{"id":9710,"date":"2022-09-15T18:34:02","date_gmt":"2022-09-15T15:34:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=9710"},"modified":"2022-09-15T18:34:03","modified_gmt":"2022-09-15T15:34:03","slug":"can-ukraine-become-the-russian-vietnam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=9710","title":{"rendered":"Can Ukraine become the ‘Russian Vietnam’?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Spasmodic movements of the Russian army have been recorded since last Saturday after Ukraine’s counterattack, which now paves the way for Kyiv to put its terms on the country’s next day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the same currency, the Ukrainian armed forces pay Moscow on the completion of 200 days since the start of the Kremlin’s “special military operation”, unfolding a surprise autumn blitzkrieg. It may be that the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, failed in the “lightning war” that he launched last February with the ultimate goal of controlling Ukraine, in order to comfortably secure the “independence” of its eastern regions afterwards, the Ukrainian army, however, it seems that he was waiting for the right moment to take advantage of the months-long fatigue, the lack of a secure and modern communications network, and above all the absence of strong political motivation among the Russian soldiers, to attempt a decisive blow to the Kremlin’s war machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latter, after all, is experiencing a wide disappointment day by day, as the absence of operational coordination, combined with the loss of important positions from the “recapture” operation promoted by the Ukrainians in the last twenty-four hours, intensifies the information about mass surrenders of Russian soldiers, as well as for a rapid retreat even from areas that are centers of gravity in the strategic planning of Russian President Vladimir Putin for his dominance in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n

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“Russian Vietnam”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the unfavorable position in which the Russian troops have fallen is “betrayed” by the extensive aerial bombardment, now aiming for “massive strikes”, resulting in the death of 8 civilians and the wounding of 19 more in the course of a single 24-hour period, according to with Euronews, in the northeastern region of Kharkiv and the eastern region of Donetsk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the aerial bombardment carries the risk of a strong reaction from the world public opinion, nevertheless “the Russian aviation, ballistic and artillery are carrying out massive raids against units of the Ukrainian armed forces in all operational areas”, the Ministry of Defense of Russia announced yesterday, with Ukraine is on the verge of becoming the “Russian Vietnam” if Russian troops fail to stop the Ukrainian advance in the coming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s “fatal” moves<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s decision to send thousands of its best troops to defend Kherson seems to have been “fatal” but also decisive for the course of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exhausted Russian soldiers, after months of continuous warfare, created the right conditions for Ukrainian forces to regain their lost territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest attack appears to be the second stage of a double counter-offensive, first in Kherson and then in Kharkiv. One way or another, Ukraine had been quietly massing forces in the north to strike against defenders in part of the national guard Rosgvardia, the separatist forces from Lugansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian forces first encircled Balakliia, a town 45 miles southeast of Kharkiv, then pushed north to reach the Oskil River south of the railway and supply hub of Kupiansk, and then entered the town. This cut off Izium, a key military center in the south and prompted the Russians to abandon a captured city in late March.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The key movements of the Ukrainians<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine’s success was achieved in part by the use of both tanks and infantry, on a front where the enemy was weakened by long-range artillery strikes (probably by US and other MLRS rocket launchers).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He made particularly clever planning to identify Russia’s weak point and exploited the geography – the river – to maximum advantage. But above all, he made a correct and powerful use of combined arms, the like of which has not been seen since the beginning of the invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia had moved forward thinking that it could, with relentless use of heavy artillery\u201415,000 to 20,000 shells a day\u2014stop Ukrainian forces to the west. Now suddenly it appears that Moscow has spent months engaged in a conflict that at first brought it only limited gains – Sievierodonetsk – and then almost nothing as it failed to capture Bakhmut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most recent battle for Izium shows just how limited the Invaders’ presence is now. The overall quality of Russia’s forces has gradually degraded to around 100,000 troops, who are rarely rotated to recover and must cover the vast Ukrainian front. The movements of the air forces also remain limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, because the Kremlin refuses to talk about “war” in Ukraine, using the term “military operation”, Moscow can mobilize limited additional resources. However, it is unclear how far Ukraine can sustain its momentum. The combination of smart strategy, weaponry and training provided by the West finally seems to be paying off, but pushing too far forward carries risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, maps released by Russia’s defense ministry on Sunday show it plans to retreat to the Oskil River line along Kharkiv, and it remains unclear whether the front will stabilize there.<\/p>\n\n\n

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What should Ukraine take advantage of?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine can now target logistics lines in northern Lugansk province. A Russian loss of Izium may relieve pressure on Sloviansk from the northwest and allow Ukraine to try to reverse losses suffered in Donbas, starting in the direction of Lysychansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, an opportunity is likely to make progress around Kherson in the south, where Russia is likely to have to withdraw its forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, the potential further political impact remains critical. Barring recent events on the battlefield, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to defeat Russia definitively before winter sets in. But Kyiv has shown the difference Western support can and could make next year, deflecting potential outside criticism as energy price rises loom large this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morale in Ukraine remains high and its political goals are broad: to recover all territory, demand reparations from Russia and secure a war crimes trial. Points which the Kremlin does not yet seem willing to concede.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Vladimir Putin and the leadership of the Russian military face serious questions. How they react could determine whether the war they have declared will be won by Russia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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