Six years ago, the eminent professor of Harvard University, Graham Allison, in his prophetic book entitled “Destined To War” had reminded us of the famous “Thucydides’ trap” with reference to the erasing new international correlation of powers and the, as therefore, a path towards a potential conflict between the US and a rising China.
The “trap” of the ancient Greek historian is nothing more than his observation that when a new emerging great power begins to threaten the supremacy of another which already dominates the international scene, the conflict between them becomes, almost by default, very likely if not inevitable.
Thucydides was of course referring to the Peloponnesian War, the historic, devastating for Ancient Greece thirty-year war between the then rising Athens and the strongest military power of the time, Sparta. The author had pitted America, the world’s dominant superpower, against China.
Which, having achieved spectacular performance and progress in a number of critical sectors in recent decades, has made it clear that it intends to play a leading role in the international political, economic and military arena, thus directly challenging American primacy.
Today, six years later, that insightful position of the leading American academic is no longer a theoretical hypothesis but takes the form of a gradually verified realistic prediction. America and China through statements at the highest leadership level as well as major political actions have established each other as their main competitor in the international arena.
Adding to this rivalry, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the subsequent global showdown between the West and Russia, and the latter’s multifaceted cooperation with China, have further brought about additional major realignments in international relations and patterns of cooperation among its most important countries. of the universe.
It is clear today even to non-specialist observers that, based on the US-China confrontation, the global political, economic and military conditions, at least in the two critical geopolitical theaters of Europe and the Pacific, have begun to slide towards a reality that is increasingly reminiscent of more the “Thucydides trap”.
In this light, one does not need to be wise to realize that while America is rallying its allies in Europe and Asia, China, in general, and especially in the context of the Ukrainian conflict, considers it to be in its vital strategic interest to support with by all means Russia and to strengthen cooperation schemes with other important countries that will offset American global presence and influence.
An immediate but also long-term consequence is that humanity, instead of coordinating its forces to deal with crises that threaten the entire planet, such as climate change and arms control, is being tested by deep major crises.
These ominous international developments alter the global balance, undermine the general multifaceted competition between the superpowers, push in the direction of the creation of two opposing camps and, worst of all, multiply the chances of a generalized confrontation. It is therefore not an exaggeration to conclude that we are getting closer and closer to the “Thucydides trap”.
