All indications are that under the Moscow-Pyongyang strategic agreement, North Korean soldiers will indeed be deployed to Russia but not to fight in Ukraine.
In Russia for training 12,000 soldiers from North Korea
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service has released satellite images purported to show North Korean troops at the Sergeevka training ground in Primorsky Krai, near Vladivostok, and at a military installation in Khabarovsk, Russia.
Additional North Korean troops are said to be stationed in Blagoveshchensk. Before being deployed to Russia, these troops were reportedly trained in North Korea under the personal supervision of Kim Jong Un. The photo of the military installation in Ussuriysk reportedly shows about 400 North Korean soldiers on the ground while the photo of the base in Khabarovsk shows about 240 men during training.
Both photos, neither of which contain evidence of the presence of North Korean troops, are said to have been taken on October 16. About 1,500 North Korean special forces were initially transferred to Russia, with more expected in the near future. The total number included in various reports points to 12,000 troops being prepared for deployment on Ukrainian soil.
Russia’s strategic partnership with North Korea has reached serious proportions. It is claimed, again without any corroborating evidence, that troops are being trained and equipped with Russian weapons, uniforms and possibly fake IDs to join Russian forces.
Possible effect
If detachments of North Korean troops do deploy to bases in Russia for training and eventual integration with Russian forces, the impact on the war with Ukraine could be significant. Interesting, however, is the assessment that Russia will not use the North Korean soldiers as a reserve and not deploy them on the Ukrainian front.
Russia has so far carried out its Invasion of Ukraine without using all the arrows in its quiver. Despite the Western rhetoric of a “total Russian war against Ukraine”, Russia has not used its full force since the start of the operation on 2/24/2022.
And it is doing this not because it is soft on the Zelensky regime but because it is keeping its main forces as a deterrent against a possible NATO military intervention. Russia uses a combination of timing and deterrence to achieve its military goals.
It uses minimal forces in Ukraine so it can confront NATO at any time. It relies on its wealth of natural resources, excellent manufacturing capabilities, world-class engineering skills and the resilience of its people to slowly but surely crush its adversary, thereby preventing NATO intervention with its spare conventional military power.
North Korean soldiers shield and reserve against NATO aggression
North Korean troops, subordinate to the Russian military, would allow Moscow to deploy more Russian troops to the battlefront without reducing its strength.
Moreover, Russia may be able to avoid additional conscription, which would have negative effects on its productive capacity – civilian and military – and damage its economy in a way it cannot afford.
Russia is a transcontinental state spanning Europe and Asia with an area of more than 17,000,000 square kilometers. To secure its borders, Russia needs to deploy troops at facilities along its length and breadth.
Russia faces adversaries on significant parts of its borders. In addition to Ukraine (1,576 km), you should be on the lookout for
- Finland (1,309 km),
- Norway (196 km),
- Estonia (324 km),
- Latvia (332 km),
- Lithuania (280 km) and
- Poland (232 km km).
- And not to be overlooked is Alaska a huge swath of US territory right across the street from Russia.
Moscow could deploy North Korean troops to military installations across the country in order to free up Russian troops for operational purposes.
Long training period
Combat training will be long and arduous. It is unlikely that the required time frame will be less than one year. In addition to using Russian firearms, North Korean troops will have to be trained in the battlefield communication system used, drones, artillery fire and air support.
They should be adapted to the terrain (muddy conditions), weather conditions and operational tactics. It is also necessary to acquire a sufficient understanding of the Russian language. The way Russia deploys North Korean troops appears to be incremental.
Besides, Moscow has no reason for such hasty development on the Ukrainian front, where it is very close to total victory and Kiev is one breath away from collapse. North Korean troops in Russia are playing a role that is less challenging than that of hundreds of US and NATO troops helping Ukraine launch missiles and drones to kill Russian soldiers. French officials have hinted at an intention to deploy French troops to Ukraine without specifying the specific role they would be assigned. Russia’s response seems symmetrical.
Final conclusion: With a shield from North Korea, Russia will confront NATO
Russia’s strategic partnership treaty with North Korea is in some ways similar to the friendship treaty signed by India and the Soviet Union before the Bangladesh Liberation War in December 1971. The friendship treaty was intended to prevent the intervention of China or the USA.
Likewise, the strategic partnership treaty is likely aimed at preventing NATO intervention. It is unlikely that North Korea signed the treaty in response to what has already happened. No country commits its troops to another state’s war just for war experience. There is always a serious safeguard.
Ukrainian forces are retreating. Western weapons cannot compensate for the demographic deficit faced by Ukrainian forces. NATO officials and US politicians have repeatedly said that allowing Ukraine to lose is not an option.
If this is true, the only option is to escalate the conflict. Training North Korean troops for combat is likely Russia’s way of preventing such an escalation.
