{"id":9866,"date":"2022-09-25T18:56:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-25T15:56:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=9866"},"modified":"2022-09-25T18:56:51","modified_gmt":"2022-09-25T15:56:51","slug":"if-ukraine-receives-m1a1-abrams-and-leopard2-tanks-will-russia-lose-the-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=9866","title":{"rendered":"If Ukraine receives M1A1 Abrams and Leopard2 tanks, will Russia lose the war?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russia’s 3-day (supposedly) and actually months-long “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has entered a new phase following Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization. Of course, the images of panic at airports, with Russians leaving en masse for Turkey, Georgia and other countries, are not particularly flattering for the superpower. But, for better or worse, Putin has confirmed that the Special Military Operation has failed. And he goes to war, full scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will happen from now on? In our opinion, nothing different from what we already see. If Putin had been a bit more proactive, he would have mobilized his reserves earlier, and had them for a few months in a retraining phase. He wouldn’t have spent his stockpile of modern tanks on costly highway marches in March and April, returned T-62 tanks to service, or returned from Syria the S-300s he had given to Assad. With a T-62 you don’t even fight ISIS, not the Ukrainians.<\/p>\n\n\n

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USTKA, Poland (June 9, 2018) A U.S. Marine Corps M1A1 Abrams tank attached to Tank Platoon, Fox Company, Battalion Landing Team, 2nd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, engage targets at night during live-fire training as part of exercise Baltic Operations (BALTOPS) 2018 at Ustka, Poland, June 9. BALTOPS is the premier annual maritime-focused exercise in the Baltic region and one of the largest exercises in Northern Europe enhancing flexibility and interoperability among allied and partner nations. (Marine Corps photo by Staff Sgt. Dengrier M. Baez\/Released)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

After the Russian rumors that those executed in Butsa were\u2026 actors, another naivety is now circulating: that the fresh Ukrainian troops being trained all over Europe are also mercenaries! Obviously there are mercenaries in the West today, but we’re talking paraphilology here that there are more of them than in Antiquity! However, we have not found any advertisements in the West for mercenaries, while in Russia Wagner hires anyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is all nonsense propaganda, as the West trains the Ukrainians, resulting in the Ukrainian reserves being coordinated and their officers now war-experienced. In addition to all this, the Ukrainians have good telecommunications, have managed to secure their supply lines, and are constantly receiving modern weapons and equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As at the beginning of the war the difference was made by the portable anti-tanks NLAW, Javelin etc. so also in the summer the HIMARS and MLRS rocket launchers made the difference. Where the Ukrainians can hit distances tens of kilometers deep with GMLRS rockets with murderous accuracy. In doing so, they destroyed Russian artillery ammunition depots, leaving the front line exposed and nullifying the Russian advantage of superior firepower.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Of course, the guns of Western origin have also played a big role, the French CEASAR, the American M777, the German PzH2000, the Norwegian M109\u2026 But the quantities that the Ukrainians have received cannot be compared to the incredible numbers of the Russian guns that have been deployed .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian losses in armored vehicles are now being covered in various ways, but mostly with abandoned Russian-sourced material. Many facilities across the country, as well as abroad, repair Ukrainian or Russian tanks, equip them with advanced communications systems, and send them back to the front lines. So the Ukrainians have the ability to make offensive moves, which are absolutely necessary tanks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin, short of declaring war and mobilizing more troops, can’t do much. His armor isn’t enough it seems, or we wouldn’t be seeing them reach the frontline stuff of the 60s and 70s. But let’s assume that they are not finished and Russia can mobilize another 500 T-80\/T-90, as well as 500 T-72. How can the West respond?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western countries have given Ukraine a wide variety of weapons other than tanks, or at least of such Western technology. Derivatives of the T-72 have of course arrived in Ukraine, but these are not game changers at the “chest” level, like e.g. the HIMARS in the rocket launchers, or the PzH2000, CEASAR, M777 in the guns. Does the West have tanks to spare? Mainly two countries, the USA, with the familiar M1A1 Abrams and Germany with the Leopard 2.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The M1A1 Abrams is not the most modern in the US. But it is still more agile, powerful, with better electronics and far superior armor than any tank of Russian-Soviet T-series design. Except maybe the T-14 Armata, if that had gone into regular production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1991 in the 1st Gulf War the M1A1 really “struck” against the Iraqi T-55, T-62 and T-72, destroying them at distances that the Iraqis could not even see the Americans. And the M1A1’s armor has not been able to be penetrated by Iraqi artillery (or so the Americans claim), and in any case its survivability is superior to any tank in service today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The German Leopard 2’s now, do not have the extensive combat records of the M1A1’s, but they remain among the most powerful tanks in the world. Even the “old” Leo2A4s with the 120mm L44 gun can be deadly against the much lighter – Soviet-designed – Russian tanks. And the Leo2A5\/6 models with the even more reinforced armor are certainly superior in survivability to the Russian ones.<\/p>\n\n\n

