In its essence, strategy is the epitome of achieving the objective that you have set from the beginning as an individual, as a team, as an army, as a society, as a country. For this reason we will present specific rules that delineate the framework of strategy for achieving the goal with examples from war, diplomacy, domestic politics, business, sports and everyday life.
- Rule 1 – Strategy – the pairing of means and ends in the face of actual or potential conflict – is an integral part of human life. We all strategize, often on a daily basis. Accordingly, in international politics each nation and each state (where these two concepts are not identical) has its own strategic tradition.
- Rule 2 – Strategy can make the difference between winning and losing.
With the right strategy, David can defeat Goliath. Accordingly, Goliath, despite starting from an advantageous position, did not bother to plan a strategy that would turn his advantage into victory.
- Rule 3 – There are no specific manuals in strategy.
In strategy there are no immutable winning recipes. In the short term a weapon system or mode of action may prove very effective, but adversaries adapt to developments.
- Rule 4 – The time factor affects all levels of strategy. Another issue is the time horizon of strategic planning.
- Rule 5 – Strategy has limits: some strategic problems are unsolvable.
Although, as we saw above, with the right strategy David can defeat Goliath, this becomes increasingly difficult as the power differential between them increases in Goliath’s favor. Once the difference in power becomes enormous and Goliath relentlessly pursues the extermination of David, the latter’s strategic problem is now unsolved.
- Rule 6 – Do not count on the fact that the enemy will not come, but on the fact that if he does come you are ready to face him.
This old truth is reflected, among others, in the famous Roman saying “si vis pacem, para bellum” (if you want peace, prepare for war).
- Rule 7 – Lean on your own strength as much as you can.
In international politics, only the Great Powers can afford to rely solely on their own forces. However, each state must ensure its own security. And since no outsider will make our own problem, we have no choice but to rely on our own strength as much as possible.
- Rule 8 – War tests your entire organization.
War, and more generally the strategic confrontation between states, requires a total effort on the part of the state apparatus, but also of the entire society. Here we are not only referring to the cases of universal mobilization that arise during total wars, but also to how the political and social organization of a country aids its strategy. Obviously, a people cannot be at war indefinitely. If nothing else, his political and social system should not undermine his strategy.
- Rule 9 – Leadership is a power multiplier – but also a divider.
Leadership is defined as the ability to effectively influence the achievement of specific goals. The importance of political and military leadership has always been obvious – not to say that everything is explained solely by the whims of individual leaders.
- Rule 10 – In the short term play your strengths, in the long term eliminate your weaknesses.
Success comes more from exploiting our strengths than from eliminating our weaknesses. On the other hand, perpetuating our weaknesses will sooner or later be exploited by our adversaries, so in the long run there must be some concern.
- Rule 11 – People don’t walk on air: geography sets the strategic stage.
International politics is inherently geopolitical, that is, it is conducted in a geographical context.
- Rule 12 – The ideological and social environment is at least just as important as the natural environment.
Human things are not only governed by material factors, whether it is the distribution of material power resources, or the physical environment. The ideological and social environment also plays a decisive role in strategy formulation and execution.
- Rule 13 – The ‘how’ defines the ‘what’: technology influences strategy.
An important (though not the only) way technology affects international politics and war is whether it favors defense or offense at any given moment. Technologies that lead to a lethal first strike (eg, the six-shot revolver in the Wild West) favor offense; technologies that favor holding ground (eg, fortifications) favor defense.
- Rule 14 – Information is the eyes and ears of strategic players.
Incomplete information leads to mistakes and lost opportunities, while timely and accurate information multiplies your power. On the other hand, information cannot substitute for combat power, nor does it automatically imply control of the situation.
- Rule 15 – Help yourself: shape the environment.
Shaping the environment is the use of power (not necessarily exclusively military) in order to create favorable conditions for you. In other words, you don’t passively follow the developments, but you shape them accordingly.
- Rule 16 – What do you want to achieve?
In a strategic confrontation, the first thing we must do is determine what exactly we want to achieve. We must always have a clear goal (or otherwise objective) towards the achievement of which all our actions are directed. The objective is the compass that guides the strategic player.
- Rule 17 – Can You achieve it?
The objectives of a strategy are not enough to be clear. They must also be feasible. Whether they are feasible depends fundamentally on whether they are consistent with the existing balance of power. Choosing objectives that exceed available means is called strategic overextension.
- Rule 18 – Conflict is not only through violent means.
The strategic player has a multitude of means to achieve his goals. This is the concept of high strategy, that is, the use of all available means of a state (military, diplomatic, economic, etc.) to achieve its political goals in the face of actual or potential conflict.
