The civil war in Sudan has been raging for over a year and a half, with no end in sight. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to the world\u2019s worst displacement crisis and \u201ca hunger crisis of historic proportions,\u201d according to three international non-governmental organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the dynamics on the ground have changed dramatically since late September, when, after more than a year of military rule, the RSF faced its greatest challenge yet, with the SAF advancing on Khartoum and the \u201cJoint Darfur Forces\u201d (a coalition of armed groups from Darfur), allied with the SAF, opening multiple fronts against the RSF in the region. In addition, the SAF regained control of the strategically important Jebel Moya region, which connects three Sudanese states: Sennar, White Nile, and Gezira. The region is crucial for controlling access and supply lines to these areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The RSF also faced increasing isolation off the battlefield. The U.S. Treasury Department\u2019s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Algoney Dagalo, the RSF\u2019s chief procurement officer and younger brother of RSF leader Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo (also known as \u201cHemedti\u201d), for \u201cleading arms procurement efforts\u201d for the paramilitary group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adding to its military challenges, the RSF suffered a huge blow with the defection of Abu Aqla Kikal, a senior commander and the face of the RSF in central Sudan, who surrendered with his forces to the army in early October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to a former member of Hemedti\u2019s advisory group, who asked to remain anonymous, this is the beginning of a trend that will likely continue, as the RSF is inevitably displaced from Central Sudan and weakened throughout the country. \u201cThe RSF never succeeded in its original plan to crush the SAF. Now that it is losing territory, especially in Central Sudan, there will be more defections by RSF soldiers and commanders to save themselves,\u201d writes the New Arab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Kikal defection has unleashed waves of ethnically motivated uprisings by RSF forces in eastern Gezira, an area home to the Shukriya tribe of Kikal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The attacks have resulted in the deaths of more than 1,200 civilians and the displacement of more than 130,000 people, raising concerns that Sudan may be heading towards a conflict that could further entangle civilians along tribal lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bakry Eljak Elmedni, a spokesman for \u201cTaqaddum,\u201d a coalition of politicians and political groups opposed to the war, recently warned that the conflict in Sudan risks turning into a \u201cfull-scale civil war.\u201d He also warned that in areas controlled by the SAF, \u201cmobilization and recruitment are taking place on an ethnic and tribal basis.\u201d These concerns stem from recent statements by the Shukriya tribal chief, Ahmed Abu Sin, who called on tribal members to mobilize and side with the SAF \u201cto repel the violent onslaught\u201d of the RSF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This comes on top of the SAF\u2019s training and mobilization of several tribes in eastern Sudan, including the Hadendawa, Bani Amer, and Rashaida, who have shown a willingness to take up arms to defend their communities from potential RSF incursions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the war in Sudan has reignited intercommunal tensions in Darfur and created new tribal frictions elsewhere, according to Muammar Ibrahim, a journalist who spoke to The New Arab from El-Fasher in North Darfur, Sudanese people have never been more united against a common enemy. \u201cSudanese people in all parts of Sudan are united in their opposition to the Rapid Support Forces,\u201d Ibrahim said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He also believes the RSF is in its final decline because morale is higher in the ranks of the SAF and the Joint Darfur Forces, which support the army. \u201cThe Rapid Support Forces are in a state of weakness and collapse, especially in Darfur. Their sources of arms are now in the hands of the Joint Forces and they cannot carry the weapons they used to freely carry,\u201d Ibrahim added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the RSF appears to be weakening, retaliatory attacks and widespread sexual violence in Gezira and other areas under its control continue unabated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This has fueled international calls for a civilian protection force, but UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently said that \u201cthe conditions for the successful deployment of a UN force to protect civilians in Sudan do not exist.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Guterres\u2019s determination was not surprising, given that the SAF has already made it clear that it would consider any international force deployed as enemy combatants and would consider such a move a blatant violation of Sudanese sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the SAF has presented itself as the most ethical side in the war, it has also come under widespread criticism from civilians who have pointed out its shortcomings in protecting civilians and its reckless targeting of civilians through indiscriminate airstrikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a post on X, SAF chief Abdel Fattah Al Burhan wrote that \u201cthe more the Dagalo family\u2019s terrorist militia sheds the blood of innocent civilians, the more the Sudanese people are determined to resist them.