On December 16, Russian troops fired dozens of rockets into Ukraine’s capital in one of the worst attacks of the war that caused massive power outages across the country. According to the briefing of the British intelligence service, there has recently been an increase in long-range raids on Ukrainian infrastructure.
The briefing said that the waves of strikes launched in Ukraine consisted mainly of air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, and included Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones.
With Russia likely to acquire Iranian ballistic missiles, it could unleash chaos over Ukraine, as the war-torn country lacks enough air defense systems to intercept and shoot down ballistic missiles.
Earlier this week the United States was in the advanced stages of finalizing the delivery of Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine. The latest reports indicate that Washington is considering equipping Kyiv with the most advanced system, the PAC-3 Patriot.
The Patriot PAC-3 is one of the options the US government is now considering sending to Ukraine so that Kyiv can intercept ballistic missiles.
Another alternative for US defense officials is to hire Raytheon Technologies, a major player in the country’s defense sector, to develop new equipment. However, this can take years.
At the same time, the Russian embassy in the United States issued a statement saying that the possible sale of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine would be another aggressive move by the Biden administration and could have “unforeseen consequences.” However, no decision has yet been taken by the US.
The Patriot’s ability to shoot down ballistic missiles is unlikely to be ignored by Russian military authorities. If Patriot systems were widely deployed in Ukraine, they could effectively jam any ballistic missiles Russia might use to attack Ukrainian infrastructure.
Unlike Russian ballistic missiles like the Iskander, which maneuver to avoid interception, Iranian-origin missiles like the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, which have ranges of 300 and 700 kilometers, respectively, follow a straight ballistic trajectory and would be shot down easily by the Patriots.
Moreover, the more advanced variant of the Patriot missile defense system would be considered an offensive move due to its combat capability that could tip the balance in favor of Kiev.
Currently, PAC-3 has only been exported to a few countries, such as Germany, Japan, Kuwait, Taiwan, and the Netherlands.
The main objective of PAC-3 is to counter threats from aircraft, advanced cruise missiles and tactical ballistic missiles (TBM). The PAC-3 missile uses hit-to-kill technology to increase its lethality against TBMs.
Improvements resulting from modifications to the PAC-3 system have increased performance against changing threats, satisfied user needs, and improved joint interoperability. A Patriot array typically contains six to eight truck-mounted launchers with four launch canisters, each it can simultaneously hold up to four missiles.
According to CSIS’s Missile Defense Project, a battery is manned by about 90 soldiers. s.
The overall effectiveness of the PAC-3 Patriot could be gauged by the fact that Patriot missile systems use only one type of interceptor missile for drones, aircraft, and ballistic missiles. In contrast, Russian missile systems such as the S-300, S-350, S-400 and S-500 use multiple types of missiles, each tailored to engage a different type of target.
To put things in perspective, the missile fired by the S-400 to shoot down a drone would not be able to engage a target flying at a high altitude
Moreover, some military experts consider any such transfer of the PAC-3 to Ukraine to be more of a political move.
The number and type of interceptors accompanying the array has yet to be determined. It is possible that additional interceptors and similar equipment could come from other nations, given the numerous Patriot operators worldwide.
The US military recently bought about 180 missiles in one year. In 2023, that number will increase to 252 missiles for $1.037 billion.
However, as the conflict grows more intense by the day, with Russia acquiring ballistic missiles, the PAC-3 will likely fill a critical air defense gap in Ukraine.”
Findings-Conclusions
From the above it is clear how costly but also imperative is the fact of sending the American Patriot anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.
PAC-3 missile defense is expensive. The price of each PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is approximately $4.1 million. PAC-2s are about half the price.
Training and maintaining them is another potential hurdle as Russia develops cheap UAVs and relatively cheaper ballistic missiles it is set to acquire from Iran.
However, missiles of Iranian origin such as the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, which have ranges of 300 and 700 kilometers, respectively, which follow a straight ballistic trajectory, would be easily shot down by Patriots, as would Iranian drones.
Our assessment is that the consequences of sending a significant number of Patriot PAC-3 arrays to Ukraine by the US and other allied countries would have serious positive consequences for the Ukrainians, since it would mean the non-total destruction of the country’s energy infrastructure, the non-provision close air support from the Russians on the first line of the front, which is a catalyst for the development of operations, but also the provision of an anti-aircraft security umbrella to the Ukrainian Reserve Forces, which is extremely necessary considering that a large-scale Russian offensive is imminent, so the reserve forces they will be necessary to seal cracks in the Ukrainian defensive lines, but also to counterattack against the Russians.
