{"id":22927,"date":"2025-02-20T20:53:57","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T18:53:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=22927"},"modified":"2025-02-20T20:53:57","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T18:53:57","slug":"russia-peace-only-if-ukraine-leaves-100-of-the-western-sphere-of-influence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=22927","title":{"rendered":"Russia: Peace only if Ukraine leaves 100% of the Western sphere of influence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The negotiations between Russia and the US in Riyadh, according to the Russian side, went well &#8211; and &#8220;this is a success&#8221;: the parties listened to each other. Towards the end of February, there may also be a meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump, which is obviously a great development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In today&#8217;s era, after three years without dialogue, this is already a significant breakthrough &#8211; that&#8217;s why one of the participants in the negotiations from the American side, Steve Witkoff (who visited Moscow a week ago), said that &#8220;we could not imagine a better result for such negotiations&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The two Foreign Ministers Lavrov of Russia and Rubio of the US and the two presidential aides discussed not only Ukraine, but the entire spectrum of bilateral relations, and therefore global problems (because a significant part of them depends on the relations of the two countries).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, Ukraine is the key to resuming full relations (including economic ones), but ending the Ukrainian conflict cannot be achieved by waving a magic wand, especially since no one has a magic wand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>There is a willingness to find solutions Russia and the US<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is clear that both sides want to reach at least preliminary agreements on issues that are important to each of them from the start of the summit, but in this case both sides will have to wait quite a while. The differences on Ukraine are huge \u2013 personal negotiations between the two presidents are needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both Trump and Putin know that when they meet many issues should be settled but we are not there yet. The initiation of a dialogue is very good, but then it will be necessary to recognize not only the realities on the ground (Trump has already done so), but also Russia&#8217;s fundamental interests in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The British poison<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSuch tactics may seem correct, but they also have obvious drawbacks. They are connected with attempts to disrupt the meeting between Trump and Putin or at least complicate the situation in which the two leaders will meet as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although without American approval, support and security guarantees this is basically impossible, this issue will be increasingly promoted in Europe. The British Prime Minister\u2019s statement about his readiness to participate in such a mission has already led to a showdown in Europe &#8211; the majority is against, but there are also those who want to escalate a dead issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why a dead issue?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After all, although the United States has already clearly explained that it will not send peacekeepers, it is unofficially asking the Europeans about their readiness to send troops to Ukraine. Does it turn out that America simply wants to control Ukraine through the hands of the Europeans?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, but such a desire is incompatible with efforts to reach an agreement with Russia to end the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"168\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-159.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22928\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Russia is completely against any foreign military presence in Ukraine \u2013 It will be a legitimate target<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia will never agree to the entry of a Western peacekeeping force into Ukraine \u2013 neither in the amount of 150,000 (as Zelensky demands), nor in the amount of 30,000 (as the Europeans are discussing). And without Russia\u2019s consent, the peacekeeping forces \u2013 even if they are not on the line of contact, but in the rear of the Ukrainian troops \u2013 turn into a foreign expeditionary force, an army that helps Russia\u2019s enemy fight Russia. They become a legitimate target \u2013 just like the countries that sent them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Europe will not send troops to Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The European Union understands this very well and, therefore, will never send anyone to Ukraine. However, they are cunningly raising the issue to show Trump their readiness to take responsibility for Ukraine and to convince him to defend the need to send peacekeepers to Ukraine. That is, simply to destroy the planned summit between Putin and Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The European bluff is read<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another thing is that the European bluff is easily read not only by Putin, but also by Trump &#8211; and the American president may well use the issue of \u201cthe readiness of European peacekeepers\u201d simply to negotiate with the Russian president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Russia to finally retreat then, agreeing with peacekeeping forces from other, non-European countries \u2013 after all, the main goal is to keep Ukraine in the Western orbit, and for this, European troops are not at all the main issue: a whole network of bilateral defense and economic agreements with NATO countries (already concluded by Kiev) will be enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ukraine must leave 100% from the Western sphere of influence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But this is precisely what is unacceptable for Russia: the neutral status of Ukraine implies its withdrawal from the sphere of dominant Western influence. Without Trump\u2019s consent to this, serious long-term agreements are not possible \u2013 and this will be discussed at the meeting of the two presidents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Russia went from being insignificant to a major market in 24 hours<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The negotiations between high-level Russian and US delegations in Riyadh have caused delirium in Western business circles, which are buckling under the weight of the worst economic crisis in recent history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just a few months ago, the West considered the Russian market insignificant, but it has suddenly become \u201ca space for a mutually beneficial global order of cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lowering energy costs with Russia will help Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It got to the point that the Economist magazine seriously shared the internal European kitchen, where \u201csome European officials are eyeing Russian gas greedily\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201cLower electricity bills could revive European industry and calm households.