\u201d The post came days after Kikal, the RSF commander who defected to the army, was granted a \u201cno questions asked\u201d amnesty. The amnesty absolved him and his forces of atrocities committed since the RSF first entered Gezira state in December 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The statement sparked public outrage, with many users reporting that they were blocked from Burhan\u2019s account after expressing concerns in the comments, most notably that the SAF had done nothing to intervene and protect civilians in the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to a retired SAF colonel, who preferred to remain anonymous, \u201cprotecting civilians is difficult for the military under the current circumstances. Especially since the RSF is attacking civilians in areas under its control and in areas far from the front lines. \u201cThe military presence in Gezira has always been sparse because historically it is a safe and peaceful agricultural area that has never needed a significant military presence,\u201d he told New Arab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cSending reinforcements to these areas is not easy for the military because the logistical infrastructure of such an operation could distract them from other operations, and fighting between army units and the Rapid Support Forces in these areas could cause even more casualties among civilians,\u201d the source added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For many, including Antonio Guterres, the best solution is to end the war. In his remarks to the Security Council, he urged that \u201cdiplomatic efforts must be intensified to definitively end the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This has also become difficult, as prospects for peace have diminished since Hemedti\u2019s speech on October 9, following the RSF\u2019s loss of Jebel Moya, in which he leveled accusations against Egypt, claiming that its warplanes were directly involved in striking RSF positions and helping the SAF take control of the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the RSF has yet to provide evidence to support its claim, Hemedti has for now alienated Egypt from the peace process and has made it clear that it will stop participating in any negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Egypt, a key observer in both the secret Manama talks and the US-led negotiations in Geneva, has been trying to stop the bleeding in Sudan and mediate between the SAF and the RSF since the outbreak of the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since Hemedti\u2019s accusations, however, Egypt\u2019s hostility towards the paramilitary leader has become clear, with official statements from the Egyptian Foreign Ministry now openly referring to his forces as \u201cmilitia.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The SAF, which has been largely unresponsive to peace talks throughout most of the conflict and particularly in recent months, has made its participation in the talks conditional on the exclusion of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the negotiations, even as an observer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The SAF\u2019s claims were supported by a report by a UN panel of experts, which found the UAE\u2019s support for the RSF to be \u201ccredible.\u201d Furthermore, a US State Department-funded group known as the Sudan Conflict Observatory found with \u201calmost certainty\u201d that the UAE was involved in arms transfers to the RSF throughout most of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Biden administration undermined its own peace efforts (!) in Sudan, not only by including the UAE in the latest round of talks in Geneva, but also by presenting the Gulf state as a bona fide humanitarian actor in the conflict, despite ample evidence to the contrary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The UAE was included in the ALPS (Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan) group, which also included Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Egypt, the African Union and the United Nations, after talks focused on ensuring humanitarian access following the SAF boycott and its failure to mediate talks between the warring parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the Oval Office is even less likely to signal a change in strategy towards Sudan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sudan\u2019s newly appointed Foreign Minister, Ali Youssef, expressed optimism about working with the incoming Trump administration to resolve the crisis, urging it to \u201cput pressure on the parties that are contributing to fueling the fire in Sudan to stop.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, since his first term, Trump has maintained strong ties to the UAE and other Gulf states through business dealings conducted by his personal company, the Trump Organization, as well as investments managed by his son-in-law and former adviser, Jared Kushner, through the private equity firm Affinity Partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Affinity Partners has reportedly received significant investment from a sovereign wealth fund in the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump has also pledged to make the Abraham Accords an \u201cabsolute priority,\u201d meaning that the UAE, which has played a critical role in promoting normalization with Israel in the Arab world, will remain at the center of his regional foreign policy during his second term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, it seems unlikely that the new Trump administration will provide the diplomatic boost needed to end the war in Sudan. Instead, the conflict looks set to continue and enter a new and potentially more violent phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The world will be shocked by yet another large-scale African massacre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The civil war in Sudan has been raging for over a year and a half, with no end in sight. The conflict between the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[835,3],"tags":[1133,1486,6222,1016],"class_list":["post-21495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-africa-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","tag-africa","tag-civil-war","tag-hunger-crisis","tag-sudan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21495"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21497,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21495\/revisions\/21497"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}