{"id":21744,"date":"2024-12-13T00:05:49","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T22:05:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=21744"},"modified":"2024-12-13T00:05:49","modified_gmt":"2024-12-12T22:05:49","slug":"the-shape-of-the-kurdish-state-after-the-collapse-of-assad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=21744","title":{"rendered":"The shape of the Kurdish state after the collapse of Assad"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Fighting in Syria continues between Assad&#8217;s army and pro-Turkish jihadists, who are now advancing south with the aim of capturing Beirut and toppling the Assad regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Assad regime collapses &#8211; Iranian forces leave Syria<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The situation seems irreversible for Assad&#8217;s fall, after the jihadists captured Idlib, Aleppo, Tel Rifat, Hama, while Homs is also under siege. Meanwhile, Bashar Assad&#8217;s inner circle is reported to have fled Syria to Russia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran is also a big loser, seeing years of struggle and the vast sums of money it poured into controlling Syria evaporate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran is reportedly withdrawing many of its forces, commanders, advisors and party officials from Syria, as Tehran now realizes that it is all an uphill battle after essentially &#8220;wasting&#8221; a cumulative $160 billion over five decades to control the Sunni-majority country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Turkish, Russian, Iranian Foreign Ministers Meet in Doha to Discuss Syria<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The meeting took place on Saturday, December 7. Moscow and Tehran have offered military support to help President Bashar al-Assad crush the opposition, while the Turkish president recently called on Assad to \u201creconcile with his people,\u201d saying he \u201chopes that the opposition\u2019s advance will continue without incident,\u201d identifying their target as Damascus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey and Russia could seek to promote a transitional government without Assad but with some elements of his regime and the opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iran, for its part, is irritated by the lack of support shown by Assad after the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, whose forces had rushed to Assad&#8217;s aid during the civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The US-Israeli stance will determine the developments towards the creation of a Kurdish state<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the Syrian Kurds are also in the equation, with their YPG forces enjoying US-Israeli support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question that now looms is whether the current situation in Syria is the trigger for the US-Israeli launch of developments towards the creation of a Kurdish state?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For this to happen, the Kurdish state, which geographically will include territories of Northern Iraq and NE Syria, must be secured with the military assistance of the US primarily and secondarily of Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this state will neither have access to the sea, nor will it share borders with Israel, conditions important for its survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A prerequisite for the latter to happen will be the weakening of the pro-Turkish jihadist rebels with US airstrikes &#8211; US strategic bombers are already patrolling Syria &#8211; but also the creation of territorial continuity between Israel and Kurdish territories in Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To do this, Israel must first create a buffer zone extending south of Damascus along southern Syria, with the simultaneous movement of Kurdish YPG forces further south from their existing positions with US air protection, in order to create territorial continuity with Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The implications of developments in Syria for Greece-Cyprus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Greece and Cyprus will be the big losers from developments in Syria and the possible fall of the Assad regime, since we expect a new wave of migration to emerge as a consequence of the developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, beyond this, there will be a highly pro-Turkish regime in Syria after the war, which in cooperation with Turkey will attempt to impose a fait accompli on Lebanon and the SE Mediterranean, not excluding the latter&#8217;s recognition of the pseudo-state of the TRNC in the occupied areas of Cyprus, as well as the delimitation of an EEZ with Turkey along the lines of the &#8220;Blue Homeland&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, Erdogan&#8217;s satelliteization of Syria will result in the creation of a protectorate state, which will constitute an additional danger to Hellenism, creating, through Turkish military bases that will be established in it, encircling Greece from the south, along with those in Libya.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fighting in Syria continues between Assad&#8217;s army and pro-Turkish jihadists, who are now advancing south with the aim of capturing Beirut and toppling the&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,834],"tags":[1083,153,3388,88,4748,143,70],"class_list":["post-21744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitical","category-middle-east-geopolitical","tag-bashar-al-assad","tag-israel","tag-kurdistan","tag-syria","tag-syria-kurds","tag-turkey","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21744"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21746,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21744\/revisions\/21746"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/21745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}