The Chinese leadership is much more measured and careful in its statements than the Russian one. That is why recent statements by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Qin Gang against the US should be taken seriously.
According to the president of China: “Western countries, under the leadership of the US, are implementing a policy of containment, encirclement and pressure against us.” Xi’s statement to his country’s state media stood out for its stern tone and reference to the US by name, which China’s leader usually avoids.
Qin Gang phrased his warning to the US as follows: “If the US does not brake and continue speeding down the wrong path, no safety system will prevent the wagon from derailing and crashing, and it is certain to there will be controversy and confrontation”.
The reasons behind the hardening of the stance of the Chinese leadership
1. The fact that Xi has secured a 3rd five-year term at the helm of the party and the country and is now seen as Mao Zedong’s equal is pushing China to adopt an extremely ambitious strategy. Based on the plan, by 2049 there will have been a renewal, a renaissance of China as a result of which it has expanded its dominance in Taiwan and has turned from No.2 to No.1 superpower, leaving the USA behind.
2. Xi’s transformation into a sort of leader for life, modeled on Putin, is pushing him into a dynamic as an offensive strategy in order to justify his stay in power. The good thing in the case of China is that there are some mechanisms of control of the leader on the part of the Communist Party, while in the case of Russia all that exists is the closed circle of Putin’s associates.
3. On the one hand he has a “friendship without limits” with Putin, who needs China’s military assistance, on the other hand he is under pressure from the US not to provide weapons systems to Russia.
Russian troops have already occupied 20% of Ukraine, but it is clear that in order to continue their advance and to defend the positions they control, they will have to renew their equipment. Russia’s military industry, although developed, cannot meet all needs, and the equipment of Ukraine from the West may change the balance of power during the next six months. The intelligence services of the NATO countries estimate that Russia is currently covering the gaps in the equipment of its army with the help of Iran and North Korea. This aid cannot make a difference in the long run, which is why the need for Chinese military aid to Russia arises.
Taiwan and the strategic goal of renewal, rebirth of China
The strategic goal of China’s renewal and rebirth also goes through the expansion of its sovereignty in Taiwan. Taiwan is a special case because it has never experienced communism. Until 1945 it was part of Japan, which had occupied it towards the end of the 19th century, and after the defeat of the nationalists by the communists in the Chinese civil war, it became a refuge for the defeated nationalists. Over time, Taiwan has developed into a Republic with a highly successful and outward-looking economy and a population of 25 million that wants good relations with China and close cooperation, but not to turn into a second Hong Kong.
The Chinese leadership’s proposal to the people of Taiwan is summed up in the phrase one country, two systems. It will be turned into a special administrative region in which Chinese legislation will prevail and the supporters of “reunification” who will also undertake the task of Chineseizing the island will have the first say.
Taiwanese overwhelmingly reject this prospect, especially after a tougher regime was imposed on Hong Kong at the initiative of Beijing.
The Chinese leadership is also troubled by the creation or strengthening of US alliances in the greater China region aimed at limiting Chinese influence and defending Taiwan’s independence. Countries such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea are leading in this effort.
Technological competition
The situation is also complicated by the US-China competition for technological supremacy that can lead to economic and military dominance.
The two superpowers are playing a chess game of strategy around technology. They make moves to embarrass the opponent, but without harming their own advantages.
For example, we mention the US sanctions that have been imposed on the microchip sector in China. The bans are on materials, machinery and technology that may allow China to produce more sophisticated microchips. But they do not concern microchip exports to China which are largely controlled by Taiwan, which is the world champion in the development and production of microchips. It is estimated that Taiwan controls 92% of the world’s production of the most advanced microchips. It has record exports to China with which it has an annual trade surplus of $60-80 billion, with its exports largely based on microchips.
Taiwan gained a lot from the globalization of the economy, but the triumph of globalization is China, which since 2001, when it became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), has been going from one economic and commercial success to another.