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs analysts, who immediately changed strategy, state that the end of the Ukrainian conflict will lead to an increase of 0.5% in EU GDP, thanks to cheap energy resources from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In turn, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, said in an interview with the New York Times that \u201cAmerican oil companies will want to return to the Russian Federation in the future to have access to its natural resources,\u201d because American operations in Russia were previously \u201cvery successful,\u201d so American companies will not want to give up the opportunities that Russia previously provided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Visa and Mastercard to Return to Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even such powerful and principled companies as Visa and Mastercard are already \u201cconsidering\u201d a return to Russia by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Wall Street Journal recently admitted that \u201cthe Russian market was a significant source of revenue for many brands before the conflict, and its complete neglect has economic consequences, so hello again!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are not at all surprised by the ability of Western businesses to engage in unprincipled political mimicry, there are no comments here at all, and there is only one question:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Have you asked Russia, good gentlemen?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For decades before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western businesses were accustomed to perceiving Russia as a nice, well-equipped shopping mall with clean toilets, where you are not asked or required to do anything if you pay the minimum rent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sometimes such position escapes the Russian side: recently there was information that a certain business association of shopping centers on its own initiative addressed Inditex (which owns, in particular, the Zara, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Pull &amp; Bear brands), as well as Uniqlo and H&amp;M with a petition, where it notes that it would like to provide sets of commercial companies, because the shopping center does not represent the current brands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>About 350 Western brands want to return to Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is information that up to 350 brands that left Russia in 2022 are already ready to generously return to the domestic market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reality is that there will be no automatic restoration of the status quo with an apology: foreign companies that left Russia for political reasons should not, cannot and will not return under the previous conditions. In particular, the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the possible return of Western brands to Russia is \u201cnormal practice\u201d, but it should be done on a competitive basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Western companies \u201cwill be able to return to Russia and continue to compete with Russian producers here\u201d: This is a completely normal global trade practice. And such competition would be in the interests of consumers, that is, you and me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, the return of foreign brands should be accompanied by serious legal and financial obligations to the state and consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Legal and financial obligations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There will be no differential treatment with the most favored nation &#8211; everyone in line for filtering. All foreign businesses in Russia &#8211; only through joint ventures with a share of at least 51% owned by Russian co-owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conditions for conducting business: guarantee of full transfer of technology and localization of production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mandatory investments in infrastructure (logistics hubs, ports, telecommunications, etc.)\u2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strict adherence to maximum local employment (for example, in the UAE, 80% of jobs in joint ventures are occupied by citizens of the country).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prohibitive duties on the import of finished products into Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is nothing bad about foreign investment in itself for Russia: according to information from the Ministry of Economic Development, every billion dollars of direct investment creates 15-20,000 jobs in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, increased internal competition between foreign entrepreneurs will also benefit Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to some data, China occupies more than 50% of the Russian car market, which obviously gives it the opportunity to dictate its terms. But in any case, before any calculations, interest rates and contracts, each \u201creturn to Russia\u201d should undergo strict filtering. Did they offend Russia and Russians?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Did they give money to the Ukrainian Armed Forces or for weapons that were used to kill Russians? Then these companies will probably forget about the words \u201cRussian Market\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The negotiations between Russia and the US in Riyadh, according to the Russian side, went well &#8211; and &#8220;this is a success&#8221;: the parties&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[825,3],"tags":[25,58,1156,70,1976,3395],"class_list":["post-22927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","tag-eu","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-usa","tag-war","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22927"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22930,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22927\/revisions\/22930"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22929"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}