{"id":21474,"date":"2024-11-21T19:53:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T17:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=21474"},"modified":"2024-11-21T19:53:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T17:53:21","slug":"atacms-scalp-eg-storm-shadow-against-russia-strategic-opportunity-and-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=21474","title":{"rendered":"ATACMS, SCALP EG, Storm Shadow against Russia, strategic opportunity and risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In a military reversal of the war in Ukraine, the United States, followed by France and Britain, have authorized Ukraine to use advanced long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russian territory. This decision, which includes ATACMS missiles from the United States, as well as SCALP EG and Storm Shadow missiles from France and Britain respectively, is a turning point in the war, opening up new avenues for Ukrainian military operations and signaling a long-overdue attempt to change the dynamics in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ATACMS, launched from MLRS & HIMARS systems, offer a range of up to 300 kilometers, allowing Ukraine to strike targets well beyond the front line. They could therefore threaten strategic Russian installations such as airfields, command centers and bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the SCALP EG and Storm Shadow missiles, with their very low-altitude flight capability and high-precision strike range of up to 500 kilometers (if these strike ranges are released), are designed to penetrate walls or ceilings several meters thick in fortified installations, and to strike targets such as ammunition depots and fortified command and control points, or selectively single high-value targets such as warships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The threat of long-range missiles will force Russia to redeploy its forces, possibly moving critical infrastructure deeper into its territory or even strengthening its defense capabilities along the entire front line. This may create opportunities for Ukraine to exploit gaps or difficulties in effectively managing Russian forces. We must not forget that Ukraine has access to data from Western spy satellites, so it can effectively target and almost in real time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The psychological impact should not be underestimated either. Such a Ukrainian action would hurt Russian propaganda about security within the country, while at the same time boosting the morale of Ukrainians (military and civilians). We must not forget that Ukrainians wake up almost every day to the sirens of civil defense, with continuous Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The above, of course, also depends on two elements that have not yet been made known:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A.<\/strong> What is the stockpile of such weapons that Ukraine has and whether it will be significantly strengthened in the coming days. This also includes serious issues of willingness of the USA, France and Britain to “dip” their hand deeply into their own war stocks in order to give Ukraine abundant such means of attack. Otherwise, if Kiev’s stockpile is a few dozen weapons, then the impressiveness of any strikes will probably not be balanced by their effectiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B.<\/strong> The restrictions that will be placed on use. It is reported that the ATACMS are intended only for strikes in the Russian region of Kursk, where a Ukrainian invasion has been taking place for months. In fact, as a countermeasure to the North Korean troops that have reinforced the Russian forces there. If this is true, and more generally if Western authorization is needed for every “deep strike”, then again we must consider what exactly an attack option that will be exercised after “political negotiation” will offer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the use of long-range missiles within Russian territory could escalate the conflict, increasing the risk of a wider conflict or retaliation from Russia, which once again, through Putin\u2019s words, \u201creminded\u201d of its nuclear power. And let\u2019s not forget the capabilities of Russian anti-aircraft systems, such as the S-400 missiles, which could limit the effectiveness of Ukrainian missile attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We take it for granted that the licensing of ATACMS, SCALP EG and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine by the US, France and Britain is an important step for Ukraine. It offers new attack capabilities, deterrence and psychological pressure, which could somewhat change the balance of the conflict. However, these operations come with risks of escalation and require careful planning and execution to be effective.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a military reversal of the war in Ukraine, the United States, followed by France and Britain, have authorized Ukraine to use advanced long-range…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2362,2845,7,3830],"tags":[5911,58,5191,5190,1156,1976,3395],"class_list":["post-21474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-military-science","category-military-strategy-doctrines","category-research","category-war-in-ukraine","tag-atacms","tag-russia","tag-scalp-eg","tag-storm-shadow","tag-ukraine","tag-war","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21474"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21474\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21477,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21474\/revisions\/21477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}