On August 6, Ukrainian elite forces suddenly and not for the first time invaded Russian territory in the Kursk region, taking Russia’s small and weak border forces by surprise.
They advanced to a depth of about 30-35 KM occupying an area of about 500-600 square kilometers, perhaps a little more, according to Western sources.
For its part, Moscow said that its military has halted the Ukrainian advance, having moved forces from inside the country rather than from the operational fronts, stabilized the front and begun offensive operations to neutralize the invasion and is actively fighting to take control of these areas and settlements captured by Ukrainian forces, while at the same time evacuating the population in that area, to the east to safer areas and that means a lot for what is to come.
According to the latest information, the Ukrainian force that entered Russian territory is estimated to be between 12,000 and 14,000 men, i.e. about six Brigades, heavily equipped with tanks, TOMA, armored vehicles, A/C Artillery, A/A systems, Commando Units and with many UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) of various types and missions.
This force is quite strong and shows that it is not a sensationalist business, but it is estimated that its aspirations are much larger. Until now, Ukraine has not officially stated what the ANSK (Objective Purpose) of the operation in question is.
So the questions that remain have to do with Ukrainian strategy, the Russian response, and the long-term impact it may have – or may not have – on the overall war.
Also, regarding the chances of future negotiations, the effect on morale on both sides, and whether this will encourage supporters of Ukraine, including the US, to help reactivate what looked like a hopeless and finished war effort against Ukraine.
Questions and answers
The first question we must consider is how did such a large force manage to invade Russia, even in an area outside of operations, without being detected by the Russian side, when the area is monitored by satellites, MEAs, Border Units and other electronics systems.
There are explanations, like they didn’t get word of them due to electronic countermeasures, they saw them but underestimated the potential danger, or that the Russians set a trap for them, had the information and let them in to exterminate them.
In our estimation, at a time when Ukraine at the front is constantly retreating, facing dangerous shortages in manpower and equipment, the use of elite units in an action of a suicidal nature as it seemed at first, is a criminal mistake.
These Units were to be the critical last reserves of the AFU (Ukrainian Forces) to contain or stop the Russian advance in critical areas of the defense of the locations. In a war of attrition, manpower and equipment are essential.
The Ukraine offensive brings to mind the daring German offensive of 1944-45 that surprised the Allies, made gains, but ended in defeat in the Battle of the Bulge, wasted much-needed manpower and equipment, and was the last major German offensive to a few months later they capitulated unconditionally.
Who or what purposes does the invasion serve?
Until now there is no clear answer, with many contradictory and ambiguous statements from officials, while President Zelensky Zelensky in a Telegram video stated that “the goal is to create a neutral zone on the territory of Russia”!
Ukrainian officials have stated that Ukraine’s operation in the Kursk region does not have long-term territorial goals, but instead aims to create theater-wide operational and strategic pressure on Russian forces.
The invasion of Kursk appears to have been based on the assumption that Ukraine can exploit Russia’s thinly manned border defenses to seize large swathes of land – including the Kursk nuclear power plant, presenting Moscow with a fait accompli, a bargaining chip, a blackmail, especially with the seizure of the Kursk nuclear power plant, but this failed from the first two days.
Estimates
The invasion of Ukraine appears to have been a major strategic blunder, which will hasten its defeat.
The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty exchange ratio, not the capture of territory that Western commentators obsess over. According to professors John Mearsheimer and R. Wendell Harrison, the casualty-to-exchange ratio in the Kursk offensive is decidedly in Russia’s favor for two reasons.
1. Ιt has caused relatively few Russian casualties because the Ukrainian military effectively occupied undefended ground.
2. Οnce alerted to the attack, Moscow quickly brought massive air power to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were out in the open and easy to hit. Not surprisingly, the attacking forces lost many soldiers and a huge percentage of their equipment.
To make matters worse, the AFU leadership withdrew, as we mentioned above, top combat units from the front lines in eastern Ukraine, where they were absolutely needed.
It’s no wonder – given the poor tactical move that is the Kursk invasion in my view, that the Russians were taken by surprise, apparently thinking it couldn’t happen.
It appears that for now the operation has served at least one primary purpose, to embarrass the Kremlin and dramatically change the conventional narrative about the war. This, in the initial stages, he succeeded. Then this estimate is weakened by the huge losses of personnel and material on the Ukrainian side.
There are reports of hundreds of damaged armored vehicles, tanks, guns, as well as thousands of human losses. Most informed American strategists advised Ukraine in 2024 to remain on the defensive to preserve its forces and thus adopt a “long war” strategy.
The Ukrainian invasion of Russia, too, is a sideshow intended to boost Ukrainian morale and the West’s confidence to continue supporting Kiev, but will not affect the outcome of the war, according to professors Stephen Walt, Robert and Renee Belfer of Yale University.
It is estimated that the Ukrainian forces have possibly occupied about 1000 square kilometers of insufficiently protected Russian territory.
Russia’s total land mass is over 17 million square kilometers, which means that Ukraine now “controls” 0.00588% of Russia, per the Yale professors.
On the other hand Russian forces currently hold about 20% of Ukraine and the failed Ukrainian offensive last summer shows how difficult it will be for Ukraine to recapture these areas. It is relatively early to fully assess the results and operational significance of the Ukrainian invasion of Russia.
Furthermore, the significance of these operations will not emerge in isolation, but will matter to the extent that they relate to a series of subsequent Russian and Ukrainian operations over time.
Finally, the Ukrainians claim that they did not inform their allies about this operation, for reasons of secrecy, and the Russians refute this view, saying that the US ordered the operation and that the forces involved had been trained in Britain a month before.
They also present videos of soldiers, in Ukrainian uniforms, who speak to each other in fluent English and also refer to French, British, Polish, etc. mercenaries or even active military personnel of these countries. The climate is getting even heavier for Ukraine because Germany, according to Euronews, has issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor who was allegedly in the group that blew up the Nord Stream and that the German government is cutting off aid to Ukraine .
Evaluation of the situation
After the above, it is estimated that the invasion may be:
A. A little embarrassment for Putin.
B. Additional evidence that Russia is too weak to invade the rest of Europe, as is the narrative so far cultivated in the West to justify its leadership’s political stance on unbridled aid to Ukraine.
C. The fate of Ukraine will be determined by what happens in Ukraine, not by this operation. And unfortunately for Ukraine, the latest developments on the 1000 km war front are dramatic, since the Russians broke through the second line of defense and, it seems, important and critical cities of strategic importance such as Toresk, Pogrovsk, Chasiv Yar and Volendar, they will fall into the hands of the Russians.
D. Even American military analysts believe that the attack in question will fail completely, the Russians will retake the area in question, with a harsh offensive-levelling action, for this reason they removed the population from this area, in order to implement maximum firepower, no qualms.
E. The misguided waste of manpower and equipment by Ukraine and the lack of replenishment by the West will sooner or later lead to the collapse of the front and the capitulation of Ukraine possibly unconditionally and without negotiations, as the Russian leadership states that it is not now a matter of negotiation after the invasion of Kursk, which again proves fatal, as in World War II.
