US officials are warning China in particularly strong language to stop supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine and, above all, not to arm Russia to counter Ukraine’s upgrading of equipment from the West.
China is using the war in Ukraine to strengthen its leading role in the context of the so-called Global South. He assigns significant responsibility to the West for the outbreak and escalation of the war and presents cooperation with China as a creative way out of the countries of the South from the economic dominance of the West.
In Washington’s view, if Beijing goes ahead with arming Russia, it will mean a Chinese investment in prolonging the war in Ukraine with the aim of weakening the US and NATO.
China’s arming of Russia will also be seen as a signal of preparations for aggressive action against Taiwan, with a significant part of the West’s military industry potential committed to confronting Russia in Ukraine.
According to US intelligence, China aims to prepare its troops by 2027 so that, if decided, they will be able to occupy the island.
The preparation of China’s armed forces before attacking Taiwan is most likely to include the following stages:
1. Their aim is to organize a quick occupation of Taiwan so that there is no time for it to be supported by Western powers, as in the case of Ukraine.
2. Hybrid warfare plays a huge role in the preparation of hostilities with an emphasis on Chinese influence in shaping public opinion in Taiwan, disinformation and cyber attacks. In addition, an effort is being made to gradually change the status quo to the detriment of Taiwan in terms of its international relations, navigation in the Taiwan Straits, the determination of the country’s airspace.
3. The Chinese leadership realizes that it must also prepare for economic sanctions should it decide to take action against Taiwan. Consequently, there must be a series of measures that will limit the damage to the outward-looking Chinese economy and allow it to effectively support the war effort.
The Globalization of Risk
As things are developing we are facing a new kind of globalization, the globalization of risk. The crisis in Ukraine is intensifying the rivalry between the US and China and bringing the issue of Taiwan back to the fore with the risk of the situation getting out of control.
The escalation of tension between the US and China may be planned by both sides as the two superpowers emerge victorious from Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
The E.U. it is losing economic and energy ground to the US and is increasingly dependent on the US from a strategic and military point of view.
Due to Putin’s choices, Russia has lost its best market, the EU, and is forced to rely more and more on China to bear the economic and international costs of the war. China’s economy is ten times that of Russia’s, and increasing Russia’s dependence on China harms, in the medium to long term, Russia’s strategic interests.
Even if the escalation between the US and China is planned, nothing excludes it from having a particularly negative development for the two superpowers and the world as a whole. In today’s world the geopolitical distance separating Ukraine from Taiwan can prove dangerously small.
