Since early January, an average of about 150 clashes have been reported daily in the Russia-Ukraine war. The frequency of these clashes varies significantly in different sectors of the front, often indicating where the situation is most critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Towns such as Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk and Velyka Novosilka are increasingly mentioned in the news, accompanied by the warning \u201cthe situation is difficult\u201d. Many of these towns still have a civilian population. After talking to frontline soldiers, Ukrainska Pravda highlights the most difficult areas and the dangers and threats arising from the ongoing events in these areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Pokrovsk Front<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Status: Critical.<\/em> The Ukrainian army is losing settlements on this front every day and has been unable to stabilize the front for a year since its withdrawal from Avdiivka. Currently, Russian forces have decided not to attack Pokrovsk directly, but to bypass it from the south and cut off Ukrainian logistics. As of January 19, the Russians are only 3 km from Pokrovsk and 5 km from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The number of routes leading to Pokrovsk is steadily decreasing. Recently, Russian forces completely cut off the Mezhova-Pokrovsk road, having destroyed many Ukrainian vehicles along it. In recent days, they have also advanced north of this route, partially entering Kotlyne and Udachne \u2013 the last villages before the administrative border with Dnipropetrovsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Threats:<\/em> Challenges facing the Ukrainian defense forces on this front:<\/em> Situation data: <\/em>Unfortunately, chaos has been prevailing for almost a year in the command of troops and units at various levels on the Pokrovsk front. The \u201cold\u201d brigades are exhausted and do not receive the reinforcement they need, while the \u201cnew\u201d brigades, lacking experience, are rapidly losing personnel and equipment or suffering from a high desertion rate, resulting in the loss of positions and defensive lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Velyka Novosilka (Nova Pavlivka Front)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Situation: <\/em>The situation is approaching a critical point. Russian forces, with two vehicle columns, launched an attack on Velyka Novosilka on January 18. Unfortunately, several units managed to infiltrate and enter the village. The timing of the attack was perfectly calculated, as it occurred during two hours of fog, snow and rain \u2013 conditions that made drones ineffective due to zero visibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Just a few days earlier, the Russians had also captured the village of Vremivka, which was a key part of the logistical route from the west to Velyka Novosilka \u2013 Zelene Pole to Vremivka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Threats:<\/em> The risk of Ukrainian forces being surrounded in Velyka Novosilka. The distance between the Russian flanks closing on the Ukrainian forces is less than 3 kilometers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Challenges facing the Ukrainian defense forces on this front:<\/em> Situational information:<\/em> Velyka Novosilka is a geographically and topographically difficult location for defense. It is a lowland area divided into three parts by the Mokri Yaly River. All crossings have been destroyed. The Russians are constantly shelling the city with guided bombs and Solntsepyok and Grad multiple launch rocket systems. Access to Velyka Novosilka by vehicle has been impossible for several weeks. The logistics are extremely complicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. Toretsk Front<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Situation:<\/em> difficult, Ukrainian defense forces control about 30% of Toretsk, fierce fighting in the urban fabric is ongoing. The current task of Ukrainian units is to detect and destroy Russian infantry penetrating between buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Threats:<\/em> In this context, four heights on the western outskirts of the city, each about 200 m high, are of particular importance. The capture of these peaks and the high ground would allow the Russians to target the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road, Kostiantynivka itself, and other locations. Fortunately, these areas are currently under Ukrainian control. (map 4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0392. Toretsk is a large city with pre-existing fortifications in buildings and basements. A retreat from Toretsk would force the Ukrainian defenders to hold the line in open fields and forest strips, which is much more difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n C. and most crucial, the capture of Toretsk would open the way for a Russian advance on Kostiantynivka from the south. This would mark the beginning of fighting for the large and strategically crucial settlement of Kramatorsk, which is densely populated with civilians (over 100,000 people still live there). The Russians are now about 15 kilometers from Kostiantynivka and have been shelling it with artillery for several months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Challenges facing the Ukrainian defense forces on this front:<\/em> \u201cThe main challenges for artillery units are the quantity and quality of weapons.\u201d \u201cThe quantity has definitely increased. The quality varies. There are different batches and manufacturers. Some produce ammunition without defects and their cartridges fly as they should \u2013 and these are not necessarily imported ones. But there are others that are returned before they are even used. They decided not to accept such equipment at the battalion level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Situational factors:<\/em> To destroy buildings where Ukrainian soldiers are stationed, the Russians often carry TM-62 anti-tank mines in their hands and throw them into the basements and ground floors of buildings. This causes more damage than, say, artillery strikes. The Russians used a similar tactic in Kurakhove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Carrying a TM-62 mine is extremely dangerous due to the risk of accidental detonation, so the Russians usually assign this task to ex-convicts, Mozok explains. Ukrainian soldiers refer to this Russian tactic as \u201ckamikaze,\u201d a kamikaze being a person, not a drone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under cover of fire, soldiers approach a building in an armored vehicle, throw anti-tank mines at the Russians, retreat and detonate the mines from a distance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4. Chasiv Yar (Kramatorsk front)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Situation:<\/em> difficult. Ukrainian defense forces control about 30% of Chasiv Yar, and an additional 20% of the city is in the gray zone. Unfortunately, in mid-January, Ukrainian troops had to withdraw from the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar, which was a large and reliable stronghold. Fighting is now taking place in the residential areas destroyed by artillery. (map 5)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Threats:<\/em> Challenges facing Ukrainian defense forces on this front:<\/em> Situational information: <\/em>One of the Russian hideouts on the front, between Chasiv Yar and Kalynivka, are the huge pipes of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. These pipes are over 2 meters in diameter, allowing the Russians to move through them undetected at full height and to accumulate forces there for attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Russians used a similar tactic a year ago at the