The elections in Turkey highlighted a critical feature that undermines the functioning of Democracy. The polls, which are usually sponsored by media friendly to the government or with public money, fell out.
But not in the direction we described, that the government parties appeared stronger in order to exert psychological pressure on the people, but in the exact opposite direction.
Opinion polls in Turkey showed Erdogan losing the election and he eventually triumphed with a comfortable majority in Parliament along with his allies and just under 50% in the first round of the election.
The explanation must be sought in the fact that citizens in Turkey, for different reasons, express themselves more freely in polls than in the polls. The Erdoğan regime is consolidated and to achieve this it has proceeded with hundreds of thousands of dismissals, arrests, imprisonments. He leaves nothing to chance, evidenced by record-breaking ballot cancellations in Kurdish areas, and even in the earthquake-hit areas, Erdogan has not suffered damage, despite the problematic constructions of the buildings and the long delay in providing aid to the earthquake victims. The Erdogan deep state is everywhere, cruel and ruthless. It is therefore logical for Turkish citizens to express themselves more comfortably in polls, while trying to keep their anonymity and have second thoughts at the ballot box.
The economy
The first question we have to answer is what will be the course of the Turkish economy due to the strange economics implemented by Erdogan. For example, it refuses to deal with high inflation by the traditional method of raising real interest rates and cutting government spending. The analysis of the Turkish economy with the standards applicable in the E.U. and in the West it turned out to be a serious analytical error. Turkey has other economic possibilities based on its demographic boom, close relations and funding from Qatar, the fact that it does not follow the sanctions against Russia and has particularly close and profitable relations with Russia and the EU, in that it has made major modernization investments from the war industry to the production of electric cars, which are expected to make an impressive appearance on the European market in the coming months.
Therefore, the Turkish economy will continue to grow strongly, run a huge current account deficit, and grow.
The politics
Erdogan’s ascendancy rests on a mixture of relatively mild Islamism and fairly hardline nationalism.
After the failed military coup of 2016, Erdogan made an alliance with far-right nationalists to ensure his stay in power.
He changed his political orientation, because we must not forget that twenty years ago he came to power as a relatively liberal, open to joining the EU, even tolerance or cooperation with the Kurds.
All this belongs to the distant past. The alliance with far-right nationalists stabilized and strengthened the regime. The polls fell far short of the nationalists. The prediction was that they would lose votes causing Erdogan and his allies to lose their parliamentary majority. This did not happen, on the contrary, the role of the nationalists was strengthened because of the third presidential candidate, who subscribes to their positions and got 5% in the first round of the presidential elections.
Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Kemalist center-left opposition party and joint presidential candidate of the motley opposition forces, has sought to bridge the gap with the first Erdogan by adopting key positions of the nationalist candidate. He started talking about eliminating terrorism, effectively abandoning the consultation with the Kurds, and emphasized that he would remove from Turkey the 4 million refugees from Syria.
Therefore, we have a strengthening of the far-right nationalist characteristics not only of Erdogan’s regime, but of Turkey’s political system in general.
The Relations with the EU
With Erdogan in power, Greece-Turkey relations are predicted to be quite difficult, but they will be more predictable than with Kilicdaroglu in power.
The presidential candidate of the opposition parties has two political characteristics that should be of concern. First, he expresses the Kemalist tradition and appears pro-European, and this could strengthen Turkey’s position in the EU.
In the corridors of Brussels, Erdogan’s victory was greeted with relief, on the grounds that Turkey’s application for EU membership would be kept on the back burner.
With Kilicdaroglu, Brussels would have to take responsibility, while the characteristics of the Erdogan regime – most of them outside the European context – allow them to prioritize enlargement towards the Western Balkans and then Ukraine, Moldova. These enlargements are extremely difficult to carry out but are less complex than the accession of a Muslim country of 85 million inhabitants to the EU.
Finally, the dominance of Erdogan will probably lead to the gradual normalization of relations with the US in the context of geopolitical realism to cynicism.
