Signs of a change in the course of the Franco-German axis towards China are shown by the visit of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, respectively, to Beijing next month, moves that seem to have alarmed the Commission, after the fate of Russian dependence on the natural gas.
Yesterday, the plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the war drawn up by Berlin and Brussels, a plan that preoccupies the work of the German-Ukrainian business forum, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Schmihal as speakers. The organization is fervently supported by the European institutions, as the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, yesterday co-signed on the website of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sontagszeitung, a joint article with the German Chancellor, under the title: “Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Ukraine”.
In their joint article, the two leaders point out that “it is the duty of an entire generation” to work for the future of Ukraine’s prosperity, pointing out that “when we support Ukraine we build our future and that of our Europe”. For the German Chancellor, after all, the reconstruction of Ukraine is a “task” of the international community that will last decades, when 90% of the country’s infrastructure has been completely destroyed.
However, today’s debate is becoming premature as the war rages on and has not yet been decided, despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s reluctance yesterday that Ukraine should decide the terms of peace with Russia.
From Rome, where he met Pope Francis yesterday, Emmanuel Macron claimed, at the start of a tripartite peace conference, that the international community will be there when the Ukrainian government chooses that time. “Talking about peace now, asking for peace, may seem unbearable for those who fight for freedom, it seems like a betrayal” of Ukraine, the French President stressed, adding, however, that peace cannot be “captured by the Russian power”.
Despite the French President’s attempt to reassure those who suspected a partial withdrawal of European aid towards Ukraine, this remains a possibility, albeit a weak one, due to the intensity of the energy crisis in the EU, due to the coming of winter.
In the same context, the almost simultaneous presence of the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, in Beijing in November, inevitably triggers various scenarios for a possible shift of Europe’s leadership group, vis-à-vis its China policy.
Already, last Friday, on the sidelines of the Summit in Brussels, the German side confirmed the trip of Mr. Scholz (reportedly Emmanuel Macron suggested that they go together), accompanied by a delegation of German businessmen, a few days after the formal ratification of Xi Jinping’s third consecutive five-year term as General Secretary of the CCP.
With these facts, the German Chancellor will be the first Western leader to visit Beijing after the pandemic and in fact two weeks before the G20 Summit in Bali, which is expected to be attended by both the Chinese and the American President , Joe Biden.
For Elysee insiders, the war in Ukraine is destabilizing the Franco-German relationship, noting that both Macron and Soltz are “shocked by a new internal European dynamic that has an Eastern European influence.”
Although the German Chancellor will be a few days ahead of Macron’s visit to Beijing, the latter was quick to warn Olaf Scholz that the EU does not operate as an “open supermarket” when it comes to selling strategic infrastructure and technology.
In this direction, Emmanuel Macron admitted that “we have made strategic mistakes in the past by selling infrastructure to China”, at the end of the two-day EU summit that had EU-China relations on its agenda, adding that “we were naive because we thought that there was a public finance issue to be resolved and that Europe was an open supermarket’.
China as already a key trade partner for Germany in the automotive sector
Behind the study of the German chancellor, however, to set foot on the soil of the People’s Republic of China are hidden, Beijing’s next business steps on the European continent, when China is already a key trade partner for Germany in the automotive sector.
Although the green light has yet to be given, Chinese shipping giant Cosco is one step closer to acquiring a 35% stake in a container terminal in Hamburg, despite the impending deal being strongly opposed by six ministers in Germany’s coalition government, led by Green Vice-Chancellor, Robert Hambeck. However, if the German government does not officially react by October 31, the agreement with Cosco automatically enters into force, although the main argument against it is the unconditional concession to China of a critical German infrastructure, namely Germany’s largest port north.
In this light, Vice-Chancellor Habeck stated that “we learned that dependencies on countries that could then use their own interests to blackmail us are no longer just an abstract phenomenon”, looking towards the case of Russian natural gas. For this reason, “we must not repeat these mistakes”, he concluded. “Nothing has been decided yet and many questions still need to be considered,” countered Chancellor Scholz last Friday. The EU has warned Germany since last year that sensitive information about the operation could end up in the hands of the Chinese if Berlin allowed it finally the investment.
