The war in Yemen\u2014largely overlooked by the media\u2014is turning into a nightmare for Saudi Arabia and its willing allies. Although some eleven years have passed since Saudi forces intervened in the civil war\u2014with the backing of the US and NATO\u2014in response to the imminent threat of the entire country falling to Tehran-allied Houthi militias, Riyadh\u2019s desperate campaign continues to fail. It has been unable to bring large parts of the country under its control, despite the fact that its adversaries are clearly inferior in terms of material and logistical capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The prospect of a regime closely linked to Shiite Iran emerging in Yemen\u2014one that would control the Red Sea straits\u2014prompted the March 2015 intervention by Sunni-Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. The Saudi-led coalition\u2019s intervention aimed to curb the growing influence of Shiite Iran\u2014exerted through the Houthis\u2014in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is worth recalling that the island of Socotra, located in the Indian Ocean\u2014approximately 80 km from the Horn of Africa and 380 km south of the Yemeni coast\u2014belongs to Yemen. Situated at the intersection of the strategically important maritime corridors of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Socotra occupies a vital geostrategic position. Together with the Diego Garcia naval base in the Indian Ocean\u2014one of the largest US military installations abroad\u2014Socotra is key to securing full control over the maritime corridors of the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Saudi’s War with Houthis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Without exaggeration or dramatization, over the past four days, the Saudis and their allies have lost everything they had amassed in the Yemen war since 2015. Years earlier, the Houthis (or Ansar Allah) were a rebel group concentrated primarily in Saada and northern Yemen, having waged several wars against the Yemeni army under Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Saleh regime used its war against the Houthis to garner support from the US and Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, following the so-called Arab Spring and the collapse of Yemen’s old political system, everything changed rapidly. In a relatively short period, the Houthis managed to advance south from Saada, capture Sanaa in 2014, and subsequently push on to the outskirts of the key city of Aden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Saudi Arabia intervened at precisely this juncture, as Houthi control of Aden would have placed them on the verge of controlling the greater part of Yemen\u2014including the ports and strategic areas spanning the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Gulf of Aden. Initially, the Saudi intervention was indeed successful in keeping Houthi forces away from Aden. Subsequently, troops backed by Saudi Arabia and its allies recaptured parts of the southern and western coasts. Following this, the front lines stabilized, and Yemen became embroiled in a long war of attrition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet, over more than ten years of war\u2014despite all the money, fighter jets, weaponry, and political and military support at the disposal of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and their allies\u2014they failed to capture Sanaa, destroy the Houthis, or retake most of the territories held by the latter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In reality, the most significant achievement was securing control over the western coast\u2014stretching south from Hodeidah to Al-Mukha, Dhubab, and Bab al-Mandab, along with the surrounding areas and islands. This region represented, for all practical purposes, the most substantial military foothold Saudi Arabia and its allies had established in western Yemen throughout ten full years of war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And what happened now?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It took the Houthis only a few days to reclaim more or less all of this. In roughly a week of intense ground offensives, the front line that Saudi Arabia and its allies had spent years building and securing collapsed. And this is a genuine disaster for Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To understand why, we must grasp the significance of the west coast itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One of Yemen’s key cities that remained outside Houthi control in recent years was Al-Mukha\u2014not merely because it is a coastal city, but because it houses a major port and serves as the primary route to the Bab al-Mandab Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In previous years, the Houthis controlled the port of Hodeidah and a defined coastal strip to the north; from this area, they launched most of their maritime operations against Israel-linked vessels during the 2023 Gaza war. Subsequently, they engaged in direct confrontation with the US and the supporting NATO fleet in the Red Sea from that same region. However, they operated from a relatively limited geographic position, as they had to employ long-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, and naval weaponry to reach ships in the south or near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nevertheless, they demonstrated an ability to disrupt shipping and force major oil tanker companies to alter their routes. Yet, imposing a more comprehensive blockade\u2014particularly against Saudi oil tankers\u2014proved more difficult as long as Al-Mukha, significant sections of the western coast, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait remained outside their control. This is because Saudi Arabia is able to effectively transport oil using its own tankers, which are largely unaffected by maritime insurance costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And this is precisely what has changed now. The Houthis now maintain firm control over Yemen\u2019s western coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait\u2014including Perim Island\u2014thereby enhancing their ability to monitor maritime traffic and threaten ships and oil tankers to a far greater extent than they could in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This highlights the danger facing Saudi Arabia; while the Kingdom had previously managed to transport a significant portion of its oil through the Bab al-Mandab Strait\u2014despite the blockade of the Persian Gulf\u2014it will no longer be able to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The question remains whether the US will intervene in Yemen, given that the unfolding situation is highly advantageous for Iran. Yet, can the US afford to open a second front in the Arabian Peninsula region?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The war in Yemen\u2014largely overlooked by the media\u2014is turning into a nightmare for Saudi Arabia and its willing allies. Although some eleven years have…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30338,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,834],"tags":[1108,160,1107,2424],"class_list":["post-30336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitical","category-middle-east-geopolitical","tag-houthi","tag-iran","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-yemen"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30336","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30336"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30336\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30339,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30336\/revisions\/30339"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/30338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30336"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30336"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30336"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}