Since May until today, North Korea has been involved in testing three short-range ballistic missiles. On 3 October it triggered a mid-range ballistic missile between the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Sea from an underwater vessel.
On October 31 North Korea made a successful-always according to North Korea news agency-test of a launch system “multiple missiles” with 370 km missiles range. The repetition of all these ballistic missile tests “targets” in specific directions with the aim of pressure on neighbouring states.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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Photo by Aridd
The goals of North Korean President Kim Jong-un
With the launch of ballistic missile testing, North Korea succeeds in this way to fuel the concern for new threats targeting the South Korean and Japanese side, with the aim of both Japan and South Korea to start pushing the US in their way to relaunch the negotiations on the demilitarisation of the Korean Peninsula, which have been frozen for some time.
In addition, the leader of North Korea wants to indirectly provoke the attention of the U.S. in order to receive “donations” from them by the end of the year in exchange for stopping ballistic missile testing by mobilizing again the negotiations (the restart of the negotiations is the necessary item in order to receive “donations”).
At the same time, it saves time using all these frozen negotiations time to improve the technology and increase the number of its existing nuclear arsenal and whether negotiations are relaunched will have another strong negotiating paper in its hands for exchange.
The latest images that the planet has from North Korean President Kim-Jong-Un are the large-openings and promises of modernity of his country, which tried to pass into the world with the dramatic-type handshakes with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump in the demilitarised zone of the Korean Peninsula.
In October, Kim Jong Un announced the end of North Korea’s partnership with South Korea to highlight and exploit a tourist attraction on the Kumgang Mountain that was beginning to be implemented as a symbol of good gesture with the participation of South Korean construction companies and constituted a first-class cooperation between the two sides. In fact, he called for the already constructed buildings to be demolished to date.
The future of the negotiations on the demilitarisation of the Korean Peninsula
On the other hand, the countries-supporters of the North Korean regime, China and Russia, are in conflict with the United States and certainly these two countries have helped its President and North Korea in general to overcome the three years of hard sanctions imposed by the UN resolutions.
It is obvious that the nine-year-executive period of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and after the pass of the hard period of sanctions has established himself in the power of his country and is not in danger of lost power, while again undertaking to play the role of evil and unpredictable in the area through the repetition of ballistic missile tests succeeds in order to pull on a constant basis the attention of his “neighbours” and their “friends”.
If Kim Jung Un’s power to date has been consolidated by the previous negotiations with the US and South Korea, which have necessarily resulted from the escalating increase in each other’s verbal threats and military testing, let alone now having experience of meetings why not repeat the same threat plan through ballistic missile tests to achieve even greater benefits and gifts.
Photo by Dan Scavino
The results to date of the strategy followed
The fact that Kim Jong Un seized the opportunity during all this time the negotiations have been frozen, to strengthen, improve and increase his nuclear arsenal in both number and technology, this alone is considered as a fiasco for US President Trump and his policy in this corner of the world and given that the negotiations on the demilitarisation of the Korean Peninsula began with the aim of reducing the nuclear arsenal of North Korea.
Certainly at this time US President Trump has the “hangover” of his referral from the Democrats and may not be able to deal with North Korea, unless the negotiations have been put on ice on purpose so that next year the President Trump to make a strong come back to the issue in order to subsequently have, through negotiations and a new agreement, to show “achievements” in the American electorate before the US elections in November 2020.
But in one such case, the negotiating table will be President Trump, who will be pressed, not Kim Jong-Un, because President Trump will want to have in his policy a wide selection of results to be used pre-election. Then President Trump will be the one to give the most to Kim Jong-Un taking the US and South Korea the least.
Moreover, more China and less Russia will be able to “use” Kim Jong-Un to achieve even more benefits on their own “open fronts” with the US by asking Kim Jong-Un to follow a hard negotiating approach and since the President Trump will also, in these cases, seek to achieve practical results with these countries.
If on the other hand for various reasons the US continues to keep on ice any negotiations with North Korea and the next year that will be time for Presidential elections for them, then the frequency of tension and anxiety that will cause the North Korea’s regime will be stepped up not only to South Korea and Japan but to the United States.
These tensions will come not only through the ever-increasing number of ballistic missile tests, but also with cyber-government type attacks before the US elections.
In this case the strategy should be one. If North Korea increases the volume of tension, then South Korea, Japan and US will need to increase from their side the intensity, the heat and readiness even further without to use any verbal threats. The countries which possesses real power does not need the use of threats.
If North Korea stops tension and prudence occurs, then the United States and its allies will have to gradually make inroads towards the North Korean regime.
Photo by The White House from Washington DC
In other words, If North Korea offers an exchange, the US and South Korea will offer more given that the North Korea regime will implement in practise the agreed economic openings and political reforms so that North Korea to be able to get “aids”, and given that North Korea will have stopped first any tensions understanding that with threats and lion roars not only will has something to lose but that it may have completely bad results contrary to its initial expected results.
When North Korea increases the volume of tension then the US and South Korea will increase it more and vice -versa.
In this game theory North Korea will have to understand that its tensions and lion roars lead nowhere for it except to the abyss of isolationism. For this reason both US, South Korea and North Korea we have to agree on a “any kind of street reformations” that both sides (North and South Korea) will reach and gradually implement both with mutual benefit for both sides so that both peoples can unite and live harmoniously in the future without tensions.
It should not be missed that even if North Korea is fully opened up to the free movement of goods and people, and given that the regime of Kim Jong Un remains in power, North Korea presents high probabilities to follow the authoritarian capitalist model of governance in China and for whatever this will mean for the American and European capital/companies that will be actively established there.
But as time goes by and we are heading for the American elections, the pressure for results in the event of a resumption of negotiations will be transferred to the American President’s side, with whatever this will mean for the pluses and minuses that can be achieved from a new deal.
