Vladimir Putin appears far more powerful at this juncture than at any time since Russia launched a full-scale military operation on Ukrainian soil in February 2022.
No one expected him to be the first leader to defeat the West, as everyone expected his downfall and Russia’s destruction – military and economic. On the ground, Russian troops are pushing hard into Ukrainian territory and have captured several villages in the past two weeks alone.
Much additional evidence points to Russia’s growing power and suggests a future in which the defeat of Ukraine and the West now becomes a realistic possibility. On the domestic front, last year Putin faced a coup by his former ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was subsequently killed in a plane crash.
His only other Western-made rival, Alexei Navalny, was exiled to northern Russia and died earlier this year.
Putin is like a Charlemagne of Asia, uniting the fragmented forces of the Global South to claim the prospect of a multi-polar world. Others attribute to him a role similar to that of Winston Churchill, who led the effort to confront the Axis powers, at the time when the latter held all of Europe.
The strategic moves
After being re-elected for another term as Russia’s president, Putin has also cemented his alliances with Iran and North Korea, which provide Moscow with the necessary military equipment and technological capability to bolster its proving formidable war machine. .
This may not be the best choice for a major power, but it keeps the Russian war machine well-oiled – in stark contrast to the problems Ukraine has faced over the past six months with Western military aid.
At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured Putin of his continued support during an official state visit on May 16-17, 2024. The seemingly strong bond between Moscow and Beijing, and between Xi and Putin personally, seems also to be more sustainable than the relations that Kiev has with the Western capitals.
Within the EU, Slovakia and Hungary have repeatedly expressed their opposition to continued Western support for Ukraine. Russia’s offensive in the Kharkov region, which began on May 10, 2024, enabled Moscow to capture several villages and drive about 10 kilometers deep into Ukraine.

More than 10,000 people have been displaced amid continuous Russian shelling and infantry attacks, adding pressure to the already extensive humanitarian aid operations in the region and especially in the city of Kharkov, which is already home to 200,000 displaced people.
The Russian successes around Kharkov come on the heels of territorial gains elsewhere along the 1,000km front line over the past several months. While not a game-changer in the Kremlin’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Moscow appears to have significant momentum behind its ground operations as Kiev struggles to contain Russian troops.
Russian incursions this year have all but wiped out Ukrainian gains from last year’s counteroffensive. While Russia has captured only one major city – Avdiivka – since seizing Bakhmut a year ago, it has seized about 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in recent months.
As the Kremlin keeps up the pressure, Ukraine continues to suffer from arms and ammunition shortages, even as more US supplies begin to reach the front lines.
Future Western support for Ukraine is far less certain than it seemed a year ago. Consequently, future aid to Ukraine is high on the agenda for Kiev’s allies, especially in the run-up to the upcoming US presidential and congressional elections, where Trump and his supporters have proposed ending aid to Ukraine.
President Joe Biden remains firmly anchored in Kiev for now, but it is not certain that he will win a second term in November this year.
Western swing
The European Union managed to reach an agreement on how to use profits from “frozen” Russian assets to support Ukraine. Instead, there is sharp disagreement among G7 countries over how to finance continued support for Ukraine, especially over the use of “frozen” Russian assets in the West.
The role of the BRICS nations within the grouping has changed as they claim a more autonomous role and reject American geopolitical and economic hegemony. What appears to be Russia’s strength is, in part at least, the weakness of Ukraine and the West.

While Russia has relentlessly pounded targets across Ukraine for more than two years now, Kiev is constrained by the types of weapons and ammunition provided by the West and the rules of engagement associated with those deliveries, such as where they can be used . This could change with more arms deliveries now arriving in Ukraine – but there is the question of using NATO weaponry inside Russia – as this possibility would directly embroil the Alliance in a war with Russia.
The Kremlin has had no qualms about mobilizing large numbers of young Russians for its war effort as they have realized that this is an existential battle. That is, to sacrifice their lives to stop Ukraine’s counterattack last year and achieve its own territorial gains this year.
In contrast, Ukraine only changed conscription legislation in April, lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. Russian tactics translate into tangible gains on the battlefield in the form of “fresh”, well-trained and equipped troops.
The power within
Putin makes his own decisions, almost completely unfettered by his political regime. Bolstered by the resources Russia can muster at home and draw from its allies, it has been able to recover from strategic and tactical mistakes.
What passes for strategy in the West is often nothing more than the best agreement that can be reached between 32 NATO members and 27 EU members all pushing in different directions.
The resulting permanent crisis management has, so far, prevented the defeat of Ukraine. But it has not opened and will not open a path to victory. Putin’s power is relative, not absolute – and so his strategic victories must be interpreted for their true meaning.
More confusion from the West will make Putin look stronger than he is and could further heighten the narrative of a no-win war for Ukraine and the West.
The expected withdrawal of the West from the Kiev regime either due to fatigue and weakness or due to a change in political hierarchies will mean a complete victory for Putin in his gamble with the military operation in Ukraine.