These are not science fiction scenarios but an approaching reality and shipping will have to move in time to meet the new forecasts.
Large ports of the planet will be put into disuse, while new ones will acquire new dynamics, due to climate change. The sailors who will man the ships will have to have increased skills and will also come mainly from Africa. In addition, a large part of the shipping workforce will be women.
The new “Global Maritime Trends 2050” report by Lloyd’s Register and the Lloyd’s Register Foundation analyzes possible future scenarios for shipping to 2050, taking into account the speed of adoption of new technologies and the degree of global cooperation, aiming to facilitate the industry in its predictions of future risks, opportunities and required investments. The major findings were recently presented at an event in London, in celebration of London Maritime Week.
The two organizations are calling on shipowners and all actors in the supply chain to step up their efforts to deal with the significant changes and upcoming potential future scenarios – as they are developed in the new report.
The main component of the report is the effects of the climate crisis. As is typically mentioned, one of the scenarios predicts that in 2050, due to the retreat of the ice, 20,000 ships will pass through the Arctic sea lanes a year, approximately as many as through the Suez Canal in 2022.
Conditions on board ships will also be more difficult now than they have ever been. Unpredictable storms and natural disasters make the sea more dangerous than ever. The opening of the arctic passage will result in the creation of new ports around it, while some ports – hubs today of world trade, such as Shanghai in China (the largest in the world today), Houston in the USA and Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico, will no longer be in operation.
World trade
Changes will also occur in world trade and in the internal functioning of shipping. It is indicated that in 2050 Asian countries, namely China, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, will make up half of the world’s ten largest economies, with the result that maritime trade in the region will continue to expand.
Already, as of 2021, Asian economies account for 43% of maritime exports and 64% of imports, and four of the top five seafarer supplying countries are in Asia, with the Philippines taking the top spot.
Also the introduction of smart and environmentally friendly ships in the industry will increase the required number of technical employees from 35,549 in 2018 to 49,000 in 2028.
African states will be dominant providers of naval manpower as other regions are threatened by aging populations. Female employment in shipping will reach 25% of the global maritime workforce by 2050 due to technological advances, when in 2021 women represented less than 2% of the global shipping workforce, according to the latest BIMCO report and of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS).
Shipping seems to be lagging behind the coming developments. From managing the energy transition to preparing the next generation of seafarers, shipping has been left in limbo and delaying action for too long. Now, with this report, a framework has been created for shipping to form a better picture of what the future holds. It is time to take action.