- Rule 19 – War and peace often coexist.
War and peace are not entirely distinct categories. There is a wide range of intermediate situations in international relations. Additionally, even during a conflict, you may have some common interests with your opponent.
- Rule 20 – And the opponent has a strategy.
It is difficult to find a strategic player who, during the process of strategic planning, does not bias in his favor and does not underestimate, even a little, the opponent. As can be seen, this usually has disastrous results.
- Rule 21 – Strategy must anticipate and adapt to developments.
A strategy does not remain unchanged; the original plan may not work, circumstances change, the opponent reacts. Ideally, the strategic player should not only be willing to adapt his strategy to new circumstances, but also have planned how to make this adaptation.
- Rule 22 – Don’t appease your (roughly) equals.
Appeasement is the mitigation of a threat through concessions. Tactical appeasement is a temporary measure, intended to buy time to more easily deal with the threat in the future. Strategic appeasement is a permanent measure aimed at eliminating the threat. The problem is that, in both cases, our unilateral concessions whet the adversary’s appetite for even more concessions.
Tactical appeasement can prove useful if the appeaser feels unprepared to deal forcefully with the threat or if he or she feels that the threat does not exceed certain limits.
- Rule 23 – The force decreases as it moves away from its source.
Each strategic player’s power (in this case, the power of a state) has a seat (a country or part of a country). When this force is applied beyond its seat, the force decreases in proportion to the distance it has to travel.
- Rule 24 – Learn to manage crises.
A crisis is a situation where vital interests are threatened, the danger of war is imminent, and there is pressure of time. Some crises are sham, that is, they are provoked by the aggressor to justify a pre-decided war. Some others are caused by the aggressor in order to challenge the rights of the defender.
- Rule 25 – Alliances can save you – they can and trap you.
An alliance is a formal or informal agreement between two or more states to cooperate in matters of national security. With alliances, weaker states borrow the power of third parties to balance their stronger or more threatening strategic rivals. Alliances have often proved lifesaving for small states. However, alliances also cause dependencies, which can trap their weaker members.
- Rule 26 – How others see you is, in the short term at least, more important than who you really are.
In human affairs, unlike natural phenomena, subjective factors play an important role. Just as businesses try, through advertisements, to create a positive image for their products, so states also try to create a positive international image for themselves.
- Rule 27 – Prudence/Sobriety/Clarity is perhaps the highest strategic virtue.
Clarity in strategy means three things:
- rationally analyze the strategic environment;
- to tame your emotions and the impulses of public opinion;
- be proactive enough to deal with the uncertain and the adverse.
- Rule 28 – Your inner forehead is the corner stone of your strategy.
No strategy can succeed without internal support. Obviously, there will always be naysayers. However, the point is that these dissenters do not exceed a certain critical mass. If they exceed it, and without necessarily being a majority, the strategy faces a problem of internal legitimacy and it is no longer certain that it is considered legitimate within the state.
- Rule 29 – Be a millstone and the opponent be an egg.
In other words, applying your strength (millstone) to your opponent’s weakness (egg). Ideally the weakness will be key and our overwhelming attack on it will have serious consequences for the opponent.
- Rule 30 – Economy is the basis of strategy.
It has been known since ancient times that wealth is a prerequisite for military power. It is wrong to say that states have to choose between power and wealth; in fact, they seek both at the same time.
- Rule 31 – All wars must end and it is good to have figured out how.
Wars are rarely ended in an automatic and meaningful way. Therefore, the lack of concern for ending the war leads to its perpetual prolongation, unnecessary loss of life and the undoing of the very logic of the strategy.
- Rule 32 – Choose the place, time and manner of the conflict.
Ideally we should conduct the conflict with our strategic adversary where it favors us, when it favors us, and how it favors us. Accordingly, we should not conduct it where it favors our adversary, when it favors him, and how it favors him.
- Rule 33 – Let others do the dirty work.
In Rule 7 we emphasized that strategic players should rely on their own strengths as much as possible. But this does not mean that they should spend their energies at the first opportunity. The smart strategy is to conserve their strength by delegating the more onerous strategic tasks to third parties.
- Rule 34 – The adversary is not always rational –or so we think.
Irrational is someone who is either impulsive and constantly changes preferences, or behaves out of touch with reality. Well, in this respect, Turkey is not irrational. But there is also the apparently irrational behavior. Here, the actor thinks rationally, but with values different from our own – something that often happens in cases of different cultures. Our strategic opponent’s goals may not make sense to us, but that doesn’t matter. Our strategic opponent will not “give us an account” of what goals he has set for his strategy.
