Even before their talks begin, Vladimir Putin\u2019s meeting with Donald Trump at a U.S. military base in Alaska on Friday advances Russia\u2019s goal of reshaping the global security order as the two men revive the \u201cgreat power\u201d system in which only a few major countries have the final say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin set the stage last week, after meeting with Trump\u2019s envoy, Steve Witkoff, when he ruled out meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky until certain conditions were met that he said remained \u201cfar off.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump agreed and rejected Zelensky\u2019s participation, even as the future of his country \u2013 and its 40 million citizens \u2013 hangs in the balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zelensky had participated in numerous meetings over the past three and a half years since the Russian invasion began, Trump said on Monday, and \u201cnothing happened. I mean, do you want someone who\u2019s been doing this for three and a half years?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alaska summit a \u2018golden opportunity\u2019 for Putin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n A one-on-one summit on American soil was not Putin\u2019s only major victory. It also averted, for now, Trump\u2019s threat of tough economic sanctions on Russian oil and rebuffed the US president\u2019s calls for a ceasefire. On Monday, Trump returned to blaming Zelensky for the war, echoing Putin\u2019s words, although the Republican appeared more conciliatory in a conference call with Zelensky and European leaders on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The prospect of the Alaskan meeting reinforces Putin\u2019s long-term goal of reshaping Russia as one of the few major global powers with legitimate spheres of influence, and fulfills his short-term tactical goal of a one-on-one meeting to win over and manipulate Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A former senior Kremlin official, speaking to the US newspaper on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, described the Alaskan summit as a \u201cgolden opportunity\u201d for Putin, adding: \u201cAnd of course, a visit to the US is a huge victory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another person with close ties to the Kremlin said the summit, which will begin at 11:30 a.m. (10:30 p.m. ET) on Friday in Anchorage, was \u201ca real opportunity to end this\u201d and that the meeting was designed to \u201ccalm down the Russian elites, for whom this war is a shame, and they want everything to go back to normal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n How did Putin get Trump where he wanted?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Former senior Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who resigned over the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, said Putin had offered so little that it was hard to understand why Trump agreed to meet. He added that it appeared to be a Kremlin ploy to distract Trump from sanctions, just as Putin distracted Trump from his call for a ceasefire in May by proposing peace talks in Istanbul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although Trump has recently criticized Putin\u2019s attacks on Ukrainian cities, he has not imposed sanctions or put any other pressure on Russia beyond rhetoric. The US president told reporters on Wednesday that there would be \u201cvery serious\u201d consequences if Putin continued the war after the Alaska meeting, although he has made similar threats in the past without carrying them out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s a bad idea for Trump to host this meeting,\u201d Bondarev said, questioning its purpose and benefit. \u201cInitially he said, \u2018I want to meet with Vladimir and we\u2019ll come to some kind of agreement.\u2019\u201d But then, he added, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the purpose of the meeting was to find out what Putin wants, while \u201cit\u2019s absolutely obvious what the other side wants.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is the outcome of the summit pre-ordained?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has long made it clear that he demands that Ukraine hand over four resource-rich regions and recognize Russia\u2019s 2014 annexation of Crimea. He also wants Ukraine barred from NATO membership and its military reduced to the point where it is virtually useless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rubio said Tuesday that the meeting with Putin \u201cwasn\u2019t a concession\u201d but \u201ca meeting to explore the terrain. A meeting is what you do to understand and make your decision,\u201d he argued, echoing Trump\u2019s view that the chances of success will be clear early on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It should be noted, moreover, that meetings between the presidents of the United States and Russia \u2013 leaders of the countries with the largest nuclear arsenals in the world \u2013 are usually highly organized, the result of intensive negotiations, in which specific \u201coutcomes\u201d are agreed upon in advance and nothing is left to chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How is Trump reinforcing Putin\u2019s narrative?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin\u2019s attacks on Zelensky\u2019s legitimacy as recently as August 1 and his descriptions of Ukraine as a corrupt and artificial state place the Ukrainian at a lower level, worthy of meeting only when he accepts Russia\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPutin would like to present it to Trump as follows: that with you, Donald, we know how things are done, and all these people from Europe and this Zelensky, this ugly young man, should not get involved,\u201d Bondarev said, adding that \u201cthey don\u2019t know what to do. They don\u2019t know what they want. We know what we want, so let\u2019s agree. Maybe Trump will be flattered by that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump, perhaps unwittingly, is reinforcing this narrative. At a press conference on Monday, he appeared to portray two tough men negotiating a deal, dismissing Zelensky\u2019s views and claiming that European leaders \u201crely too much on me. If it weren\u2019t for me, this issue would never be resolved, until the last man dies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump\u2019s Displeasure with Zelensky<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, he expressed strong displeasure with Zelensky, whom he seemed to blame for the fighting: \u201cI get along well with Zelensky, but I disagree with what he\u2019s done \u2014 I disagree very, very strongly. This is a war that should never have happened.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n He also complained about the Ukrainian president, citing the obstacles that Ukraine\u2019s constitution places on changing borders. \u201cHe has the authorization to go to war, to kill everybody, but he needs authorization to do land swaps,\u201d Trump pointed out bitterly. However, he failed to mention that Russia quickly incorporated the regions of Ukraine it invaded and annexed them to its constitution through questionable referendums, in an effort to prevent their return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other hand, he boasts that Putin told him how \u201ctough\u201d he is, with him himself describing Russia as \u201ctough,\u201d and he described Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine as a reflection of Russian character. \u201cThey\u2019re a warring country,\u201d Trump said. \u201cThat\u2019s what they do. They fight a lot.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky, he warned, had to accept \u201csome land swap\u201d that would be \u201cgood for Ukraine,\u201d but also \u201cbad for both sides.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moscow\u2019s Real Goals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Putin has other opportunities in Alaska, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov saying Tuesday that a key goal for Moscow is to \u201cnormalize\u201d relations with the United States, referring to the Kremlin\u2019s desire to end sanctions, restore direct flights and facilitate business deals between the United States and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia also wants to shift blame to Ukraine for Trump\u2019s failure so far to end the war, analysts say, in the hope that the Trump administration will end intelligence support for Ukraine, just as it has slowed down arms deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With Russia\u2019s recent advances on the battlefield, Putin is confident that victory is near, according to Russian analysts, and he is unwilling to compromise, despite Moscow\u2019s huge losses. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the number of Russians killed or wounded will reach 1 million by the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the former senior Kremlin official said Putin no longer cares about the human cost of the war, calling it \u201cthick-skinned.\u201d \u201cHe\u2019s like a turtle,\u201d the former official said, \u201cit doesn\u2019t touch him anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThey\u2019ll either give Ukraine an ultimatum or leave empty-handed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, war fatigue seems to have taken hold on all sides. The official said most people in the Kremlin oppose the war but are afraid to tell the Russian president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cEveryone is afraid of Putin. People don\u2019t want to talk about compromises because everyone has to show they are patriots,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As for the Alaska summit, the former official said he has low expectations: \u201cThey will either have to give Ukraine an ultimatum or they will leave with almost nothing accomplished.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Even before their talks begin, Vladimir Putin\u2019s meeting with Donald Trump at a U.S. military base in Alaska on Friday advances Russia\u2019s goal of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25633,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[836,3,826],"tags":[655,58,1156,70,1166],"class_list":["post-25632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","category-usa-geopolitical","tag-donald-trump","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25632"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25632\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25634,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25632\/revisions\/25634"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/25633"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}