President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Russian troops had mined a dam and a hydroelectric plant, saying “Russia is deliberately setting the stage for a large-scale disaster in southern Ukraine.” In Russia, they deny that the dam was mined and claim that Ukrainian troops are trying to undermine it. Ukraine denies such intentions.
The possible flooding of the Kherson region in the event of the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is expected to raise a wave of almost five meters high, which will reach Kherson in two hours. However, in Ukraine these calculations have not been officially confirmed. This is far from the first threat related to hydroelectric dams on the Dnieper. In such a disaster, the death of millions of people, flooding of large territories and the rise of radioactive “Chernobyl sludge” from the bottom of the Kiev reservoir are expected.
In 2020, scientists from the National Ecological Council of Ukraine announced the formation of gaps in the design of the Kaniv hydroelectric power station, due to which there is a risk of large-scale destruction by flooding a significant part of Cherkasy. And if this happens, then the dams, located below the Dnieper, will allegedly “start to fall according to the principle of dominoes.” It is clear that war and threats of strikes on the dams increase these risks at times.
What is the Dnieper network?
The Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station and the Kakhovka dam, which authorities are now talking about the risk of an explosion, are part of the large network of hydrotechnical structures on the Dnieper that were built during the Soviet era.
In addition to the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station, the cascade includes the Kiev (Vysgorod), Kremenchug (Svetlovodsk), Sredneprovskaya (Kamenskoye), Dneprovskaya (Zaporiziya) and Kanevskaya hydroelectric stations, each of which is located in a reservoir and has a dam.
The total area of the Dnieper reservoirs is about 7 thousand square kilometers, and the total volume of accumulated water is almost 44 cubic kilometers. These are huge reserves of water. The lion’s share of Ukrainian tanks are concentrated along the Dnieper.
In recent years, in the light of the green march, it was decided to expand the network of pumping stations and hydroelectric stations. Specifically, it was planned to increase the Dnieper waterfall by two more stations. Before the war, there was a preparatory process for the construction of Kanevskaya PSP and Kakhovskaya HPP-2.
Hydroelectric plants are included in the group of flexible generation (along with thermal and thermal power plants) and are an important part of the interconnected energy system, although they have always been criticized by environmentalists. The installed capacity of domestic hydropower, according to Ukrhydroenergo, is 7,350 MW.
Scientists called the Dnieper waterfall a time bomb. The main danger is that the hydroelectric plants were built in densely populated areas and the reservoir areas are very large. That is, any emergency with dams can lead to catastrophic consequences. Recently, in the specialist community, it has also been said that many dams are being depleted of their resources, there have been proposals even to decommission the power generation storage pump and to drain and reclaim reservoirs.
Floods, impenetrable swamps, radioactivity
Even at the beginning of the war, the human rights organization “Ecology, Law, Man” predicted great risks for Ukrainian hydropower plants. The Dnieper network was particularly distinguished.
The experts of this organization also calculated the main risks for the population in case of damage to the infrastructure of the HYS. According to their estimates, in case of damage to the dam of the Dnieper hydroelectric power station, the rate of water rise will be 4-5 meters per second and in narrower places much higher.
For the Kremenchug hydroelectric station, analysts gave the following alignment. If the dam breaks, 70 settlements may fall into the flood zone and about 200 thousand people will suffer.
Thus, in the event of a rupture of the Kremenchug reservoir dam in less than 6 hours, the water flow will reach the village of Fedorovka, Zaporizhzhya region, in 6 hours 18 minutes the wave will reach the dam of the Dnieper hydroelectric power station. After 20 hours, when the water reaches a level of 53 meters, the dam of the Dnieper hydroelectric power station may begin to collapse, after which the area below the Kakhovka reservoir will begin to flood. The rise of water in some parts of the catastrophic flood zone can reach 8-12 meters and will remain at this level from 4 to 7 hours with a further drop in 2-4 days, according to the report of the organization “Ecology, Law, Man”.
Another issue is the radioactivity, including strontium-90 and cesium-137, that settled to the bottom of the Kiev reservoir after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.
Great Threat to Kyiv
Separately, it is worth noting the Kiev hydroelectric station, which is located in Vysgorod. Horror stories about its discovery and a powerful wave that will cover almost half of the capital in minutes have also been spreading for more than a year.
At the beginning of the war, environmentalists gave the following forecast for the development of the situation in the event of damage to the hydraulic structures of the Kiev hydroelectric plant: in the Kiev region alone, the flood zone could be 42 square kilometers with a population of 400 thousand people. The total area of catastrophic floods can reach 8294 square kilometers, this zone will include 536 settlements.
On February 26, the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, citing Ukrvodshlyakh, reported that the destruction of the dam of the Kyiv hydroelectric power station could lead to catastrophic damage and casualties, flooding of Kyiv and its suburbs. Again, there was talk of the domino effect: the destruction of the Kiev dam could cause disasters in the Kanev, Kremenchug and other dams of the Dnieper network.
Talk of a possible disaster at the Kiev hydroelectric power station intensified again in September this year, when the Russians began to strike hydraulic structures on the Ingulets River near Krivoy Rog. The destruction of the dam will lead to the fact that after 3 minutes a four-meter wave will cover the capital Obolon and then go to Troyeschina, Podol and Rusanovka. Floods also threaten 30 other cities and hundreds of villages in the country. However, at that time specialists of the company Ukrhydroenergo tried to refute the “water Armageddon” scenario.
