The world is no longer unipolar, as American neoconservatives once claimed, but neither is it multipolar, as former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov believed. Today the world is tripolar. This resulted from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, from the events that followed, from China’s brave involvement in the developments as well as from the critical role it now plays.
By emerging as a roughly equal nuclear power alongside the US and the Russian Federation, Beijing has entered a new global pattern of dangerous balances. Amid the disturbing current developments at the geostrategic level, two things mainly stand out. On the one hand, Russia’s creeping threats of nuclear involvement on the Ukrainian front, and on the other, China’s aggressive military exercises around Taiwan. The whole scene is disturbing and points to a world that has moved beyond its traditional safety nets.
In Robert S. Litwak’s latest book Tripolar Instability, published by the Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington (2023), it is strongly argued that the combination of this new nuclear tripolarism and the resulting global, potentially dangerous entanglements bring to the fore some long-forgotten risks of the Cold War era. The so-called “balance of terror” is becoming less and less stable. The entire world is moving into a phase of fierce competition at the geostrategic level, catalyzing arms control systems that had been built and operated unchallenged for decades.
At the same time, new technologies are emerging that are almost uncontrollable and cause instability. At the same time, on the battlefields as well as in the related planning of the major powers, the uses of conventional and non-conventional weapon systems are confused to an extent that worries the experts and rings bells in the political staffs. Finally, the new fields of competition between the powerful that include cyberspace and space are driving the interest of strategists into new frontiers and uncharted spaces.
With the war in Ukraine still ongoing, the interest becomes even more intense. And of course, the general tension that prevails around Taiwan also contributes to this. Litwak’s book draws on these developments as well, considering the possibility of further involvement, whether accidental or targeted. Causing the reader’s interest in particular, since it touches on serious and real risks.
It is obvious that the risks that run with this new geopolitical reality and also with the tensions caused by this new form of Cold War are not going to be easily resolved. But neither should they immediately develop into heated confrontations. However, the risks are always here and there are elements that can be used to prevent the worst. It is up to those who direct this new tripartite reality to achieve this.
