The events and especially the results of the Russian war in Ukraine are directly linked to the continuation of Russian influence in the Mediterranean region, mainly in Syria and Libya.
Russia will resort to implementing a strategy that it follows in other regions as well, seeking to consolidate its position in the eastern Mediterranean.
Russian naval presence in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean depends on the strength of the fleet in the Black Sea, so the war in Ukraine, which drains Russian resources, has a double effect.
President Vladimir Putin has been able to build a strong presence in the eastern Mediterranean thanks to his tighter control of the Black Sea, which has allowed him to move naval forces between the two regions. As a result, the two regions have merged into a single geopolitical space, with increasingly intertwined security dynamics.
Russia is moving to redefine its role in the Eastern Mediterranean
As a result, it indicates Russia’s intention to redefine its role in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea region, especially since the war in Ukraine has undermined its ability to project influence.
Unless a complete victory in Ukraine is achieved, Russia’s influence in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Middle East will likely decline over time.
It is possible that Russia will resort to generalizing its strategy in Libya and other areas where it seeks to strengthen its influence in the Middle East and Africa with great strategic impact.
The war in Ukraine has forced Russia’s military industry to focus primarily on meeting the needs of the war rather than exporting weapons to its allies.
Since Russia’s military presence and influence in the Mediterranean depends on the strength of its fleet in the Black Sea, the fallout from the war in Ukraine will have a double impact on Moscow’s influence and position in the Mediterranean and the Middle East in the near future.
The war in Ukraine disabled nearly a third of Russian warships in the Black Sea. Furthermore, since Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships in February 2022, the Kremlin has been unable to switch naval means between the two areas.
Changing the balance of power in the Caucasus
Russia managed to change the balance of power in the Black Sea and strengthen its influence in the Western Balkans and the South Caucasus in 2014 after annexing the strategically important Crimean peninsula. This came after it took control of Georgia’s breakaway Abkhazia after a brief war in 2008, after which it was able to control nearly two-thirds of Georgia’s Black Sea coast.
Since then, the Kremlin has worked to modernize a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus to accommodate larger warships and to expand the Khmeimim air base in Latakia and turn it into a major launch pad for operations in Africa.
Putin’s vision of restoring Russia’s status as a world power has long rested on dominance in the Black Sea and exerting influence in the Mediterranean and Middle East.
It is true that Putin was very successful in the years leading up to all-out war against Ukraine in 2022.
