{"id":7126,"date":"2021-12-02T18:34:22","date_gmt":"2021-12-02T16:34:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=7126"},"modified":"2021-12-02T18:34:24","modified_gmt":"2021-12-02T16:34:24","slug":"olaf-scholz-government-risk-of-ineffective-implemented-policies-for-germany-and-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=7126","title":{"rendered":"Olaf Scholz Government: Risk of Ineffective Implemented Policies for Germany and the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As it took six months to form the new government in 2017, the parties that make up Olaf Scholz&#8217;s new government moved very quickly to form it. The question, however, is whether these parties can ensure government effectiveness in favor of Germany and the EU respectively. The most likely answer to this question is no. More specifically and considering these reasons that lead us to this answer are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The increase in German spending within NATO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Foreign Ministry passes from the Social Democrats to the Greens. Germany in the presence of the Social Democrats in the Foreign Ministry did not have a strong intervention in foreign policy issues as it was limited to exercising economic influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Greens oppose the increase in Germany&#8217;s defense spending to 2% of GDP per year as a rule of NATO, while the Greens&#8217; electoral base strongly supports the removal of US nuclear weapons from Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Germany, due to the insistence of the Greens, moves even further away from the 2% per annum limit of GDP of defense spending, the US reactions will be immediate, further reducing the US military presence in Europe, by reducing the corresponding funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/image-5.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7128\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The Greens will engage in a verbal defense of human and democratic rights, but without Germany having the level of military training and political commitment that can limit the actions of leaders such as Putin, Erdogan and Lukashenko respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Germany&#8217;s special weight in international diplomacy is small in relation to its capabilities and we anticipate that it will shrink further with the composition of the Federal Government of Olaf Scholz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fiscal discipline above all<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The German Ministry of Finance is now being transferred from the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Social Democrats to the Liberals and their leader Christian Lindner. The refusal of Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2017, to give the Liberals and specifically to their leader the Ministry of Finance, led the Liberals not to support the then Merkel government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Christian Lindner is an advocate of EU financial management and funding. Its electoral base is made up of the German middle-income class and the self-employed, who believe that a lower tax burden is needed and a reduction in the German contribution to the EU budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They are in favor of the Constitutional debt ceiling for Germany, while opposing the establishment of the EU European Recovery Fund to deal with the economic consequences of the pandemic. He is in favor of enforcing the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact. We anticipate that due to the personality of Christian Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will face great difficulties in directing his Minister of Finance to these critical issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The green energy transition and the great confusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Ministry of Economy is now being taken over by the Social Democrats in the hands of the Greens, but with increasing responsibilities that will cover the issues of tackling climate change. The Liberals in the Ministry of Finance are in favor of strict control over public spending and in the Ministry of Economy the Greens, who want to accelerate the green-energy transition by increasing large public investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Liberal-Green compromise so far is based on the following reasoning:<br>The Greens will finance the green energy transition through the use of special financial instruments of the wider public sector of the economy, but without burdening the federal budget deficit and the debt of the federal government respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, the Liberals will create the expected business framework with the appropriate policies, in order to mobilize investors willing to invest in favor of the green-energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Only time will tell whether these policies will work effectively in practice, given the ever-increasing inflation that is now gnashing its teeth at the Olaf Scholz government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/image-4.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7127\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Olaf Scholz: the capabilities of the new Chancellor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the first time in 50 years, a three-party ruling coalition is being formed in Germany, with key ministries headed to the smaller parties in the coalition. The distribution of ministries is six for the Social Democrats, five for the Greens and four for the Liberals. Given this distribution, the new Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have to demonstrate a high level of coordination, conductor, in order for the new governing coalition to be effective in implementing its policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Olaf Scholz is a man from the Social Democrat party apparatus, very hardworking, moderate and mild-mannered. He is not a charismatic personality. He never came up against issues of major importance with Chancellor Merkel as Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance in her governments. The reasons why Chancellor Olaf Scholz won the election in September 2021 as a leader are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Pandemic enabled him to provide generous packages of financial assistance to German companies and workers, while supporting the EU in proposing the creation of a European Recovery Fund for the effects of the pandemic.<\/li><li>The non-emergence of a new leader on the part of the Christian Democrats.<\/li><li>The problems and divisive tendencies that appeared on the side of the Christian Democrats, with the Lasset-Zender dipole for the position of Chancellor. The division of the Christian Democrats appeared with the unity of the Social Democrats.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While Olaf Scholz is characterized as hardworking, methodical and efficient, it is doubtful whether he will be able to work harmoniously with the leadership of the Greens and the Liberals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This fact shows us that, at least at the beginning of his term, the new Chancellor may appear with limited leadership abilities. Surely such a pattern of governance and leadership will be largely passed on to the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The greater the misunderstanding between the members of the new German government, but also of its ineffectiveness, the more difficult it will be to coordinate at EU level to deal with crises and new problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new French-Italian coalition intends to fill any political gaps on the German side.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As it took six months to form the new government in 2017, the parties that make up Olaf Scholz&#8217;s new government moved very quickly&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[818,390],"tags":[489,2700,1142,1006,1037],"class_list":["post-7126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-politics","tag-germany","tag-greens","tag-liberals","tag-olaf-scholz","tag-spd"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7126"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7126\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7129,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7126\/revisions\/7129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}