President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated: “Turkey is undoubtedly the country that reacts most strongly to Israeli atrocities in the world and takes the most concrete measures, including the suspension of trade.” He added that as a state and government we have severed all relations. And from this statement alone, it is possible to conclude that relations between the two countries have been definitively severed. It remains to be proven in practice, the departure of diplomatic delegations from both sides, at the level they are maintained, returning to their countries “for consultations,” as is usually referred to in diplomatic language.
The big question that now arises is why Turkey chooses this specific point in time to definitively break off relations with Israel. The basic facts of the problem are, on the external front, the election of Trump and, on the internal front, the flirtation of the Islamic-nationalist Erdogan-Bahçeli government with the Kurds. This second parameter is part of the effort to attract them, with the ultimate goal of changing the Turkish Constitution, which will allow Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stay in power… for life.
In this mission, the role of “hare” is played by the nationalist (ed. moderate) Davlet Bahçeli (MHP), who called for the release of the historical leader of the PKK, Abdullah Öcalan, in exchange for the organization renouncing terrorism and laying down its arms. This was followed by the – controversial and convenient according to some analysts – terrorist act at the emblematic Turkish aerospace industry TUSAS. Analysts leave open the possibility that the terrorist act was the work of the Turkish “deep state”.
But if it is not, the case is combined with the Turkish belief, which reaches the limit of the persecution syndrome, that the country may be attacked by Israel! Also, that the Kurds in the wider region, especially those in Syria and Iraq, are the henchmen of the Israelis, who use them in an attempt to break up Turkey!
However, in our opinion, the external factor offers a more convincing explanation for the Turkish stance, namely the initiative of a total rupture of bilateral relations. Trump’s election was initially welcomed by Ankara, with Erdogan calling the new president “his friend”. However, the choice of individuals to fill key positions such as the State Department and the Pentagon has almost sown panic in Ankara, as it comes to adding to the privileged relationship that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu maintains with Trump.
Ankara’s guardianship of Hamas may refer to finding a pretext to welcome its leadership, after its expulsion from Doha, Qatar. That said, we risk the assessment that the Turkish action is a preventive move, in view of what it expects: that all issues in the region will be raised from the American side, with the security of the Jewish state at the top. The issue of the Kurds will certainly be raised, where Israeli influence in Washington may bury any Turkish ambitions to influence developments.
Alternatively, at least given the negative developments, Turkey is attempting to buy time. So the Turkish severance of relations with Israel aims to attract Washington’s attention, albeit in a negative way, with the aim of pushing towards the start of discussions, where the Erdogan regime has demonstrated… great ability in backstabbing. Always with the appropriate compensation.
Ultimately, the State Department bureaucracy demonstrated… Jovian patience, adopting the convenient position for their prejudices, that the endless time, combined with Erdogan’s advance announcement that he would leave, would solve the problem. They are still unable to understand that the changes in the Turkish geostrategic approach towards “Eurasianism” have much more permanent characteristics than those believed in Washington.
In short, this is an aggressive move by Ankara with defensive characteristics, which in view of the discussion-negotiation it expects with the new American administration, is rushing to adopt a maximalist position, which will give it room for flexibility. However, the equation is now extremely complex for Turkey and the broader geostrategic environment has changed.
They understand this in Ankara and that is why the nervousness has “hit red”. At least, they understand that at this time they cannot have all fronts open. Something that at a tactical level favors the Greek-Turkish…
