When two people argue, the third wins, says a Polish proverb. This was amply demonstrated in the recent battle between Vladimir Putin and Yevgeny Prigozhin that ended with Alexander Lukashenko winning. This particularly upset the opposition in Belarus who believed that the problem posed to the Russian president by the Wagner leader would leave the regime in Minsk exposed, offering its members an opportunity to initiate its overthrow. But Lukashenko decided to play it by mediating between Putin and Prigozhin, presenting himself as the loyal ally that the Kremlin should not lose from his side.
The romance Putin – Lukashenko
“I told Putin: ‘yes, we could get him out of the way, it wouldn’t be a problem, and if we didn’t succeed with the first, we would succeed with the second,’ Lukashenko has since boasted to acquaintances and strangers that he told Russian president and he weighed his opinion and followed his advice. “But let’s not do it, because then there won’t be any negotiation and these guys are ready for anything,” concluded the Belarusian president.
Of course, his motive had nothing to do with Russian interest, but was driven by his personal gain, since he knows full well that an instability in Russia will reach Belarus in record time, strengthening the democratic forces in its territories who want his overthrow Here and Now.
From the moment Putin saved Lukashenko, when in 2020 the protests in his country seriously threatened his power by giving him 1.5 billion. dollars in loan, while he also promised him military forces in case he needed them, the latter knows well that he has no other ally but the former.
Profit second thoughts
Lukashenko was more the sender of the message than the mediator in the rivalry between the two men. That is, Putin had the knife and the watermelon from the beginning, even if it seemed for a moment that Prigozhin stole it from his hands. In any case, at the moment Lukashenko’s popularity in Russia is at an all-time high, since according to a poll by the Levada Center, conducted on July 1, a week after the infamous mutiny, he was the second most loved political figure after the Russian president himself .
It should be noted that when Lukashenko signed in 1999 for the union superstate of the Russian Federation with Belarus, he hoped to become its president. But Boris Yeltsin presented Putin as his successor and the rest is history.
President of the Union State?
Last month, Lukashenko met with several Russian governors. This means that he gathers as much support as he can within Russian society, especially the elite, and sends the message in every direction that I am your man. Lukashenko seems to be playing his own game and anyone who doesn’t understand that is naive and clearly doesn’t want Putin to suddenly put the two together and put him into…unemployment overnight.
Interdependence relationship
After all, he remembers well what happened in Georgia in 2010 and in Crimea in 2014, which is why he makes sure that in every election he declares his loyalty to Moscow, so that he can keep the power of Belarus in his hands. For now, he can enjoy the glory given to him by the Russian president’s entanglements and dream of leadership greatness that he will never have, since “without Putin, Lukashenko will not last in power for even one hour”, the exile states emphatically leader of the Belarusian opposition.
