We have reached no longer “if they will be elected” but “what will be their percentage”. The reason for the rise that the Far Right is expected to register in the upcoming European elections.
- In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Alarm is expected to have a clear lead, showing that it is the most solid political pole.
- In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy will remain the most powerful political pole in the country,
- In Austria the FPÖ is also the most powerful political pole in the country,
- The same is happening in the Netherlands, as in Austria.
- At the same time, despite being hit by scandals, the Alternative for Germany is expected to be in second place.
- At the same time, we must not forget that Viktor Orbán’s party remains dominant in Hungary.
- In Greece, where in 2023 the three far-right parties that entered the Parliament took a combined total of close to 13%, it will be interesting to see how far they will reach in these elections, after the choice of the conservative government to raise high “patriotic” issues by provoking nationalist reflexes.
It is clear that this rise of the Far Right will have immediate consequences, not just register as an electoral dynamic, the subject of political science study. It signals a more global shift of Europe to the right and will have implications for how politics is shaped overall at the European level.
It is enough to consider that the more the votes of the Far Right increase in the European Parliament, the more its ability to effectively become the regulator for critical decisions is strengthened. From the choices of persons for the crucial positions concerning the president of the European Parliament, the president of the Commission and the president of the Council, to the type of legislation that will come from the European Parliament, binding the member states.
Europe is now beginning to realize the danger and to worry, rightly criticized not only for tragic delay but also for hypocrisy, since we did not get to this point overnight. That is, some paved the way for the Far Right to come to the fore, with their choices and rhetoric.
Because contrary to what is heard, the rise of the Far Right is not just a reaction, e.g. on immigration, as public opinion surveys show that it is not the dominant issue that concerns European citizens.
The rise of the Far Right is directly related to two parallel dynamics and how far-right demagogues exploit them.
First Dynamic
One concerns the fact that in the last 30 years the “systemic” parties, the parties of the center-right and the center-left, have shifted far to the right: they abandoned commitments to a strong welfare state, embraced neoliberalism, widened social and economic inequalities, fought the unions, privatized and gradually took an increasingly hard line on immigration and refugees.
Second Dynamic
The other dynamic concerns the fact that European societies are becoming increasingly insecure, as they feel that we are in a period of change for which they are being asked to pay. Work is becoming more precarious, the cost of living is rising, the next pandemic may be sooner than we think, climate change is worsening, and at the same time the “Green Transition” looks like an attempt at deindustrialization and more expensive fuel.
The fact that in the same period that we are discussing, the systemic forces consciously did everything they could to slander and demonize solidarity, collectivity, common struggle, mass mobilization, resulted in the popular classes not being able as easily to turn their insecurity into an organized and effective collective assertion. On the contrary, they mostly look for an outlet for their anger, either through social explosions, or by looking for parties that seem “outside the established”. And they may sometimes have been driven to the right, the insecurity and fear in a landscape shifted to the right especially the Far Right reinforce. And this is a risk that part of the system assumes, precisely because under normal conditions it can absolutely control it, since, as it has been proven, far-right formations are part of the system.
At the same time, in conditions of intense geopolitical polarization, various trends of the Far Right wear fringes declaring “that they are on the right side of history” in order to gain legitimacy. So, for example, Meloni, whose core party has nostalgia for Mussolini, systematically played up the fact that it has a policy in favor of NATO and the “West”. You can see this now with the war in Gaza, where all the major far-right parties in Europe have openly come out in favor of Israel, even when they have people with anti-Semitic views. After all, the Islamophobia included in their ideology allows this support for Israel as a “bastion of the fight against Islamism”.
However, as much as they try to “wash” themselves in various ways and pretend that they fully embrace the principles of liberal democracy, the market economy and European integration, they do not cease to be parties that draw their original inspiration from the darkest times of of Europe, fascism, Nazism, colonialism, who insist on cruel nationalism and racism against the “Other”, the immigrant, the refugee, the “different” and who envision a society even more unequal, more authoritarian and with fewer rights .
And this means that as long as Europe does not rebuild a mass left and progressive faction, able to combine the radicalism of the imperative need for change in an era of multiple crises, with realism and governmental efficiency, so that the middle classes and the popular reference point layers, and the crisis of the “European vision” will continue and the extreme right will raise its head more and more.
