The failure of the promised Ukrainian counter-offensive is now clear to all. Kiev is making only subdued attempts to imitate offensive activity in various areas and is suffering heavy losses. Nevertheless, some experts predict that a dangerous situation is now developing for Russians in the operation zone.
According to retired Russian military intelligence specialist Colonel R. Klupov, unprecedented situations are coming to the war front. “Having realized the military failure, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will start building their own fortification lines like ours, and will only fall on the defensive.
The Ukrainians will sit in their trenches and start pounding Russian cities with long-range missiles given to them by the West.
Britain was the first to supply Kiev with Storm Shadow missiles in May this year, capable of hitting targets up to 250km away. On July 11, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the transfer of SCALP missiles with the same range to Ukraine.
The United States is considering sending ATACMS operational-tactical missiles with a range of 300 km to Kiev. So far, only Berlin has weakly resisted, refusing to transfer Taurus long-range missiles with a range of 500 km to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
But there can be no doubt: if an order is issued from Washington, Berlin will answer “Yes!”. In addition, the carriers for these missiles may be F-16 fighters, which have already been promised to Kiev.
Is it possible to hope that the events in the zone of operations will not develop according to the scenario desired by the West, taking the character of a protracted conflict and battles of positions, with the use of long-range weapons?
Our goal is to protect the population of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics and now the annexed territories. Ukraine itself has already ceased to be a state capable of independently producing any serious weapons. And this is one of the elements of its demilitarization.
The Summit in Vilnius, on the one hand, showed us that there is no agreement in the NATO countries, but on the other hand, the fact that the production of only 4,000 shells per month by all the countries of the alliance is not a suitable indicator that leads to militarization of Ukraine.
They are no longer able to meet Ukraine’s needs for the necessary weapons, and thus the Western countries are forced to expand the range and scope of their ammunition supplies to Kiev.
We continue to defend. And in defense, as we know, you can’t win. Any defense is, first of all, the creation of favorable conditions for the attack.
According to all circumstantial indications, a situation is now being created where Russian troops in various sectors must be contained so that they do not go on the offensive on their own, as the coming major Russian offensive, as I understand it, is not yet fully ready.
Reserves at the tactical level, we may not have enough now, since they were used to stop the Ukrainian offensive.
Now we must prepare our great force. We need to complete all tank and infantry crew training of newly formed formation units. Then all of them will go to the starting areas.
Ukraine is now committing its last operational-strategic reserves to the battle.
It has already laid waste to the 10th Army Corps, while of the 9th Army Corps, at least three of its six brigades have been committed to battle. Of the fighter aircraft, belonging to 8 brigades, Kiev definitely dropped two into battle.
The Ukrainian side understands that the more it now spends its operational-strategic reserves on the offensive, the more difficult it will be for it to contain the upcoming major Russian offensive.
Too often, the genius of a commander lies in stopping the attack in time and going on the defensive to repel the enemy’s counterattacks.
We have strong Russian counter-attacks in some directions such as Kupyansk-Solentarsk and Avdiyka regions, in which our troops are already inflicting heavy casualties on the Ukrainians.
Some experts say we have enough forces to defend, but not to attack.”
What is certain is that once a Ukrainian offensive is completely weakened, or anyway fails, the Russians will launch a major ground-based offensive after an artillery barrage, massive bombardment and missile launches from air and sea, with the aim of cutting the country in two, bringing the NATO before fait accompli.
