The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2026, on Sept. 30, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in its monthly budget review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The deficit \u2013 the difference between government spending and revenue from taxes and other sources \u2013 has never exceeded $1.8 trillion, except during the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new estimate captures the magnitude of the fiscal misstep: the U.S. is on track to borrow more than $2 trillion without being in a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Revenues are rising, but spending is rising more<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Federal revenues are up 3% in 2026 compared to the previous year. While corporate tax revenues have fallen, income and payroll tax collections have increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the revenue increase is not enough. According to the CBO, federal spending has increased by 5%, with the cost of servicing the huge national debt one of the biggest fiscal threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Interest on the national debt has increased by 14% compared to last year. At the same time, increased costs are also being recorded in key areas of the American government, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From $1.9 Trillion to $2.1 Trillion \u2013 Trump\u2019s Tariffs and the Revenue Gap<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The CBO had originally projected this year\u2019s deficit to be $1.9 trillion. The estimate was revised up, largely due to lower-than-expected tariff revenue after the Supreme Court ruled in February to block tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although Trump has since imposed new tariffs, the CBO still estimates that federal revenue will be $250 billion lower than originally projected. To date, about $100 billion has been returned to companies, under an order from the U.S. Court of International Trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe\u2019re Borrowing Nearly $6 Billion a Day\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Maya MacGuineas, chairwoman of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, described the situation in dramatic terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe\u2019ve borrowed a staggering $1.8 trillion this fiscal year, with $431 billion in July alone, which is almost **$6 billion a day,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As she pointed out, the U.S. is on track to exceed $2 trillion in new borrowing this fiscal year, despite the fact that the economy is not in recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis is not normal,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S. debt may become mathematically impossible to repay<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The problem, however, is not limited to this year\u2019s deficit. And this estimate was made before Donald Trump asked Congress for a 19% increase in discretionary spending next year. If approved, it would be the second-largest spending increase in at least 60 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The crisis of accuracy and political inertia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The cost of living crisis is currently the dominant political issue in the United States. Yet, according to the text, neither major political party has made a substantive commitment to reducing government deficits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And therein lies the biggest problem for the American economy. As long as Washington continues to borrow at record rates, while interest on the debt and government spending increase at the same time, the fiscal crisis shows no sign of abating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the contrary, America seems to be heading towards a vicious cycle of debt, deficits, and new borrowing, from which it will become increasingly difficult to escape.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2026, on Sept. 30, according to projections…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30213,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,860],"tags":[8357,655,8356,5215,7975,380,70],"class_list":["post-30212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic","category-fiscal-economics","tag-cbo","tag-donald-trump","tag-federal-budget-deficit","tag-fiscal-measures","tag-national-debt","tag-public-debt","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30212"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30214,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30212\/revisions\/30214"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/30213"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
The University of Pennsylvania recently estimated that, under current policy, it is likely to become mathematically impossible for the United States to pay off its debt by 2048.<\/p>\n\n\n\n