Let there be no doubt: the ceasefire agreement seals the strategic defeat of the US-Israeli alliance in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This war will be remembered as yet another episode in which powerful countries fall into the trap of asymmetric warfare, in which the strongest armies almost always fail to convert tactical gains into strategic victories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US and Israel\u2014especially Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is more familiar with history than US President Trump\u2014should know this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The principles of war, as formulated by Carl von Clausewitz in 1812, make it clear that the destruction of enemy forces should have the ultimate effect on their will to resist. Asymmetric wars defy this rule of \u201cdecisive battle.\u201d And there was no reason to believe that Iran would be an exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A civilization driven by ideological zeal and having endured centuries of wars of survival was never going to surrender easily. A country that sacrificed some 750,000 of its citizens, including thousands of children, in its eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, has always had a huge advantage over enemies that collapse under the emotional weight of a few dozen body bags.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the US and Israel have eliminated much of the Islamic Republic\u2019s political and military leadership and destroyed much of its military capability, the regime has waged a war of attrition against the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As any capable military planner would have predicted, Iran has blocked passage through the vital Strait of Hormuz and ensured that its Houthis allies are ready to close the only alternative, Bab al-Madeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Add to that strategic drone and missile strikes, and Iran has largely managed to offset the military advantage of its enemies. In the process, Iran has also managed to boost its budget: it now earns almost twice as much from oil sales as it did before the war, while also reaping profits from taxes on ships passing through the Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia has also benefited, thanks to the easing of US sanctions on its oil. Meanwhile, the revenues of America’s Gulf allies have collapsed, raising questions about whether they will be able to meet their commitments to invest billions of dollars in the US and their own economic diversification strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n