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German Bundeswehr soldiers drive Leopard 2 tanks on the Grafenwoehr Training Area tank trails during Operation Iron Panzer Dec. 8, 2011. Iron Panzer is a combined live-fire exercise between the U.S. Army\u2019s 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment, and the German Bundeswehr\u2019s 4th Company, 104th Panzer Battalion. This is the first combined live-fire exercise that will incorporate both the German Leopard 2 tank and the American Stryker Mobile Gun System.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In addition to armor, Western tanks are significantly superior in electro-optics and gun stabilization systems. They will detect and engage enemy tanks at very long distances, while the chances of hitting a target while moving are much higher than the Russians will have in a similar mission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, existing Russian tanks can hardly be compared to Leopard 2 or M1A1. Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainian mobile air defenses will not allow either the Russian air force to intervene, or the attack helicopters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is where to find these tanks. Germany has little ready to go. The US has more available, with immediate candidates being those the US Marines are withdrawing. It is believed that there are around 100 to 150 M1A1 tanks in very good condition that can be sent to Ukraine. But will they be able to be used?<\/p>\n\n\n

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A German Leopard 2A6 from 3rd Panzer Battalion fires it\u2019s main gun during the shoot-off of Strong Europe Tank Challenge. U.S. Army Europe and the German Army co-host the third Strong Europe Tank Challenge at Grafenwoehr Training Area, June 3 \u2013 8, 2018. The Strong Europe Tank Challenge is an annual training event designed to give participating nations a dynamic, productive and fun environment in which to foster military partnerships, form Soldier-level relationships, and share tactics, techniques and procedures. ( U.S. Army Photo by Kevin S. Abel)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The complex engine of the M1A1 may pose a problem for Ukrainian engineers. Even the depleted uranium armor of the M1A1s, which to date has probably not been exported, may be an obstacle to their concession, especially if removal is necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second, and more difficult to address, is the difficulty of M1A1 and Leo2A4\/5 fighting in Ukraine due to road network. While bridges in the West are built to specifications for 60+ tonnes, in Eastern Europe they are limited to 35+ tonnes. Thus, many road engineering projects cannot accept the weight of advanced Western tanks. And as the winter progresses and the “Russian mud” appears, bridges and other types of road infrastructure will be absolutely necessary for the development of businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We believe that this is the reason why we have not seen heavy armored vehicles being sent to Ukraine from the West. In the summer, the situation is somewhat “comfortable”, but in the winter, it will be more difficult. But in any case, if we see 100 to 150 M1A1 and 50 to 100 Leopard 2A4\/5\/6 in Ukrainian hands, as has already begun to be discussed internationally, then we will see Ukrainian attacks of a very different nature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia’s 3-day (supposedly) and actually months-long “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine has entered a new phase following Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization. Of course,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[825,3],"tags":[3711,3712,3713],"class_list":["post-9866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","tag-leopard-2","tag-m1-abrams","tag-ukrainian-army"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9866"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9866\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9873,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9866\/revisions\/9873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}