All supply routes for the group of Russian troops from the Crimea to the Dnieper will be under attack. The topic of the day is undoubtedly the retreat of Russian troops in the Nikolaev and Kherson regions, which was announced by the military authorities of the Russian Federation.
In our analysis we mentioned that havoc will be caused after the retreat, for the Russians. Within the range of HIMARS is Crimea, stating that if the Russians abandon the right (west) bank of the Dnieper, then the border of Crimea and the mainland will be approximately 72 kilometers from the nearest positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the range of MFOM missiles for HIMARS reaches 80 kilometers.
It should be emphasized that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region creates new risks for the transportation artery, which in its importance is not inferior to the Crimean bridge. We are talking about a land corridor connecting the peninsula with the northeastern part of Novorossiya.
How can the Russian Armed Forces mitigate new threats?
Now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have the opportunity to attack logistics hubs in the north of Crimea, in Armyansk. It is through this that the alternative route to the Crimea passes through the lands from Taganrog to Dzhankoy, after the Ukrainians hit the Crimean bridgehead.
In addition, all supply routes for the group of Russian troops from the Crimea to the Dnieper will be under attack. And in general, the task of defense on the left bank of the Dnieper is not easy, as the bank there is swampy, with a gentle slope. The river in the Kherson area is not as wide as, for example, in the area of dams near Erkondar and Kahovka.
In Crimea itself, they say that the withdrawal of troops from Kherson will not affect the supply of goods to Crimea along the land corridor.
However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will do everything they can to “cut” the corridor, through which not only civilian, but also military cargo is transported.
We believe that the enemy’s next step is the development of the enemy’s attack on the territories of South Russia. To do this, they must deprive the Russian Armed Forces of supplies. In doing so, they will want to break the key supply chains in the region.
Given the constant activation of the DRG and all kinds of terrorist actions on the territory of the Russians, this indirectly confirms the wishes and plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The other day, a group was arrested, whose goal was to blow up electrical substations on the territory of Berdyansk. In addition, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are constantly training and trying to land troops in the direction of the Russian side, near the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant.
That is, it is far from the fact that Ukrainian troops will stop on the west bank and will not try to invade the east bank, forcing the Russians to keep large forces in the region and not move them in other directions.
The enemy’s access to the Dnieper in the Kherson region actually allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to bombard the northern part of the peninsula and jeopardize the possibility of land communication with Crimea. It is completely naive for the Russians to believe that the Ukrainians will not do this, given that the Ukrainian military regularly bombards the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
We should remind that the planes do not fly to the southern airports, especially to Simferoupoli, and the railway communication is as busy as possible. All these factors together create a mass of economic and social issues. The importance of a secure land corridor to Crimea is colossal. But it must be understood that, until they have moved the enemy as far as possible, he will not be safe.
It follows that the Russians must also build up air defense forces in these areas and conduct an active gun battle and make sure that the Ukrainians cannot quietly deploy their systems and hit key hubs in the east. bank from the west bank. The same applies to the dispersion of rear bases, their proper camouflage and other things.
The British, like American officials, continue to express moderate assessments of the developments in Kherson. The Russian Federation’s withdrawal from Kherson will be “evidence of major progress by Ukrainian forces, but it would be right to treat this news with caution until the Ukrainian flag is raised over the city,” Downing Street’s press office said.
