The loss of these four regions transforms Ukraine from a potential raw material and energy hub for Europe into a country deeply dependent on Western subsidies, deprived of a crucial part of its industrial base and access to strategic reserves of the metals of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These are the key reasons preventing Zelensky, the US, and the European Union from accepting Russia’s proposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At stake are trillions of dollars and control over the technological future. What is being discussed in Washington circles is whether President Trump\u2014in order to persuade Vladimir Putin to end the war\u2014might propose direct US participation in the joint exploitation of these resources to Russia, in exchange for the restoration of the entire Donbas region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The deal could take the following form:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- American technology and investment in lithium and rare earth mining.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- American technology and investment in the rehabilitation of the coal industry and energy infrastructure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Russia would gain capital and access to advanced technologies, while the US would secure guaranteed access to strategic raw materials\u2014bypassing China\u2014along with massive contracts for American companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For Washington, under this scenario, such a deal would make sense: it would serve as a way to reduce dependence on Chinese supplies of rare metals, open up new markets, and create a geopolitical lever of influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moreover, it could be framed as a “pragmatic approach” and a means to exit an endless conflict without a loss of prestige.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Europe Left Out<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
And what remains for Europe? The fate usually reserved for those who foot the bill but do not sit at the negotiating table: the tab for rebuilding the ruins, the social burden of millions of refugees, and a politically unstable territory stripped of its industrial base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, Europe would gain no access to the resources of these new territories. All contracts would be concluded between Moscow and Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brussels would be left with nothing but the role of an observer paying the price for a war fought by others. If Russia and the US were indeed to reach such an agreement, Europe would be faced with a fait accompli<\/em>: the two key players would have come to terms without it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It would then have to either accept the situation or remain on the sidelines of a new reshuffling of the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The battle for the future<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
In geopolitics, there are no eternal enemies\u2014only eternal interests. And should those interests align, the world could witness an agreement that reshapes the map of global raw material flows for decades to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the meantime, the battle for the Donbas is about lithium, rare earth elements, energy, and control over the resources essential to the functioning of the 21st-century economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The question is not whether these territories are worth fighting for. The question is who will be at the table when the $12.4 trillion is carved up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0391.<\/strong> “White gold” slipping away<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
In February 2025, Russia confirmed the capture of the Shevchenkivske lithium deposit in the Donetsk region. Confirmed lithium ore reserves there amount to 13.8 million tons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prior to 2022, Ukraine surpassed Portugal\u2014long considered the European leader\u2014in lithium reserves. Controlling lithium means controlling batteries, electric vehicles, and “green” energy. It means controlling the technological future for decades to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And now, that control lies in Russia’s hands. However, lithium is just the beginning. Deposits of zirconium, titanium, uranium, and rare earth elements are located in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov region is home to the Belozersky iron ore zone, where high-quality ore with an iron content exceeding 60% was mined. The deposit was discovered in 1955 and, until recently, remained a key source of raw materials for the Ukrainian metallurgical industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The loss of these assets means that Ukraine is transforming from a potential supplier of critical raw materials for Europe into an importer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia, on the other hand, gains the ability to dictate terms in the global market for rare metals\u2014the very metals essential for both the aerospace industry and semiconductor production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0392.<\/strong> Energy Knockout<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. It comprises six reactors with a total capacity of 6 GW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Until February 2022, it supplied more than a quarter of the Ukrainian energy system’s total generating capacity. The Zaporizhzhia plant represents a blow to both the Ukrainian energy sector and the European energy market. The balance of power is currently shifting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia is gaining control of facilities capable of supplying electricity to all of southeastern Ukraine and parts of neighboring countries. Kyiv, conversely, is forced to purchase electricity from abroad, increasing its reliance on Western loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before the war, the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions were hubs of Ukrainian “green” energy, hosting some of the largest wind and solar farms, such as the Botiieve, Prymorske, and Orlivka wind farms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Investments in these projects amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars. All of them are now either under Russian control or out of operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another strategic asset consists of the natural gas deposits located on the continental shelf of the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov and in the coastal zone. Ukraine could have developed into an independent natural gas supplier for Europe, undermining Russia’s monopoly. That opportunity has now been lost.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-76-1024x683.png\")
<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
C.<\/strong> Coal and Logistics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine is losing more than 63% of its coal reserves. The Donetsk coal basin holds over 30 billion tons of anthracite and coking coal reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Without these, Ukraine\u2019s heavy metallurgy and thermal power generation sectors have become critically dependent on imports. Before the war, Ukraine exported coal; now, it imports it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Furthermore, the Donbas\u2014under Russian control\u2014could once again become a key supplier of coal to the global market, particularly to Asian countries, where demand remains consistently high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With the loss of Mariupol and Berdyansk, Ukraine has completely lost access to the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov. Prior to 2022, these ports handled approximately 7.5% of the country’s maritime exports\u2014including metals, coal, and grain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The port of Mariupol served as the Donbas’s gateway to the world. Now, that gateway is closed to Kyiv. Russia’s control over the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov poses a constant threat to the port complexes of Mykolaiv and Odesa. Any operation in the northwestern Black Sea now takes place under the close surveillance of Russian coastal missile systems and the fleet. Control over the Kherson region also entails control over the mouth of the Dnieper, Ukraine’s main waterway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D.<\/strong> Water and land<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions boast unique black soil\u2014some of the most fertile in Europe. Before the war, Kherson led Ukraine in the export of vegetables, melons, watermelons, and berries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most important, however, is water. The main Kakhovka Canal and the North Crimean Canal constitute some of the largest irrigation systems in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kakhovka Canal supplied water to more than 326,000 hectares across the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Without control over these water infrastructure hubs, effective agriculture in southern Ukraine becomes extremely difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant in June 2023, the situation became even more critical. Thousands of hectares of land were left without irrigation. Restoring the infrastructure will require billions of dollars and many years. At the same time, Russia gains the ability to restore the water supply to Crimea, which had been facing a severe water shortage since 2014.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The transfer of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions to Russian control spells the collapse of Ukraine’s ambitions to become a raw material…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30456,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[825,3,826],"tags":[5775,655,8421,470,58,1156,70,1166,1976],"class_list":["post-30455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","category-usa-geopolitical","tag-deal","tag-donald-trump","tag-donbas","tag-europe","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30455"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30455\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30478,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30455\/revisions\/30478"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/30456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}