Within 72 hours, Ukraine has received approval – informal or official, it matters little for the results produced in the fields – from the US and Great Britain for the use of advanced weapons systems on Russian territory. In fact, such is Ukraine’s alignment with London and Washington that, just a few hours after the “approvals”, Kiev has attacked with American ATACMS and British Storm Shadows against Russian targets, especially in the Kursk region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kiev’s moves show what analysts and political leadership have clearly said, that Ukraine is essentially forced to go on the offensive. There is no other way for Zelensky today than to strike with all available means the positions of the Russian army, as well as Russia’s supply infrastructure, before they reach the point of threatening critical territories and forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kursk and the 1,200 square kilometers that the Ukrainians have been under their control since last August are the only substantial bargaining chip, in case Donald Trump decides to bring or “drag” the two parties to the negotiating table. For at least two months now, Kiev’s forces have stopped offensive movements in the southwestern province of Russia, and on the other hand, the Kremlin has sent reinforcements from North Korea to this specific point, with the sole aim of immediately expelling the Ukrainian forces by any means necessary. The Kremlin’s move to cooperate with North Korea partly shows the “urgency” of the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vladimir Putin does not want the Kursk issue to be in the spotlight and for a narrative to be established on this small strip of land, which would endanger a large percentage of the Ukrainian territory that his army currently controls. For Russia, the Donbass valley and the key port of Mariupol are not up for negotiation and it does not want anything to change this condition in the slightest, regardless of what the US and Europe do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, by striking Russian targets with British, American and, in a few days, French weapons, Kiev is clear that it has made another difficult but necessary decision: \u201cIt will preserve the occupied territories within Russia at all costs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine and Zelensky have found themselves at this point again, as every defender against a force greater than itself has over time. The results last time had a devastating impact on Ukraine. Zelensky\u2019s insistence that his most capable forces not retreat from Bakhmut, despite the hordes of Wagner forces that attacked 24 hours a day until the Ukrainian resistance was crushed, effectively deprived the country and its army of the most dynamic and experienced military personnel it had. In a second year, they brought about the rift between the Ukrainian president and the army chief of staff and ultimately the latter\u2019s dismissal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The extremely popular Zaluzny, the man who gave Ukraine\u2019s defense flesh and blood and pushed the Russians both from Kiev in the early days of the war and later from Kherson, left and was replaced by the experienced Shirsky, but Kiev was left without experience in the field. The Donbass Valley is under Russian control for the most part, and despite the Ukrainian mobilization and training of new members in the armed forces, the momentum in these areas is unlikely to change\u2026 In fact, the Russians have been advancing at about a mile a day for the last six months, a speed many times that at which their forces have been moving for two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The \u201csuffering\u201d seems to have become a \u201clesson\u201d for Kiev and the choice of strategy today is beyond necessary and crucial. If in the next two months the Ukrainian forces manage to hold the territory in Kursk and do not retreat from their last defenses in the east, then the diplomatic \u201cbras de fer\u201d that will appear almost \u201cautomatically\u201d when Donald Trump takes office as the 47th president will not be simple and, most importantly, will have \u201cleverages\u201d and claims from both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The crucial period for developments is what follows and the results must, as the situation has developed, pass through the arms again. Given the Ukrainian attacks, Russia will respond in the same way. An alarm in six different provinces of Ukraine has been sounding, at the same time, for quite some time and this shows that the escalation is here\u2026
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