It was a move that really sent shockwaves through the entire French political system, starting with the members of the national assembly themselves who were trying to think through all the practicalities involved in the decision to dissolve, from what to do with their associates and secretaries to whether they will have access to their offices, besides of course the need to expose themselves again to the popular will, much sooner than they had anticipated.
Emmanuel Macron himself used quite “Gollic” terminology and style in the televised speech watched by more than 15 million French people, in which he announced the decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call parliamentary elections for June 30. Essentially, he tried to give the image of the leader who is ready to take his responsibility in front of history. In this case, the responsibility to be the great bulwark against the rise of fascism.
But at the same time everything shows that we are dealing with much more of a big risk, a move that belongs more to a bold gambler than to a politician who believes that he represents the authentic model of leadership that not only France but the whole of Europe needs . It is no coincidence that most comments in France have been rather negative, with many arguing that Macron is plunging France into political chaos just so he can present his party, which did not do very well in the elections, as the pole of stability, oblivious to the possibility that his move would set off a chain of unpredictable upheavals in the French political system.
Macron’s calculation
Essentially, Macron’s calculation seems to be the following: at the moment Marine Le Pen’s National Alarm has 88 MPs in the French National Assembly and although it got an impressive 31.5% in the European elections, it will be particularly difficult to have a sufficient number of electable MP candidates in a electoral battle where always at the local level not only the party identity of the candidate counts but also his personality and recognition.
Then he believes that by raising the issue of the risk of the rise of fascism he will be able to have a greater rally around his party, which in any case had not managed to achieve a majority even in the previous parliamentary elections, with the result that France in the last two years has been governed by a minority government. In addition, he believes that in this phase he will more easily convince the Republicans, the main formation of the French right, to move in a direction of partnership with him.
At the same time, it is clear that Macron took into account the fact that the rifts in the French left are very deep, as the NUPES coalition that was formed following a proposal by Insubordinate France and Jean-Luc Mélenchon will hardly be repeated, as especially his Socialists Rafael Glucksman who got 13.83% do not want an alliance with a formation they consider too “radical”.
The big risk: the Far Right coming to power
However, Emmanuel Macron’s calculation carries a key risk. It is clear that the influence of the Far Right has risen in France, if we take into account that Reconquest, the formation created by Eric Zemur but currently led by Marion Marechal (granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen and niece of Marine Le Pen) took 5 .47%. This means that it is very likely that he will get several MPs, while it is not at all certain that in the second round of the parliamentary elections, a reflex will work everywhere to vote for whoever is the opponent of the candidate of the National Alarm. In addition, the processes have already begun for the possible cooperation of the National Alarm with the Recapture of Marion Maresal in an effort to have as “solid” an electoral presence as possible for the whole of the Far Right.
And then France risks indeed being faced with a far-right government and a not-so-easy cohabitation with Macron in the presidency. Even worse, given that Macron cannot claim the presidency in 2027, since he will have already completed two terms and given that he will not be able to show a corresponding leadership personality from his own area, it is very likely that we will see the National Alarm to complete their rule by also claiming the Presidency.
And of course, although to a large extent the ground for a far-right government of France has to some extent been paved mainly by the very fact that it has already managed to make part of its agenda part of the political mainstream, it does not cease to be a real shock as a whole for the French political system.
Let’s not forget that unlike Italy where variants of the extreme right have been participating in government schemes since the 1990s, until now there has still been a certain “sanitary zone” around the National Front and its evolution into National Alarm. It is no coincidence that there was even a market reaction in this context.
A party with fascist origins
Despite the effort of Marine Le Pen in particular and the young party president Jordan Bardela to present an image of the National Front / National Alarm as a “systemic” force and within the framework of the French Republic, the truth is that it is a party with origins and deeply anti-democratic ideology. First of all, it has as its starting points the nostalgics of collaboration with the Nazis, the nostalgics of “French Algeria” and not a few representatives of variants of neo-fascism. At the same time, the aggressive nationalism and intense racism that stamp the political discourse of the National Alarm and the whole scheme of the supposed need to “regenerate” the French nation together with a particularly authoritarian conception of the exercise of power (the National Front / National Alarm has a long tradition of supporting police repression and being hostile to major social movements), strongly suggest an active fascist dimension to his politics, even if he adheres to the rules of the parliamentary game.
All of this is understandably of great concern in a France riven by intense internal conflict and where the issue of racism is one of the most serious issues causing social tension and conflict.
Let us not forget that French society remains strongly divided and conflicted, without forming a large majority social coalition. The influence of the Far Right may have extended significantly to parts of the traditional working class, but at the same time a large part of wage labor and the youth, as well as sections of the population with immigrant and colonial origins remain particularly hostile towards it, with the big question is what will happen to layers of the middle class that formed the backbone of Emmanuel Macron’s influence.
Calls for unity
It is no coincidence against this background that both from the side of various politicians of the Left and from the left-wing labor confederation CGT itself the slogan of “Popular Front” has already been dropped, a direct reference to the government of the Left in 1936 which in the collective consciousness of France has been identified with great social conquests. On the other hand, from the side of the socialist party the line is “unity of the left”, but under the leadership of the socialists.
In any case, it is clear that France is entering an uncharted landscape compared to what we have seen so far. This means that Emmanuel Macron’s gamble may prove to be the catalyst for transformations that may have long been seen as possibilities, but can now take shape and form.
