According to the first New York Times/Siena College poll ahead of the primaries, former President Donald Trump is leading all his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, even leaving behind his main competitor by a margin of 37 points!
Overall, the former president led Ron DeSantis 54% to 17%, while no other candidate topped 3% in the poll. It is noted that the Republicans will nominate their presidential candidate after the primary election process that will take place in less than six months.
These are organized and financed by each State and are held, like national elections, in polling centers with a ballot and ballot box. The process can be “open” (each voter votes for the candidate of any party) or “closed” (only party members participate).
Without a rival
But the results of the poll – conducted on a sample of 932 voters between July 23 and 27 – are already impressively in favor of Donald Trump, despite the major legal problems he faces. Even if all of his opponents came together, Trump would defeat even a united intra-party opposition, defying those who bet on a Republican “civil war.”
No other serious challenger to Trump – other than Ron DeSantis – appears to be on the horizon.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott each scored 3% support. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy each got 2 percent.
Ron DeSantis is not convinced
Trump had decisive advantages in nearly every demographic and district and across every ideological wing of the party, as Republican voters appear less comfortable with the former president’s legal risks.
He led by wide margins among men and women, younger and older voters, moderates and conservatives, graduates and non-graduates, in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
The New York Times poll shows that some of the central arguments of Ron DeSantis campaign — that he is more electable than Trump and would govern more effectively — have so far failed to convince.
Even Ron DeSantis once-privileged fields, such as the fight against woke ideology (“vigilance against racial prejudice and discrimination”), nevertheless favored Trump.
In Republican strongholds, Ron DeSantis did not fare well at all. He won only 9% of the support of 65-year-old voters and 13% of non-graduates. Republicans who described themselves as “very conservative” favored Trump by a margin of 50 points, 65% to 15%.
Nice Ron DeSantis, but Trump is our man
Of course, DeSantis, despite being attacked by the media for his controversial ability to connect with voters — Trump has spent $20 million on attack ads — appears to be holding back.
In interviews with pollsters, a recurring theme emerged: They like Ron DeSantis, but they love Trump.
“Trump is getting results”… despite his legal troubles
Only 1 in 4 Republicans appear firmly in the anti-Trump camp. Only 19% of the electorate said Trump’s behavior after his 2020 defeat threatened American democracy.
And only 17% see the former president as having committed serious federal crimes, despite his federal indictment for mishandling classified documents.
But Trump’s appeal in the GOP is so strong that a Times/Siena poll found that in a matchup with Ron DeSantis, Trump still received 22 percent among voters who believed he had committed serious federal crimes—a bigger percent of the 17% won by Ron DeSantis of the entire Republican electorate.
Ron DeSantis central campaign slogan is against the woke movement, but that only finds support in 24% of Republican voters as “law and order on our streets and on our borders” is more catchy. Equally troubling for Ron DeSantis is that those voters who focused on “woke” still preferred Trump, 61% to 36%.
The ability to defeat President Joe Biden and build a conservative agenda is at the core of DeSantis appeal to Republicans. He has warned that Trump has plunged the party into a “culture of defeat” in the Trump years.
As governor, he has pushed a sweeping set of conservative priorities that have sharply reoriented the state, and he has promised to bring the same policymaking zeal to the White House. However, these arguments do not seem to work.
A strong majority of Republicans surveyed, 58 percent, said it was Trump, not DeSantis, who is best described as “can beat Joe Biden.” But again, Trump with 67% to Ron DeSantis measly 22% is seen as the one who “gets results.”
Ron DeSantis falls short on all issues
On a number of issues, the poll shows it will be difficult for Ron DeSantis to outrun Trump on policy arguments alone. Trump is ahead of Ron DeSantis everywhere and in all groups. It precedes both those who accept trans as a gender and those who are against it.
It prevails among those who want to fight the companies that promote the woke ideology. It is finding more supporters both among those who want more military and economic aid sent to Ukraine, and among those who do not.
It is supported by those who want to preserve Social Security benefits and by those who call for measures to reduce the budget deficit.
Trump leads Ron DeSantis among Republicans who believe abortion should always be legal and among those who believe it should always be illegal. Ron DeSantis signed a strict six-week abortion ban that Trump has criticized as “too harsh.”
However, Trump enjoyed the support of 70% of Republicans who said they strongly supported such a measure.
