{"id":3925,"date":"2021-01-28T15:07:04","date_gmt":"2021-01-28T13:07:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=3925"},"modified":"2021-01-28T15:07:08","modified_gmt":"2021-01-28T13:07:08","slug":"the-new-scenarios-caused-by-political-instability-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=3925","title":{"rendered":"The New Scenarios Caused by Political Instability in Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The new period of political instability in Italy was recently ushered in by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s attempt to change the political scene in his interest. Despite his efforts so far, the Conde Government has managed to get the necessary votes in the House and senate respectively, avoiding its downfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, any effectiveness of it given the lack of a majority in the Senate is being taken hostage. In this way, Italy has a political stability which is accompanied by characteristics of stagnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a9<\/em>The law of intellectual property is prohibited in any way unlawful use\/appropriation of this article, with heavy civil and criminal penalties for the infringer.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fan of political scenarios in Italy had now opened by including all types of scenarios. Either the Conde Government would expand through cooperation with independent MPs and senators or use some small-scale political forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alternative scenario is also what happened, namely the resignation of the Conde government and early recourse to the polls. In addition, there is the scenario of replacing the government without elections, with its support being taken by far-right forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italy’s political destabilisation could create a domino effect, even a crisis in eurozone bond markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Political Games<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Italy’s two former prime ministers Matteo Renzi and Silvio Berlusconi, respectively, are moving extremely risky to reap the benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matteo Renzi, as a former prime minister and now leader of the small-capacity Italia Viva party, which in the polls records a figure of 3%, believes that the Giuseppe Conte government is not properly prepared to manage the \u20ac210bn funds claimed by Italy from the European Recovery Fund and supports the Italian State’s recourse to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to cover the economic consequences of tackling the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has become a personal political vendetta between Matteo Renzi and Giuseppe Conte. The first attempt to remove Giuseppe Conte was made by Northern League leader Matteo Salvini, who caused the coalition government to fall, seeking the removal of Giuseppe Conte and its full control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, Giuseppe Conte remained prime minister with the support of a different coalition that now included the Pro-European Democratic party instead of the Northern League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pro-European centre-left Democratic party and the profile of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, as well as Finance Minister Roberto Gualtieri, gave the required lull to both international markets and the Eurozone. This achievement was the fall in the borrowing costs of the Italian State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matteo Renzi’s efforts to bring down Giuseppe Conte’s government also involve the other former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi; whose Forza Italia party holds 8% in the polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But 8% want to use this to change the balance of power in a new Italian government based on conservatives and the far right. Polls show that such political games with exchanges of party “comrades” to create a new Italian government are possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The League of the North reaches 24%. The center-left Democratic party is moving around 20%. The far-right Italy\u2019s Brothers Party reaches 16% by constantly taking percentages from the Northern League. The Five Star party reaches 15%. Matteo Renzi’s party 3% and Forza Italia 8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forza Italia expresses the European Centre-Right and joins the European People’s Party as well as the Brothers of Italy to form a three-party government with Silvio Berlusconi as President of the Republic and with Mateo Salvini if not in the position of Prime Minister the politician who will define the main political directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It goes without saying that such a scenario would cause a “brain stroke” for the leaders of Brussels, while causing a crisis of confidence against Italy, an increase in the borrowing costs of the Italian State, a crisis in the Eurozone, blackmail of the Eurozone for a new Italexit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Lifting Financial Burdens<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tackling the pandemic has boosted the public debt of the EU, the Eurozone and, of course, Italy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source of Data: Eurostat, https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/databrowser\/view\/sdg_17_40\/default\/table?lang=en, 26\/01\/2021<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The increase in public debt is due to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. The big increase in public spending to support the economy.<\/li>
  2. To reduce tax revenues due to the deep recession associated with the pandemic.<\/li>
  3. The large fall in GDP leading to an increase in government debt as % of GDP.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The pandemic has created a new dynamic of over-indebtedness in Italy and the Southern Eurozone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Political developments <\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Parliamentary elections in Italy are scheduled for 2023, laying the groundwork for a new political destabilisation in Italy. It is the obligation of Italy’s political world to promote scenarios that enhance stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A personality like that of Mario Draghi-the former governor of the European Central Bank could mark a new era. But the political forces in Italy are not ripe to accept to enter under the cover of such a strong and prominent personality, while Draghi himself knows that all the political forces want is to use him for re-election and then empty him by replacing him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Another possible political development will be Italian President Sergio Mattarella, to give permission to the Conte government with another political formation to continue the effort without a stable majority in the Senate but negotiating each time both its decisions and bills and its effectiveness. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The new period of political instability in Italy was recently ushered in by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s attempt to change the political scene…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[818,390],"tags":[993,2332,644,2333,2330,2331],"class_list":["post-3925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-politics","tag-giuseppe-conte","tag-italexit","tag-italy","tag-matteo-renzi","tag-political-instability","tag-sergio-mattarella"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3925"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3925\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3950,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3925\/revisions\/3950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}