The Russian Armed Forces are encircling Pokrovsk, threatening to break through the defenses of the entire Donbas. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to counterattack to stop the advance of the Russian army south of Pokrovsk into the central part of Donbas. But the forces are unequal.
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian command used reserves, the Ukrainian forces were unable to retake the villages of Shevchenko and Novotroitskoye and allowed the Russian units to move further west. This could lead to the Russian troops encircling the city from the west as well (despite the fact that they have already reached the eastern and southern suburbs).
The situation on the southern side is no better: the Ukrainian forces, despite several successful counterattacks, were unable to unblock the roads leading from the north to the regional center of Velikaya Novoselka. At the same time, the Ukrainian army is losing the southern approaches to Kurakhovo and also lost the battle for the center of this city.
Pokrovsk
Russian troops reached the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk – the center of a pre-war region with a population of 400,000 people – in late summer, after another significant advance on the front west of Avdeevka. But then they did not storm the city: the direction of the attack shifted south, towards Kurakhovo.
The bulk of the Ukrainian troops retreated there – to the Selidovo area and further to the Kurakhovskoe reservoir. At the same time, a gap formed in the Ukrainian defense between Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo. In December, Russian troops attacked this weak point, breaking through the Ukrainian defenses 10 kilometers deep and reaching the Pokrovsk-Constantinople-Velikaya Novoselka road.
When Russian units reached this important road, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack in the Novotroitsky and Shevchenko areas. They quickly lost Novotroitsky, while fighting continues for Shevchenko, just three kilometers from the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk. Russians quickly mined the roads to the newly captured village, which prevents Ukrainian tanks from approaching the positions of Russian forces in populated areas.
At the same time, Russian troops are advancing towards Pokrovsk and east of Shevchenko, where they have reached the Solenaya River. This may negate the ability of Ukrainian forces to stop the Russian advance.

At the same time, the Russian army has already shown that a direct attack on Pokrovsk is probably not part of its plans. Units of Russian forces are advancing through Novotroitskoye further west. Most likely, the Russian command plans to cover Pokrovsk from the west. All the significant successes of the Russian offensive in recent months are associated with similar “semicircles” – this happened at Selidovo, Kurakhovo and Velikaya Novoselka.
Kurakhovo
The Russian army is close to capturing this important city in southern Donbass. Russian assault groups from the east reached the center of Kurakhovo and captured its administrative center. Only the huge industrial zone to the west of the city remains under the control of Ukrainian forces.
But this position is also threatened with encirclement. From the north of Kurakhovo, Russian troops captured the entire bank of the Kurakhovo reservoir and reached its dam on the Volcha River. They are now just two kilometers from the only road (Donetsk-Zaparozhye highway) connecting the west of the city with the hinterland.
Another group is approaching Kurakhovo from the south. In recent days, it has ended the months-long battle on the Sukhoi Yaly River. Eventually, the Ukrainian troops were surrounded in villages near the river, but most of them probably managed to escape through the last fortified area in the village of Uspenovka. Uspenovka itself was then captured by Russian troops.

West of Uspenivka, Russian Armed Forces have also reached Sukhoi Yaly. On the opposite side of the river is a ridge of hills with Ukrainian positions, but it is not entirely clear whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces have troops to defend the last line before Kurakhovo.
In the coming weeks or even days, Russian forces advancing from the south and north could meet along the Donetsk-Zaparozhye highway west of Kurakhovo.
Velikaya Novoselka
In late November, Russian troops invaded the eastern and northern outskirts of Velikaya Novoselka. From the north, they captured the villages of Razdolnoye and Novy Komar on the only road suitable for supplying the regional center. Other routes have either already been cut or are located on the west bank of the Mokrye Yaly River, the bridges over which were blown up in the first year of the war.
Ukrainian forces immediately counterattacked Razdolny and Novy Komar. Russian forces were driven out of the latter village, but soon made a new—this time successful—attempt to capture it.
Russian aircraft bombed the Mokrye Yaly pass, north of Novy Komar, which was used by the troops participating in these counterattacks.
At the same time, Russian units are advancing on Velikaya Novoselka from the west and south. To the south of the regional center, Ukrainian troops defending Makarovka in the Mokrye Yaly valley found themselves surrounded.

Toretsk
Russian troops complete the capture of the city of Toretsk, north of Gorlovka. The offensive on the city and neighboring workers’ settlements lasted several months (it began in July). Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves and their counterattacks immobilized the Russians in the city center, but by December the defenders’ forces were exhausted.
The Russian army captured high-rise buildings in the center of Toretsk, mines with waste heaps, and the Zabalka area in the southwest. Fighting for this area continued throughout the fall. A low-rise building to the north of Toretsk and several waste heaps behind it remain under the control of Ukrainian forces. The fall of Toretsk could open the way for the Russian army to the town of Konstantinovka. This offensive may soon be joined by a group that has invaded the town of Chasov Yar, west of Bakhmut.
Kursk Region
Judging by numerous videos, the long-awaited “allies” from the DPRK army are now participating in the Russian offensive. Units with different tactics from those adopted by the Russian Armed Forces – attacking with several dozen people at once in a fairly dense battle formation – have been spotted in several areas north, east and south of Sudzha.
It is assumed that North Korean troops actively participated in the attack on the village of Plekhovo, south of Sudzha, which Russian troops have been trying unsuccessfully to retake for several weeks. The village was captured, Russian forces (or “allies”) reached the Psel River west of Plekhovo. Now they threaten to cut off the Sumy-Shutsa highway, which supplies the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

From the north, troops that were not similar to the Russians advanced to the village of Malaya Loknya in an area where the Russian Armed Forces had previously suffered setbacks. Finally, north of Sudzha, another unit advanced towards the village of Nechaev.
The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the Russian successes near Plekhovo and Malaya Lokneya became more complicated. If the Russian troops drive the Ukrainian forces from Malaya Loknya, the village of Sverdlikovo west of Sudzha, or cut off the Psel pass between Plekhovo and Guevo, the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will probably have to think about evacuating the bridgehead in the Kursk region.