As a defense organization it has been defeated. As it appeared unable to extend its umbrella of protection beyond its Member States. While this seems “reasonable”, as it is supposed to be introverted, there is a historical precedent for interventions in Afghanistan following an “invitation” from the Afghan government or that of Operation Endeavor and the successor to the Sea Guardian, for maritime safety in the Mediterranean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/image-38.jpeg\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nThat is, actions where NATO either unilaterally or in cooperation with an independent country mobilized its forces for “support, peace assurance” and so on. Of course, there was a relevant request for cooperation from Ukraine, which was never formally submitted, perhaps because the Ukrainians knew that the support they would receive would be neither sufficient nor convincing, but also that it would trigger the Russian intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, NATO, in its “great opportunity” within Europe to once again emerge as a strong pole of firmness and stability, probably failed. Its member states in the east (Baltic states, Poland, Romania) felt that there was support for them, but that this was within limits and that Russia remained threatening. The U.S. sending 8,500 troops and a few dozen fighter jets for development inside Eastern Europe, but for areas with a strong Russian threat, is a sad joke, a slight tactical relief that raises suspicions of what will happen in a new round of Russian mobilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- RUSSIA<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
For the first time, Russia says it does not consider Donbass a part of Ukraine. This could pave the way for Moscow to send military forces to the breakaway regions openly, using the argument that it is intervening as an ally to protect them from Ukraine. The separatists would then look to Russia to help them take control of parts of the still-under-Donetsk and Luhansk regions control of Ukrainian forces. If that happens, it could lead to an open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In the case of Georgia, Russia used the recognition of secessionist territories to justify an unrestricted military presence in a neighboring former Soviet republic, in an attempt to curtail Georgia’s ambitions indefinitely in NATO, denying it full control of its territory. The same thoughts will apply to Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand, faces sanctions and international condemnation for abandoning the Minsk process after long claiming to be committed to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In general terms Russia lost, as an overall result. Although it has been convinced of the seriousness of its intentions, it seems that it is on track to extract some, albeit underground, commitments on Ukrainian neutrality and a “freeze” on Kiev’s further convergence with the West. At the same time, however, it brought back to the fore the big issue of its energy exports to Europe, where it covers a large part of the demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now these markets will start to close after the threat expressed by Moscow, so Russia will lose significant revenues from its main source of exports. Especially here the US with its own gas appears ready to fill the gap. Furthermore, the “green” investments that promote local energy production will accelerate even more, while already the EU. described as “green” and nuclear energy. So Russia, although gaining geopolitical prestige in the short term, will see itself as a substitute energy supplier in northern Europe in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another loss for Russia is the general strategic escalation it has caused in Northern Europe. It is expected to see a new round of defense spending with the Baltic states, all of Scandinavia, Poland and partly the Balkans already promoting arms and high-end markets. This is not in Russia’s interest, as the financial strength of all these countries is much greater than its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So in the medium term, Western Europe, which has lived through twenty years of “disarmament”, will begin to fill the gap, increase defense budgets, approach and exceed the 2% of GDP per year in such spending. This also benefits the US, as a more “armed” Europe reduces its demand for US support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/image-40.jpeg\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nAnother point of defeat for Russia: Injuring its relations with the rest of Europe, something that will cost it commercially, exportally, politically, it is almost forced to turn to China. This is a “nightmare” for the United States, but it remains a “nightmare” for Russia. As a possible Russian-Chinese axis, it will now be led by China and not Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beijing has overwhelming economic power, continuous growth, high know-how and innovation, huge cultural capital, young population, vast amount of money available for investment. In other words, it is a country that can “always” gently “impose” its own proposals. For Moscow’s “imperial” logic and fantasies about its perpetual omnipotence in the “heartland” (the well-known outdated geopolitical analysis that wants the Russian-post-Soviet zone as the “center of the world”), dependence on China will be an unfavorable development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Does Russia have any gain other than consolidating Ukrainian neutrality? Yes, in its south, in the former Soviet Turkish-speaking republics, which have now all received the message – especially after the Russian intervention in Kazakhstan – that Moscow remains the local guarantor of security. The latter is not a small thing, since Russia ensures, unknown to what extent, cooperation in its historical vulnerability, ie those vast areas of Central Asia, which traditionally China wants to influence, but also Turkey is recently seeking a role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- UKRAINE<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
One of the protagonists who, if he does not know the Russian invasion as many “announce”, comes out partially victorious. Yes, the Russian threat confirms that the Russian-speaking areas of Donbas and Crimea have been permanently separated from Ukrainian sovereignty. This has been seen since 2014, but now the confirmation is final. Russia will not leave, and we may soon see Donbass’s declaration of independence, either ostensibly or because the Ukrainians will make the mistake of continuing to bomb the separatists there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So how do we rank Ukraine among the winners, at least in part, with such a loss of sovereignty? Because it is this loss that unites, structures and purifies the Ukrainian national identity, the securing of its other borders, its appearance on the international stage as an “autonomous country, even in need of help.” The Russian adventure for Ukraine, and especially after 2014, seems to be completing and thus ending a great historical cycle of subversive confrontation with Moscow, defined sometime in the early 20th century with the Bolshevik sweep of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/image-41.jpeg\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nOf course, this is not the only result of the crisis for Ukraine. Its apparent weakness has already attracted significant international assistance, mainly financial and less military, which may help it in the coming years in its development perspective, which we assume will continue with positive Western intervention. While the mobilization of the last months as well as the ammunition it received, it partially strengthened its military performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The losses, of course, were significant. Initially, the democratic demand fell. Its already corrupt political structure has once again “hidden” behind cheap nationalism, while in peace much of the international aid and lending will probably be devoured by the domestic oligarchy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The minimal Zelensky, a post-Soviet caricature reminiscent of Yeltsin in its “good”, that is, a mixture of pompous cynology and great political instability, vulnerable and dependent on local and international pressures, is not the best for a country of this importance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Ukrainian population, too, within a nationalist cluster and armaments spending will see neither the reduction of economic inequalities nor the overall improvement of its quality of life. With the older ones still longing for the “good Soviet years” and the younger ones going abroad en masse in search of a better day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- EU<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Germany, for the time being, is always ranked on the side of the winners. It avoided substantial involvement in Ukraine (sending some insignificant aid), made a rather intense diplomatic effort to pacify the region, but did not sever ties with Russia. Thus he kept a balance between Russian aggression and American warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, it has faced strong criticism from other NATO countries, that it does not contribute to the common front against Russia and in fact undermines it, but has the diplomatic and economic power as a country to counter this targeted accusation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/image-42.jpeg\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nIn contrast to Germany, the European South is losing prestige, albeit not large. Italy and Spain “shone through their absence” from what was happening. It is not uncommon, but it is also sad, that such a crisis is taking place so close to the European core and that the large front-line countries of the South remain inactive, indecisive and minimal in intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The political weight in such situations is gained and not through disgust. France in particular may have remained the same. Macron’s hard-working diplomacy, his mediation efforts, his intervention in general in Eastern countries, showed that Paris remains a hub of dialogue and conciliation. But here, too, France has missed the opportunity, in its historic quest for secular supremacy in the EU: its action could be stronger, more pressing, more emphatic and even more radical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- USA<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
We left it last in the analysis because it is the superpower with a profit, despite its defeat. We explain the paradox: American diplomacy and especially its public administration has been a constant joke, at least until today. It was ridiculous for the global protector to announce the Russian invasion every week, offering plenty of laughter in the Kremlin that simply did not appear at the “war date.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The presence of the entire US government, led by President Joe Biden, to talk incessantly about the great threat posed by Russia from which the “planet is in danger” and on the other hand to do nothing substantial to cancel it, left huge questions for the substantial dynamics of the given American power. The “land of the free” promise to freeze the assets of Russia and Vladimir Putin abroad if they invade Russia has been interpreted – and rightly so – internationally that Moscow can do whatever it wants, it just has to pay a fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In practice, US military mobilization was minimal. The forces that moved to Europe were fewer than those seen in large annual NATO exercises, or in the permanent unit movement program. Neither a new US fleet appeared in the Mediterranean nor in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Right now in the whole NATO zone, there is only one aircraft carrier, the USS Harry Truman, in the Mediterranean and nothing else! These were immediately realized by the countries of the alliance. And yet here is recorded the first “victory” of the USA. As the nakedness of European countries in the face of the Russian threat increases their dependence on American magnanimity. And at the same time it forces them into armaments, so it relieves and serves the American intention to move to the Pacific. By that logic, the US diplomatic defeat is offset by the promotion of a strategy that requires Europe to “find its own footing” and stand up without so much American support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/image-43.jpeg\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nThe second American victory is in the financial field. The big European market for American gas, American equipment, American investment funds, American banks that will finance the development here and the European ones are still trying to recover from their mismanagement and misguided investments, all of these are very high returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For anyone watching the economic scene in Europe, it is clear that American “aid” is growing, and of course it will benefit even more if local economies turn valuable capital into equipment, strategic infrastructure, energy subsidies. So again in the medium to long term the US is gaining financial clientele as well as customer relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third point of American interest: The strategic isolation and encirclement of Russia, as described above. The analysis in Washington is about a Russia that is operating on much bigger fronts than it can really support. And important (for the Moscow measures) armaments and involvement in Syria, and intervention in Ukraine, and support of Belarus and control of Central Asia, and presence in Africa. So the question remains: On how many of these fronts can Moscow sustain its action and for how long?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We have said, of course, that the United States has been degraded in managing the Ukrainian crisis. And this is not a small thing, because traditionally American political capital was both large and with great weight. And it can not be unleashed so easily, even in the face of a substantial regional conflict within the post-Soviet zone. And it will cost the US heavily in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is, when the confrontation with China becomes even more serious and Washington will be called upon to pursue diplomacy in Southeast Asia, an area with great controversy for American supremacy. So yes, we believe that the United States is benefiting from the Ukrainian crisis, but this is temporary and may eventually be canceled out by a convincing Beijing threat, which will not just make an accumulation of “soldiers”, as Moscow ostensibly did. But with an accumulation of production, electronics, new technologies, hundreds of thousands of engineers and skilled technicians, large investment funds, lots of products, favorable trade agreements, economic pragmatism, and above all Chinese patience.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In the present analysis we will try to present an initial assessment of what the main geopolitical protagonists have gained in the Ukrainian crisis…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[825,3,826],"tags":[161,25,124,58,1156,215],"class_list":["post-7766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","category-usa-geopolitical","tag-china","tag-eu","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-us"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7766"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7786,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7766\/revisions\/7786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- USA<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- EU<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- UKRAINE<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n