France: Political impasse deepens, frightening Europe

The developments in France have been dramatic in recent days, as the French government was overthrown, creating concern within the country about political instability and what this means for citizens, but also for the rest of Europe.

The overthrow was caused after opposition parties in the French parliament filed a motion of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who used special powers to force the passage of the social security budget on Monday.

Ungoverned EU States France and Germany

France is not alone in being torn apart by internal political strife. Germany will hold early parliamentary elections in February after its coalition government recently collapsed.

The EU as a whole is affected. What about the resolute show of strength and unity that Europe sought to maintain in the face of an expansionist, aggressive Kremlin?

France is, after all, Europe’s only major military power, along with the United Kingdom, while Trump’s return to the White House is filling the EU and Europe more broadly with anxiety.

How could his pent-up resentment over the US trade deficit with Europe and Europe’s (inadequate) defense spending explode into political reality?

Fears for the Economy in Europe

For France, there is no real end in sight to the political instability.

President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister, but even then parliament will remain divided between three mutually disapproving political blocs, capable of holding each other hostage over necessary reforms and a new budget.

And here is another reason why what happens in France matters beyond its borders: It is the second-largest economy in the eurozone. Its budget deficit is swelling well beyond EU standards. France’s public debt is similarly impressive.

That is worrying for French taxpayers who fear for the cost of living and uncomfortable for the rest of the eurozone, which is dreading the damage to its currency’s reputation if France gets out of control.

Germany, meanwhile, the EU’s largest economy, is also struggling. Its once-thriving export industry has sunk so low (even before Trump’s threatened import tariffs from January 2025) that it risks dragging its central and eastern European neighbors, long used by Germany as factories, into its economically depressed orbit.

Macron urges calm

Amidst all this, Macron is trying to present himself as a rock of calm.

While his prime minister went on French television on the eve of the no-confidence vote to warn of economic instability, appealing to French lawmakers to put the country above party politics and support him and his budget for spending cuts, Macron struck a markedly different tone.

“We shouldn’t scare people with these things, we have a strong economy,” he said.

“France is a rich, stable country, which has made many reforms and is sticking to them, which has stable institutions, a stable constitution.”

Macron was speaking from Saudi Arabia, where he wrapped up a three-day visit before returning to Paris shortly before the vote.

Macron’s resignation is being called

The deadlock in the French parliament is the result of early elections he called in France this summer, in which his party, Renaissance, did not do so well…

Under French law, new parliamentary elections cannot be held for at least a year, meaning there may not be a new austerity budget until late summer/autumn 2025, even if the new elections produced a clear political result – something that polls do not indicate.

And so, among Macron’s now numerous political opponents, there are growing calls for his resignation, arguing that this would resolve the political deadlock in France, the BBC points out.

Macron describes the idea of ​​an early presidential election – his full term ends in 2027 – as “political fantasy.” He insists he was voted in by the French public to serve his interests.

Marine Le Pen

But one politician who has plenty of reason to push for his swift political exit is Marine Le Pen of the nationalist National Rally Party, who has been a presidential candidate in the past.

She is under investigation for embezzling EU public funds – something she denies. If found guilty, however, she could be banned from holding political office for five years. That would mean she would have to stay out of the 2027 French presidential election.

The verdict in her case is expected at the end of March.

If Macron steps down now, a presidential election would have to be called in 30 days, giving Le Pen the chance to run and – this time, she hopes – win.

Politically, socially, economically, much depends inside and outside France on what happens next.