height of the fighting for Avdiivka. They secretly penetrated the rear of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of the city through a main water pipeline that supplied the Donetsk filtration station. In fact, this is how they managed to enter Avdiivka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5. Kupiansk Front<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Situation: <\/em>difficult. Russian troops are 2-3 kilometers from Kupiansk. For a long time, the Ukrainian defense forces managed to limit Russian attempts to cross the Oskil River. However, the Russian army is now entrenched on the right bank of the river, north of Kupiansk, in the Dvorichna-Zapadne-Masiutivka area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n South of Kupiansk Vuzlovyi (a village next to Kupiansk), the Russians have reached the Oskil River near Kruhliakivka-Zahryzove and are trying to extend their bridgehead near the river from the left bank. (map 6)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The challenges facing the Ukrainian defense forces on this front:<\/em> Situational factors:<\/em> The Oskil River makes it difficult for the Russians to apply their usual tried and tested tactics and to bypass and encircle Kupiansk. However, the Russian success north of the city in the Dvorichna-Zapadne-Masiutivka area has allowed them to focus on cutting off the supply of Kupiansk and Kupiansk Vuzlovyi from both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n North of Kupiansk, the Russian army will likely attempt to move along the right bank of the Oskil River and along the road connecting the city with Dvorichna. From the south, the Russians will seek to expand their presence along the left bank of the Oskil River to try to eliminate the bridgehead of Ukrainian forces in the Kupiansk Vuzlovyi area and the left part of Kupiansk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Threats:<\/em> If the Russians continue their advance from Dvorichna, they could eventually penetrate the Kintrashivka-Tichenivka area, northwest of Kupiansk. There is a road junction to Kupiansk from Velykyi Burluk, which would further complicate the logistics of the city for Ukrainian troops. <\/p>\n\n\n\n 6. Lyman Front<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Situation:<\/em> difficult. In early January, Russian troops managed to break through the western bank of the Zherebets River near the village of Ivanivka. The most tense situation on the Lyman Front is in the Ivanivka \u2013 Terny \u2013 Yampolivka \u2013 Torsk area. The Russian army is actively seeking to expand its presence in this area. At present, the Russians are conducting more frequent attacks towards the village of Kolodiazi, located on the right bank of the Zherebets River, next to Ivanivka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Challenges facing the Ukrainian defense forces on this front:<\/em> However, the Russian army significantly outnumbers the Ukrainian defense forces on this front. Situational factors: as on the Kupiansk front, the Russians are hampered by water obstacles \u2013 in this case the Zherebets River. Lyman is a very important area, as it is the gateway to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk settlement from the northeast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Threats:<\/em> A. and foremost, as mentioned, the possible Russian advance on Sloviansk from the northeast, coming from the Lyman-Raihorodok direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u0392. if the Russians move south along the Zherebets River, this could threaten the rear of the Ukrainian units fighting on the Siversk front. The Ukrainian units holding the line at Siversk, Bilohorivka and Serebrianka may be in danger. (map 9)<\/p>\n\n\n\n At present, the Russians do not have sufficient forces to reach Sloviansk. However, the risk of intensified attacks should not be underestimated. Of course, the war is not limited to the fronts described in this article.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Since early January, an average of about 150 clashes have been reported daily in the Russia-Ukraine war. The frequency of these clashes varies significantly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2362,7,3830],"tags":[58,1156,1976,3395],"class_list":["post-22448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-military-science","category-research","category-war-in-ukraine","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-war","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22448"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22448\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27666,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22448\/revisions\/27666"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27573"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
-risk of encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
-rapid Russian advance towards the E50 Dnipro-Donetsk highway.
-increasing Russian proximity to Dnipropetrovsk, increasing the threat of the war spreading to a sixth region of Ukraine (map 2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-lack of effective command at the brigade level, within the Donetsk Joint Task Force and the Khortytsia Strategic Operational Group.
-Resources, including equipment, weapons and personnel, are not allocated effectively.
-Lack of infantry, mainly due to the high desertion rate.
-The level of training of the infantry is insufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-a severe shortage of infantry, especially in the 110th Brigade, which is the key on this front. The brigade -has received only 20 people since the start of the offensive on Velyka Novosilka.
-false reports from unit commanders to the operational and tactical groups, which often lead to -violations of the line of contact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0391. the risk of losing full control of Toretsk, which is located on high ground and therefore an ideal position for artillery and a critical position for conducting radio and electronic reconnaissance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-lack of infantry
-low-quality ammunition. Unfortunately, the problem of low-quality ammunition remains on the Toretsk front, especially with 120-mm mortar shells, according to Mozok (Brain), commander of the mortar unit in the 21st Special Purpose Battalion of the Autonomous Presidential Brigade. The unit has been operating in the city since November 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-risk of losing the rest of Chasiv Yar, an important area of \u200b\u200bhigh ground and a large city with reliable fortifications.
-retreat from Chasiv Yar would open another route for the Russians to advance on Kostiantynivka from the east.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-severe shortage of infantry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
-Earlier this year, the Russian Federation deployed additional reserves to the Kupiansk Front.
attacks with armored vehicles have become more frequent.
-In their attacks, the Russians generally use up to several dozen heavy equipment under the cover of artillery and machine guns. They operate according to a standard protocol: first, they try to remove the minefields, and then the vehicles transport the assault units. After arriving, the Russian infantry attempts to break the Ukrainian battle formations and drive the Ukrainian soldiers from their positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of last year, the Russians resorted mainly to attacks by small infantry groups on the Lyman Front. This is clearly due to the lack of armored vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the Russians continue to move towards Lyman, this could create many problems for the Ukrainian defense forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n