Germany is preparing for an election that would have seemed almost unthinkable just a few years ago. On September 6, the people of Saxony-Anhalt go to the polls, and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is not just claiming a good performance. It is in a position to win the election and, under certain conditions, even gain enough seats to govern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The latest polls put the AfD at around 41%, with the CDU a long way behind, at around 24%. A victory for it would be a historic turning point for post-war Germany. For the first time, a radical right-wing party could take power in a German state. And the significance of the vote goes far beyond Saxony-Anhalt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The AfD is no longer a political phenomenon confined to eastern Germany. Its strength has grown at the national level, while the party is trying to turn its regional successes into a springboard for federal power. The hitherto political “firewall” – the famous Brandmauer, i.e. the refusal of traditional parties to cooperate with it – is being tested more than ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From Eurosceptic Protest to Prospect of Power<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The AfD was founded in 2013, initially as a Eurosceptic party that reacted to the Eurozone\u2019s bailout policies. In just over a decade, it has transformed into a much broader political force, with immigration, national sovereignty, opposition to important aspects of European integration and criticism of Berlin\u2019s policies at the core of its agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The big question now is not whether the AfD can influence German politics. It already does. The question is whether it can one day govern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Saxony-Anhalt could be the first big test. The AfD has a particularly strong presence in the former East Germany, where it is fueled by dissatisfaction with the political establishment, economic and social inequalities between east and west, and a sense among a section of the population that Berlin does not represent it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A government victory there would not automatically mean that the AfD is one step closer to the chancellorship. But it would break down an important political and psychological barrier. The idea that the party can win votes, but cannot govern. Somewhere here the discussion ceases to be exclusively about Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What is Dexit?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The word “Dexit” was coined along the lines of Brexit and describes the possibility of Germany leaving the European Union. The AfD has occasionally left this possibility open, with Alice Weidel having spoken of a referendum on whether the country should remain in the EU unless the far-reaching reforms the party is calling for are carried out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This does not mean that a potential rise to power by the AfD would automatically lead Germany out of the European Union. Dexit would be an extremely complex political, economic and constitutional process. But it does reveal the scale of the conflict over the future of European integration. And Germany is not just any country in the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is its largest economy, its most populous country and one of the main political and economic pillars on which the European project was built. A Germany that openly challenged the euro, Schengen, or even the EU itself would change the balance of power across the continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The economic estimates for a hypothetical Dexit are indicative of the scale of the stakes. Studies have estimated losses of hundreds of billions of euros for the German economy and millions of jobs over time. For an economy so deeply tied to the European single market and the production chains of the rest of the continent, leaving would be very different \u2013 \u200b\u200band likely much more complicated \u2013 than Brexit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why does it matter to the whole of Europe?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The outcome in Saxony-Anhalt is not just a German state. Not even just Germany. The political direction of the European Union\u2019s largest economy has the power to shift the balance across the continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For decades, Berlin has been one of the main drivers of European integration. From the euro and the single market to migration policy, the green transition, sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine, there can hardly be a major European decision without Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A stronger AfD could change this equation even without a Dexit ever happening. Challenging the current form of the European Union, taking a harder line on borders and immigration, taking a different stance on Russia and Ukraine, and opposing important parts of European climate policy could turn Germany from a driving force behind European integration to one of the countries that is challenging it from within.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But there is a second dimension. An AfD electoral success would send a message far beyond Germany’s borders. Parties on the European radical right could see Germany as proof that the path from political isolation to power is now possible. And that could accelerate a shift that is already underway in several European countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That is why the Saxony-Anhalt ballot box has acquired much greater significance than that of a regular regional election. On September 6, Germany’s European course will not be decided and certainly no Dexit will be decided. But a political barrier that has stood firm throughout post-war German history could collapse. The entry of the radical and far right into government power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n History has shown, however, that when such a change occurs in Germany, the consequences rarely stop at its borders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Germany is preparing for an election that would have seemed almost unthinkable just a few years ago. 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