{"id":9067,"date":"2022-07-07T18:02:26","date_gmt":"2022-07-07T15:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=9067"},"modified":"2022-07-07T18:02:29","modified_gmt":"2022-07-07T15:02:29","slug":"the-west-is-preparing-the-soil-for-abandoning-ukraine-and-legitimizing-putins-choices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=9067","title":{"rendered":"The West is preparing the “soil” for Abandoning Ukraine and Legitimizing Putin’s Choices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The war in Ukraine is not progressing as the US-led Western side wanted. This has created a clear and self-evident strategic embarrassment. The real problem is that this will only breed further destabilization, with the possibility of a spillover of the conflict remaining an open scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of Lugansk and most of Donetsk are now controlled by Russian forces. The assumptions on which the USA and more broadly the West, which if not instigated, certainly supported Ukraine on the road to conflict, were simplistic to say the least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West moved on the basis of wishful thinking rather than a cold analysis of the data at the military and political level. At the strategic level, once again short-term calculations were the first reason, combined with the tactic of “seeing how things will develop and then we will act”. Relying on Russia’s weakness, the US played dangerously with its limits of tolerance. They refused to be content with the fact that Russia had “digested” the integration of the Baltic Republics into NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The Warnings that ignored<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West ignored Russian warnings that a similar move on Ukraine would lead to a stalemate. The current CIA chief himself had warned in the clearest way (as the US ambassador to Moscow) that Ukraine was the ultimate red line. The announcement of NATO’s invitation to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008 was made in the presence of President of Russia Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conflict in Georgia followed, resulting in the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The US-funded and instigated overthrow of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych in 2014 provided the spark that ignited the fire. This was followed by the annexation of Crimea to Russia and the secession of a large part of Donbas. Even this was not enough for the West to realize the slippery slope its relations with Russia had entered. As for Kyiv, let’s leave it better\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why are we wondering that in 2022 the Russian invasion and war took place? Since 2014, the West has harbored the illusion that it could deal a serious blow to Russia by proxy. It trained and armed the Ukrainians and continues to equip them with advanced weapons systems of great destructive power. Some began to fall into the hands of the Russians with all that this implies (reverse engineering, copying the technology through “reverse engineering”).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that’s the least of it. Donbass, the industrial lung of Ukraine, has been lost to Ukrainians for good by today’s standards. The strategy of the West that refused to seek a strategic modus vivendi with Russia, that is to explore the terms of a new security architecture, led Ukraine to further and irreversible territorial losses.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Belarus’ accusations against Ukraine are reminiscent of Georgia’s 2008<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few days ago, it was reported in the international media that Minsk accused the Ukrainians of hitting targets inside Belarus with artillery fire. Despite the given suspicion of any news coming from the Ukrainian front, the silence of the Ukrainian side is taken as a strong indication that the complaint is true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Provided that the information is true, how unlikely is it that either a Zelensky despairing of the course of operations or a section of the Ukrainian military leadership is toying with the idea of \u200b\u200bpushing Belarus into the war. For what reason; In the extreme hope that it might force the West to enter the war on the side of Ukraine, with all that entails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is of course reminiscent of the strategic error committed by the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, in 2008, when he chose to attack Russian troops first, hoping to provoke NATO intervention on Georgia’s side. And this, while the Beijing Olympics were starting with the leaders of China and Russia watching the opening ceremony.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don’t know if the Russians had decided to attack Georgia anyway. The post-Cold War history of military conflict, from the 1991 Gulf War to Georgia and now Ukraine, if nothing else, teaches that the massive concentration of troops on the border is usually not done simply for purposes of intimidation or coercion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the leaders of the target countries, it is politically prohibitive to appear to be backing down just because of a show of military power by the opposing side. The results offer a pattern of developments that follow\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n

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The changing position of the West and the preparation of the world public opinion about it<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An article published in the Washington Post, analyst Michael O’Hanlon, chief analyst of the internationally renowned Brookings Institute, has begun to prepare the common opinion of the West for the change of the West’s strategy in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The specific article states that “the war in Ukraine is killing hundreds of people every day\u2026 It is exacerbating hunger around the world, raising natural gas prices and inflation rates, and at the same time setting the stage for escalating tensions between Russia and the West.” That is why the war should end, and indeed as soon as possible, says the analyst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fundamental question that arises spontaneously is why was this not foreseeable by the US? Energy prices were already on the rise, which entailed inflationary pressures. Those who warned that the ideologicalization of the conflict was leading to a stalemate, were using market-like expressions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also warned of the need to attempt a compromise while Russia was reeling from the negative consequences of the operation’s initial grandiose design. Instead, it was chosen to continuously increase the pressure on Russia with the aim of bringing it to its knees economically. This turned out to be another disastrous miscalculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not to say that Russia does not suffer economic consequences, but as a global energy supplier it benefits from historically high oil and natural gas prices, defraying the costs of the war. On the contrary, the West is suffering from strong inflationary pressures from the sanctions it imposed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this article is also read by Russia. Showing Western weakness to Russia, dramatically reducing any incentive for her to compromise! Not that Russian President Vladimir Putin was waiting for the article to realize that he has had the upper hand for some time now. So there was a missed opportunity\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n

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The “new proposal” of reconciliation between the West and Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s analyze the thought-proposal proposed by the specific Washington Post article for a possible West-Russia collusion with the aim of de-escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First of all, the proposal implicitly but clearly suggests abandoning the rhetoric about the territorial integrity of Ukraine!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the article says: \u201cRussia would retain control of most of the territory it holds today\u2026 control much of eastern Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula and the land bridge between these two areas\u201d! and continuing, “Ukraine may not be ready to accept such a scenario today\u2026Kyiv may well change its mind after a few weeks or months of heavy fighting and some possibly futile attempts to recapture Ukrainian territory that has now come under its control of Russian forces”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The apotheosis of political cynicism by the side (USA) that flagged noble ideals to support its communicative strategy!<\/p>\n\n\n

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Why, however, should the Russians make concessions since logic dictates that they have the advantage and the secession of territories from Ukraine will happen by itself, as the author of the article has argued. That is why we have referred to the ominous future of Zelensky, when on the day after the war the Ukrainians will do the reckoning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most cynical part of “O’Hanlon’s thinking” is, however, different. He proposes, in the context of a scenario of developments, “to hold – after years and from a period of de-escalation of tension – a referendum in the disputed regions that will also judge the future regime of their sovereignty. The options in such a referendum could be three: staying in Ukraine, joining the Russian Federation and independence”!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those who didn’t understand, in Washington some fringes accept what was denounced as “a pretext for the legalization of the annexation of Ukrainian territories”, namely the referendums in the regions that had a Russian-speaking majority anyway! Didn’t this also happen in Crimea? So is the ground being prepared for the legitimization of Putin’s choices?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Was it not the Russian leader who warned that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will be without the eastern provinces and Crimea? If all of the above does not amount to a sell-out of Ukraine, what exactly does?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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