metals are byproducts of other industries. Gallium is usually extracted from bauxite ores as they are processed to produce aluminum oxide, while zinc miners sometimes squeeze germanium from the waste produced during refining. China is also a leading producer of these common metals – and its government has made co-extraction of gallium and germanium a priority.
Market Size
According to a recent report by Fact.MR, the global gallium sales revenue is projected to grow from $2.45 billion in 2024 to $21.53 billion by the end of 2034. The market is projected to expand at a remarkable 24.3% CAGR from 2024 to 2034.
History
Gallium was discovered in 1875 by French chemist Paul-Émile (François) Lecoq de Boisbaudran through spectroscopic study and was named after Gallia, the old Latin name for France. Unconfirmed rumors from that time say that the name gallium may come from his name “Le Coq” which in Latin (gallium) means rooster, male turkey, gallus. In the Greek language the name “Gallion” as rendered “Gallium”, or “Gallium”, was mentioned in 1885 by the Professor of the University of Athens Anastasios Dambergis (1857-1920).
Most of the metal is produced today as a by-product during the processing of alumina derived from bauxite. A small percentage is produced from the processing of residues from the extraction of zinc from sphalerite and from fly ash.
Greece’s role
Metlen’s “Aluminium of Greece” facility is becoming a pioneer in the fight to wean Europe off Chinese gallium, with its production expected to reach 50 tons, a number that will supply all of Europe and allow it to be self-sufficient in a critical raw material with a variety of uses, from telecommunications to photovoltaics and semiconductors.
According to company executives, the facilities in Agios Nikolaos, Viotia, are a model case for Europe, in which alumina, aluminum, bauxite and an energy center are combined in one facility.
The criticality of this investment is also highlighted by the fact that large foreign companies from Europe, America and Canada have already expressed interest in the raw material that the Metlen plant will produce, given that the vast majority of gallium is produced in China. It is worth noting that the global production of gallium amounts to 750 tons per year, which makes the quantity produced by Metlen of critical importance. The gallium that Metlen will produce will be of 99.99% purity.
Metlen’s next moves
Last Thursday, the president and CEO of METLEN Energy & Metals, Evangelos Mytilineos, presented the group’s results for 2024 to analysts, making special reference to gallium. Mr. Mytilineos noted that this is a “golden investment”, with huge margins.
He stressed, however, that much will depend on China’s behavior. “When you are active in rare earths, you have to be particularly careful about the cost issue, as the market is controlled by a few players worldwide, who can set prices.”
He stressed that costs must be kept low so that any difficulties that arise can be addressed, emphasizing that “if prices stay where they are, gallium will be one of our company’s best businesses.”
