Trump knows very well that the Europeans did not want him and seems to be a particularly vindictive character. Therefore, the policy that the new American president will follow will not be friendly to Europe.
This is expected to cause great difficulties and a very large economic cost to the EU. Costs that will necessarily be covered by increasing taxes everywhere in order to finance most of the needs that will be created by limiting relations with the US. From the need to strengthen European defense to the need to support the trade deficits that will be created if tariffs are imposed on European products sold in the US.
The Ukraine front is also a huge thorn in the side of the Europeans, who have ruined their relations with Russia, and if the US withdraws from supporting Ukraine, Europe will be powerless against a Putin who will have whetted his appetite and who will also be rather vindictive towards the Europeans.
Europe has not learned to rely on its own resources, but has been leaning heavily on the American shoulder. Now where will it lean? On the Chinese?
These are the fears expressed by European economic and political analysts. The most optimistic, however, see a good thing in this development, that Europe will finally be forced to unite and stand on its own two feet, but this is by no means certain because there is no inspiration, no vision and no personality in the European leadership to achieve this – except for Mario Draghi, who cries in the wilderness, but who has no role.
What exactly are Europeans afraid of now?
It is considered very likely, if not certain, that Trump will stop supporting Ukraine and that he will impose tariffs on European products imported into the US. It is unknown what else he will do, but in any case, what is expected based on his statements is that American support – economic, commercial and military – to Europe will be limited. And this means that Europe will have to fill the gaps in all three areas and stand on its own two feet without the cooperation of the Americans for the first time since World War II. Something that is extremely difficult for Europeans, since to achieve this they will have to make decisions that they have avoided until now. So things for Europe at the moment seem extremely difficult, especially given that it has found itself with Russia opposite and with all the rapidly developing countries on its side.
What will the EU need to do?
First, face the cost of reducing its exports to the US. The first victim is expected to be the European car industry, since European cars will become much more expensive for Americans due to the tariffs, as will all other European products. And ultimately they will be the most expensive of all, since they also have competition from all the Chinese ones – which, by the way, are no longer second-rate as they used to be, on the contrary, they are constantly improving and in many cases are better than both European and American ones.
What will the EU need to do?
First, face the cost of reducing its exports to the US. The first victim is expected to be the European car industry, since European cars will become much more expensive for Americans due to the tariffs, as will all other European products. And ultimately they will be the most expensive of all, since they also have competition from all the Chinese ones – which, by the way, are no longer second-rate as they used to be, on the contrary, they are constantly improving and in many cases are better than both European and American ones.
Europe has long lost its power at the international level against the large developing countries and has been limited to the role of “legislator”, setting strict rules on everything – from capital markets to the use of technology. But the retreat of globalization that Trump invokes, and which he can impose internationally, reduces both the possibilities and the power of the “legislator”. Europe is therefore expected to have great difficulty adapting to the new conditions and covering all the costs that will be created by the change in US policy.
Waiting
But to be more realistic, any prediction about what will happen in the world and the global economy is currently unfounded. First of all, because we do not know which of all the things Trump said during the election campaign will be implemented and to what extent. Because it is one thing, for example, to impose 5% tariffs and another 20% on European products.
At this moment, we do not know at all what the new president will do, nor can we of course predict the impact that his policies will have – neither in the short term nor in the long term – on the rest of the world. Nor can we say with certainty what exactly he will do with Ukraine and Russia, nor what he will do with Netanyahu and the Middle East and Iran front. Everything that is heard and written is speculation, in many cases well-founded since they are based on his election campaign announcements, but in politics, there are things that are said but not done and things that are done but not said.
