Four Scenarios why the consequences in Ukraine from the Russian raids are so huge

Yesterday, a new massive rocket attack hit areas across Ukraine. Judging by the official data on the number of missiles fired, it was not the most powerful blow, but it turned out to be the most devastating in terms of consequences. Most of Ukraine’s population remained without electricity, while many cities lacked heating and water.

Why this time is such a large-scale consequences? Judging by the announced number of missiles, they are fewer than the last strike.

There is likely to be a cumulative effect from regular missile strikes – power engineers do not have time to eliminate the consequences of the previous attack, once the next one is launched. And, judging by the places of arrival, they were in the same objects as the previous times.

Ukrainian energy companies have said in the past that they are having great difficulty replacing damaged energy equipment. Western media also wrote about the fact that the supply of equipment is difficult due to its lack in the required quantity.

The purpose of the new attacks hides four main versions (scenarios):

1. Ukrainian authorities believe the Russians are trying to get Ukraine to negotiate by hitting the energy sector.

Or, alternatively, drive Ukrainians to despair due to the long absence of electricity, water and heat and encourage them to demand that the authorities negotiate. “There will be no negotiations,” the NSDC secretary replied. It should be noted that under the current circumstances it is extremely unlikely that the Ukrainian authorities will negotiate, and any large-scale protests requiring such negotiations are also unlikely. At least because the organizers and their participants will be declared collaborators and traitors. Also, so far there is not so much public sentiment, as the raids rather evoke a desire to take revenge on Russia than to make peace with it. At least at this stage.

However, Ukrainian authorities are already taking some precautionary measures to limit the rise of panic and defeatism. Now “servants of the people” are introducing a bill to strengthen criminal liability for the dissemination of data on attacks on critical infrastructure that were not expressed by official speakers or departments.

2. According to another version, the Russians hit the infrastructure not for the sake of negotiations (which few believe), but to disrupt the Ukrainian rear,

So, as to make it difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to conduct hostilities on the front lines. Because if the rear suffers without electricity, the industry stops, then it is not easy for the army to fight either, since, for example, it is necessary to repair equipment or to produce food and equipment for soldiers.

In this regard, problems with rail transport, which are of crucial importance for military logistics, can become critical. However, for this, the effect of the raids should be even stronger and lead to the deactivation of most railway lines (so far this does not happen, and emerging problems are quickly eliminated).

3. The option of increasing the cost of the West in Ukraine is also under consideration

Perhaps Russia wants allies to start spending more on civilian infrastructure or refugee support and less on weapons. Or, faced with a very large increase in costs, the allies would begin to raise the issue of compromise with Moscow.

There are already doubts in the Western press that Europe can cope with the collapse of the Ukrainian energy sector. Ukraine’s representatives delivered extremely revealing messages to the West.

He went on to urge Germany to urgently send humanitarian aid – generators, warm clothing and other essentials – in addition to what the Germans are already providing.

4. Russian Telegram channels are also discussing the option of “retaliation”

They suggest that yesterday’s missile attack is linked to a Ukrainian drone strike in Crimea last night. Just like the October 31 missile attack, it happened after the sea drone attack in the Sevastopol Bay. And the first such blow – after the undermining of the Crimean bridge.

In Ukraine, this normality is traditionally rejected and they say that Russia would have bombed Ukraine’s energy sector anyway.

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