- Rule 35 – Turn the enemy into a friend: find the common interest where this exists.
In Rule 19, we saw that you may also have some common interests with your strategic opponent. In the present rule, the point is to identify common interests and cultivate them to such an extent that the very conflictual nature of the bilateral relationship is eliminated – at least for a period of time. It should be noted that, when we talk about eliminating the conflict and concessions are made for this purpose, these concessions are not unilateral (appeasement), but mutual (compromise).
- Rule 36 – Concentrate power where it matters, save power where it doesn’t.
The resources we have at our disposal are not unlimited, while the objectives we pursue are not all of the same value. It follows that concentration and economy of power and effort are two sides of the same coin: I save power and effort from where it doesn’t matter so much, so I can concentrate it where it matters a lot.
- Rule 37 – Who is in charge here? Administration module and effort.
Polyarchy obviously has disastrous results.
- Rule 38 – Nothing will go as planned.
On paper, everything will go great. In practice, “whatever can go wrong, will”, as the famous “Murphy’s Law” informs us. Random, neutral-origin incidents, errors, and misfortunes will adversely affect the execution of the strategy.
- Rule 39 – He who risks nothing risks everything.
Rule 27 emphasized the importance of sobriety. However, the bold wins. Almost every strategic move involves risk and involves the investment of resources that may ultimately be lost. But risk-taking is basically unavoidable. In addition, excessive caution and passivity can cause a loss of opportunities and in the long run expose us to even greater risks.
- Rule 40 – War takes a thousand forms – don’t consider it as something it is not.
Each conflict has its own peculiarities. Consequently, the first task of the strategist is to realize the precise characteristics of each war. Thus, mistakes will be avoided and correct decisions will be made.
- Rule 41 – Everything is judged by battle – even if it doesn’t happen.
In the strategic confrontation, sooner or later the time will come for direct confrontation. All the strategic maneuvers and preparations until then are leading towards the final conflict with the strategic opponent. Additionally, potential engagements, i.e. engagements that are threatened but never carried out, should be considered real if they produce results.
- Rule 42 – Strategy is one, but tactics are many.
Within the universal logic of strategy, there are infinite alternative choices of individual courses of action that might bring victory. In general, the more modes of action a strategic player can manage, the more effective they are.
- Rule 43 – Successive tactical victories may lead to strategic dominance – or they may not.
In Rule 41 we saw the decisive role that combat, both actual and threatened, plays. Indeed, tactical victories are the surest way to ultimate strategic dominance. They are also the surest measure of whether the war is going well. Sometimes, however, consecutive tactical victories do not translate into strategic dominance. A typical example was the occupation of uninhabited territory or insignificant cities cannot possibly give us final victory. Even capturing the capital might not be enough, as the enemy prepares for further retreat.
- Rule 44 – All strategy is based on deception, and the child of deception is surprise.
Deception is the conscious and rational attempt to create in the opponent a false perception of reality or to increase his uncertainty. By deception we hide the true and project the false. Deception is not an end in itself, but always aims at obtaining tangible benefits. The most important of these is surprise, that is, to catch the opponent off guard, to do something damaging to him that he does not expect.
- Rule 45 – When you are stronger, win. When you are weaker, don’t be defeated.
In other words, we make sure to redeem our superiority with victory, while correspondingly making sure that our lag does not have decisive results.
- Rule 46 – Physical destruction and psychological control are the two poles of victory.
Besides capturing territory and destroying the enemy’s armed forces, another factor that brings about victory in a war is the bending of the opponent’s will to continue the war. Bending the will of the adversary can be achieved before hostilities even begin, through the psychological control strategies associated with the threat of violence.
- Rule 47 – Morality makes wonders, but in the long run matter imposes its logic.
- Rule 48 – Without logistics you have no strategy.
If you want to talk in depth about strategic issues, you should pay the most attention to administrative care or logistics, that is, to the actions related to the supply, transport and maintenance of military forces. Logistics determines what is strategically feasible and what is not. The irony is that logistics is like health: you only realize its importance when it breaks down.
- Rule 49 – Success breeds success: learn to take advantage of the snowball effect.
A success has consequences, material and psychological. After a success, the strategic player has the opportunity to take advantage of the new situation by quickly pushing for a new success. Back-to-back successes accumulated over a relatively limited period of time create a dynamic in favor of the winner and against the loser. This is the famous “snowball effect”.
- Rule 50 – The marathon runner beats the sprinter: the importance of resilience strategy.
A strategic player who consistently and over time pursues an objective, even with relatively limited means, has a greater chance of achieving it than the player who makes a great effort and mobilizes a multitude of means, but for a short time.
